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Author Topic: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races  (Read 14114 times)
smoltchanov
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« Reply #75 on: May 04, 2012, 08:44:38 am »
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Even though I'd love to see a Democrat in this seat (and I do think Donnelly COULD beat Mourdock, though it would be a tough battle), I honestly think the country is better served by having more Republicans in Congress who don't see the anyone with different political views as "the enemy."  Although I disagree with many of his positions, Lugar is one of the better members of the current Republican Senate caucus (not saying much, but still, he's always seemed like a decent enough guy).  So I hope Lugar wins the primary, even though there's no way Donnelly can beat him.  Unfortunately, don't think there is much of a chance of Lugar winning and could easily see him losing by a larger than expected margin.  Mourdock has the momentum in the primary, as best as I can tell.  If Mourdock wins the primary though, then Donnelly 2012!

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« Reply #76 on: May 04, 2012, 10:03:18 am »
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Lugar apparently in deep sh*t:

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INDIANAPOLIS - U.S. Sen. Richard G. Lugar's iconic career of elected public service appears to be in great jeopardy. A Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground Poll conducted Monday and Tuesday shows that Lugar is trailing Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock 48-38% in Indiana's Republican Senate primary. That head-to-head figure includes so-called "leaners," who could conceivably change their minds in the final 72 hours of the campaign. Without the leans, Mourdock still leads 43-35%.

Based on this survey data, Howey Politics Indiana is moving the Senate race into a "Likely Mourdock" category. It had been "Leans Lugar" until the March 26-28 Howey/DePauw survey had Lugar leading Mourdock 42-35%, at which time HPI moved the Senate race into "Tossup."

The survey, conducted by Republican pollster Christine Matthews of Bellwether Research and Democratic pollster Fred Yang of Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, is based on 700 likely voters with a +/- margin of error at 3.7%. The sample was made up of 76% Republicans, 14% independent, 8% independent/lean Republican, 1% lean Democrat and 1% independent/lean Democrat. Survey top lines will be posted under the "Howey/DePauw Poll" tab at www.howeypolitics.com.

http://howeypolitics.com
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« Reply #77 on: May 04, 2012, 12:19:00 pm »
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Silent Joe will lose regardless of who he faces. Only Bayh would have a chance of beating either one. The Dem bench is rather sad around here.
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Congressional Races
Jackie Walorski (R/IN-2)
Marlin Stutzman (R/IN-3)
Todd Rokita (R/IN-4)
Chard Reid (Lib/IN-5)
Luke Messer (R/IN-6)
Tom Massie (R/KY-4)
David Brat (R/VA-7)
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« Reply #78 on: May 04, 2012, 03:23:16 pm »
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Thanks to a photo posted on Tm's Facebook, I was able to get a chuckle at Lugar's expense: a recent mailer of his uses the slogan "Serious leadership for serious times"...with a picture of an old man laughing with Lugar. Uh...
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #79 on: May 04, 2012, 09:46:47 pm »
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Silent Joe will lose regardless of who he faces. Only Bayh would have a chance of beating either one. The Dem bench is rather sad around here.
Don't be so sure - Mourdock is unappealing to moderate voters and will also struggle to gain financial support from the establishment. There is another difference - with Lugar, you have a safe race, and you can invest in other states, such as Ohio and Missouri. With Mourdock, money will have to be spent to defend this seat, money that could be going to defeat liberal Democrats in other races.

Tuesday will be a test to see just how interested Republicans are in taking back the Senate.
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« Reply #80 on: May 04, 2012, 10:19:02 pm »
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Santorum endorses Mourdock. Maybe I should have a horse in this one... Tongue
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #81 on: May 04, 2012, 10:19:44 pm »
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In the past week, Mourdock has received more out-of-state support, this time from Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann, and now Rick Santorum. There's some irony here - Richard Mourdock is claiming that Lugar isn't a true Hoosier and doesn't have true Hoosier values, yet all of the endorsements he is touting are from out-of-state politicians, while the endorsements that Dick Lugar are touting (mainly Daniels and Skillman, as well as the many mayors) are in-state. 
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« Reply #82 on: May 05, 2012, 05:41:01 am »
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If Mourdock wins, who will you support in the GE, tmth?
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« Reply #83 on: May 05, 2012, 08:26:21 am »
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Who is Dan Quayle endorsing?
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« Reply #84 on: May 05, 2012, 08:29:43 am »
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Who is Dan Quayle endorsing?

J. Danforth Quayle (R-IN) is too concerned with life in Arizona.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #85 on: May 05, 2012, 08:41:28 am »
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If Mourdock wins, who will you support in the GE, tmth?
Undecided. I will most likely just write-in Lugar, as I don't like Donnelly or Mourdock. Gun to my head, I'd probably vote for Donnelly.
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« Reply #86 on: May 06, 2012, 02:04:02 pm »
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I'm sure this has already been asked somewhere, but what are the laws in Indiana with regards to running as an independent or write-in? Any chance Lugar goes that route?
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« Reply #87 on: May 06, 2012, 02:07:49 pm »
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I'm sure this has already been asked somewhere, but what the laws in Indiana with regards to running as an independent or write-in? Any chance Lugar goes that route?

Indiana has a sore loser law, so no.
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« Reply #88 on: May 06, 2012, 02:47:45 pm »
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I'm sure this has already been asked somewhere, but what are the laws in Indiana with regards to running as an independent or write-in? Any chance Lugar goes that route?
Unfortunately, there is a sore loser law in effect. That won't stop me from writing him in if he happens to lose in the primary.

If there wasn't, I seriously believe Lugar could win as a write-in, and would probably be favored if he had ran as an Independent.
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« Reply #89 on: May 06, 2012, 02:58:56 pm »
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If Lugar were able to run as an Indie it would make things very interesting. I'm kinda torn about sore loser laws.
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Congressional Races
Jackie Walorski (R/IN-2)
Marlin Stutzman (R/IN-3)
Todd Rokita (R/IN-4)
Chard Reid (Lib/IN-5)
Luke Messer (R/IN-6)
Tom Massie (R/KY-4)
David Brat (R/VA-7)
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« Reply #90 on: May 06, 2012, 03:24:24 pm »
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I'm sure this has already been asked somewhere, but what are the laws in Indiana with regards to running as an independent or write-in? Any chance Lugar goes that route?
Unfortunately, there is a sore loser law in effect. That won't stop me from writing him in if he happens to lose in the primary.

If there wasn't, I seriously believe Lugar could win as a write-in, and would probably be favored if he had ran as an Independent.

So, if a plurality of Indianans decided to write in Lugar's name, he couldn't be declared the winner?
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #91 on: May 06, 2012, 03:31:19 pm »
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I'm sure this has already been asked somewhere, but what are the laws in Indiana with regards to running as an independent or write-in? Any chance Lugar goes that route?
Unfortunately, there is a sore loser law in effect. That won't stop me from writing him in if he happens to lose in the primary.

If there wasn't, I seriously believe Lugar could win as a write-in, and would probably be favored if he had ran as an Independent.

So, if a plurality of Indianans decided to write in Lugar's name, he couldn't be declared the winner?

Hmm, regardless, there's no way this could happen, as Lugar will not accept write-in votes.

Since he has so much respect for this state and the GOP, I'm 90% certain he'd endorse Mourdock either Tuesday night or shortly afterwards, and will do what he can to help Mourdock win in the General Election. In comparison, Mourdock has stated he may not endorse Lugar if Lugar wins the primary. Just goes to show you which candidate is a class act and which isn't.
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« Reply #92 on: May 06, 2012, 07:19:00 pm »
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Herman Cain is claiming Mourdock supports 9-9-9... is that true?
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« Reply #93 on: May 07, 2012, 12:29:20 am »
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Seems like there might be quite a few Obama-Lugar voters and a number of Romney-Donnelly voters.  Obama-Murdock voters will be a null set.   Romney will have to win big in Indiana for Murdock to win.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #94 on: May 07, 2012, 04:39:38 pm »
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Things are getting crazy.

I still think Lugar has a shot tomorrow, regardless of what the most recent poll says. Most other polls have shown Lugar narrowly leading or tied with Mourdock, and the recent Lugar internal had him ahead.

I know, generally undecideds break against the incumbent. I think this race might be slightly different, however, as Mourdock still doesn't have too high of name recognition and Lugar is see favorably still by a lot of voters. Lugar should also be thankful that there are few competitive Democratic primaries across the state (none statewide), as that could lead to an abnormally high amount of Democrats voting in the GOP primary. Also, most of the undecided voters were women, which have been favoring Lugar throughout the primary.

Regarding Congressional races, things are pretty interesting. Starting next year, Marlin Stutzman will be the senior Republican congressman from Indiana, despite only winning in 2010. I think Lugar should have made the seniority argument more; Republicans have a good shot at winning both Senate and House, yet the ability to direct more funds here will be limited, as we have one of the youngest groups of Republican lawmakers out there. Dan Coats would be our only hope, which doesn't say much.

Honestly can't give you all too much information on any races except the 8th and 9th. Apparently a poll came out today by GOP congressional leaders in the 8th that has Tea Party challenger Kristi Risk up 8 on Rep. Buchson. Buchson probably hasn't campaigned as much as he should have, but I expect him to hang on. It'll be closer than it should be though for an incumbent. He's just not a good campaigner, point blank.

Todd Young is running unopposed in the 9th for GOP. On Democratic side, there are 5 candidates I believe. The race is completely wide open, and there is no "establishment" pick. I honestly am not sure who the nominee will be. If I had to bet, I'd bet on John George, the formal Army general. Shelli Yoder has picked up some nice endorsements, specifically the mayor of Bloomington. She's also really hot (Wink), however, got in the race at the last second.

I stand by my belief the Indiana House delegation will go 7-2 in favor of Republicans this fall.
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« Reply #95 on: May 07, 2012, 05:05:49 pm »
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The Fix has a pretty good article comparing a potential Lugar loss to other historical Senate primary upsets.
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« Reply #96 on: May 07, 2012, 05:58:31 pm »
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CNN had a report from Dana Bash about a senior Indiana Republican saying he's seen Lugar's internal- "he will lose, and it won't be close." Politico reported something similar over the weekend. I'd say between 10-13 myself.
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Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
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« Reply #97 on: May 07, 2012, 07:43:14 pm »
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I'm sure this has already been asked somewhere, but what are the laws in Indiana with regards to running as an independent or write-in? Any chance Lugar goes that route?
Unfortunately, there is a sore loser law in effect. That won't stop me from writing him in if he happens to lose in the primary.

If there wasn't, I seriously believe Lugar could win as a write-in, and would probably be favored if he had ran as an Independent.

It is interesting you have such disdain for Mourdock for the reasons you described elsewhere, while on the other hand the National Review in an editorial endorsing him, characterizes him as "low key" and "capable, competent conservative."  With that trio of ecomimums attending the word "conservative," while Mourdock may be too rigid as a "conservative" for RINO types like me (it depends), it hardly renders him an object of derision and disdain.

You clearly have a different view of the appropriateness of such ecomimums. Did something in particular about him cause you to cast the Mourdock man into Mordor Tmthforu94?

Anyway, the stench of death about Lugar most noisome haunts my mind's eye, and I cannot cast it away. I see his body on the floor when the fat lady sings.
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« Reply #98 on: May 07, 2012, 09:16:08 pm »
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Lugar has an impressive and generally sensible record when it comes to foreign policy, and he's a very valuable player in the Senate for it.  I've always admired him on this and a host of other things and I'd definitely vote for him if I could. However, he can't stay there in the Senate forever, and it's true he does come across as old and a bit too establishment at this point.  I think the residence question might be what's hurt him the most.
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« Reply #99 on: May 07, 2012, 09:21:19 pm »
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Even Lugar's team has conceded that residency became an issue- but more as a symbol than the legalities.
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
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