Last poll had Lugar up 44-42. I want to say it was Magellan, but I can't recall for sure...
How the race is breaking down here:
Mourdock - Receiving momentum for the Palin and Bachmann endorsements as in media coverage. On the flip side, anyone who likes them probably already supported Mourdock, and this could potentially turn undecided voters who are more mainstream away from his campaign.
Lugar - Has received a flood of newspaper endorsements and his supporters are doing great work (myself included) at getting editorials in the paper. It's about impossible to pick up a paper in this state and not see a positive article on Senator Lugar.
Advertising-wise, Lugar has an edge, which is to be expected. Was on the ground down in Southern Indiana doing disaster relief and saw more Mourdock signs down there, which is to be expected.
Momentum isn't breaking at the last moment for either, and I doubt it will. It'll largely be a turnout competition, and to be honest, while his supporters aren't as energetic, Lugar has a better organization in-state. There will be poll workers at practically every precinct in my county for Lugar...not the case for Mourdock, or at least as of this evening.
I'm holding off on a prediction - I feel slightly sick to my stomach, which has me worried Mourdock may pull off an upset. Gotta remember - many Hoosiers have a very positive view of Lugar, and he should receive a decent chunk of the vote from voters who have no clue who to vote for but recognize his name, as well as Independents and Democrats. There is no "Democrats for Mourdock" drive going here to speak of.
LUGAR 2012!
Even though I'd love to see a Democrat in this seat (and I do think Donnelly COULD beat Mourdock, though it would be a tough battle), I honestly think the country is better served by having more Republicans in Congress who don't see the anyone with different political views as "the enemy." Although I disagree with many of his positions, Lugar is one of the better members of the current Republican Senate caucus (not saying much, but still, he's always seemed like a decent enough guy). So I hope Lugar wins the primary, even though there's no way Donnelly can beat him. Unfortunately, don't think there is much of a chance of Lugar winning and could easily see him losing by a larger than expected margin. Mourdock has the momentum in the primary, as best as I can tell. If Mourdock wins the primary though, then Donnelly 2012!
