Indiana 2012 Congressional Races

[tmthforu94]

United States Senate:

Republican Candidate
State Treasurer Richard Mourdock

Democratic Candidate
Congressman Joe Donnelly

Tmth Rating: Tilt Republican

US House Races:

IN-01
Republican Candidate
Mr. Joel Phelps

Democratic Candidate
Congressman Pete Visclosky

Tmth Rating: Safe Democratic

IN-02
Republican Candidate
Ms. Jackie Walorski

Democratic Candidate
Mr. Brendan Mullen

Tmth Rating: Likely Republican

IN-03
Republican Candidate
Congressman Marlin Stutzman

Democratic Candidate
Rev. Kevin Boyd

Tmth Rating: Safe Republican

IN-04
Republican Candidate
Congressman Todd Rokita

Democratic Candidate
Ms. Tara Nelson

Tmth Rating: Safe Republican

IN-05
Republican Candidate
Ms. Susan Brooks

Democratic Candidate
Mr. Scott Reske

Tmth Rating: Safe Republican

IN-06
Republican Candidate
Mr. Luke Messer

Democratic Candidate
Mr. Brad Bookout

Tmth Rating: Safe Republican

IN-07
Republican Candidate
Mr. Carlos May

Democratic Candidate
Congressman Andre Carson

Tmth Rating: Safe Democratic

IN-08
Republican Candidate
Congressman Larry Bucshon

Democratic Candidate
Mr. Dave Crooks

Tmth Rating: Likely Republican

IN-09
Republican Candidate
Congressman Todd Young

Democratic Candidate
Ms. Shelli Yoder

Tmth Rating: Likely Republican

Analysis: Joe Donnelly is pretty decent candidate for Indiana. There are two area's he fails at though - Area 1 is he isn't as likeable as a Democrat needs to be to win. Secondly is his support for Obamacare - that right there killed him for me, and I know many other Lugar Republicans feel the same way. Mourdock is way out there, but at the end of the day, people are going to be voting as a referendum on Barack Obama, and because of that, I expect Mourdock to win by around 5 points.

For the House races, the only race that could be somewhat close is my district, the "Bloody 8th". Walorski has things wrapped up in the 2nd, and I don't think Young was ever in serious trouble in the 9th. Bucshon just isn't that good of a politician, and his opponent, Dave Crooks, has outraised him. Democrats have an eye on this seat, but they aren't focusing too much - neither candidate has been on the air much, but it's a ground game operation, and at the end of the day, I still expect Bucshon to win by around a 55-45 margin - he just isn't controversial enough to lose.

[tmthforu94]

http://www.jconline.com/article/20110206/NEWS02/102060344/

Though I guess Mourdock hasn't officially declared it, he's "made a decision" and will begin touring the state in a couple weeks to give the special announcement.

[tmthforu94]

http://www.jconline.com/article/20110206/NEWS02/102060344/

Though I guess Mourdock hasn't officially declared it, he's "made a decision" and will begin touring the state in a couple weeks to give the special announcement.

Do you think it might be possible he is doing this to get his name out there, bring in funds, than run for Governor?

No, he's said he's said, that "a lot of people have been asking me if I'm going to run for the US Senate seat. I've made a decision, and within a couple weeks, I'll be touring the state to make a special announcement.

And besides, he's not going to run for Governor. That's Pence's divine right.

[tmthforu94]

A better Republican candidate probably would have won (which would have restored the district's tradition of unseating incumbents in years ending in zero).

She came very close to unseating someone who won by just 20 points 2 years earlier, and probably would have won if it hadn't been for the Libertarian in the race. Was she the greatest campaigner in the world? No, but I don't think we could (or can) get anyone better with more name recognition.

Republicans will create a Walorski-friendly district. I've heard legislators talking about it. In November 2012, Jackie Walorski will be elected to the US House with over 50%. I'm calling it now.

[tmthforu94]

http://www.indystar.com/article/20110331/LOCAL01/103310353/1115/LOCAL0104/Donnelly-floats-ideas-Senate-campaign

Joe Donnelly appears to be strongly considering a run for the Senate to avoid losing to Jackie Walorski. No surprise here at all. I'm confident Lugar would be able to easily beat him, though not so sure on Mourdock.

[tmthforu94]

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/05/donnelly-to-ann.php

"Silent Joe" apparently has decided he wants to lose to Richard Lugar/Mourdock, and will be announcing his quest to do just that on Monday.

[tmthforu94]

Dems got to hand select their dream candidate in 2010.  A young, handsome, "moderate" representative, and he was destroyed by an old has-been former Senator.

He would have beat any other Republican besides Stutzman.

Stutzman would have crushed Ellsworth. He was the perfect candidate for Indiana.

[tmthforu94]

http://www.southbendtribune.com/sbt-goshen-lawyer-running-for-congress-20110506,0,6197225.story

There are now two candidates in the race for IN-02, most notably Jackie Walorski. She has officially declared a run. I've also heard, regarding IN-09, that Baron Hill will not be challenging Todd Young to a rematch.

[tmthforu94]

I wonder if Hill has his eyes on a statewide race later on. Like for Senate in 2016. Coats doesn't seem like someone that would get entrenched very much and might even retire at that point. It is also possible that Hill is done with politics, I guess.

Well, he's run tight races Literally for the last 5 elections, winning 3 and losing 2, so "Candidate Fatigue" might be setting in.

He only lost once.

I can't see Hill running - if he were to run, he would have ran in 2012, probably for Governor.

[tmthforu94]

http://www.courierpress.com/news/2011/jul/17/missteps-may-imperil-mourdocks-bid/?partner=yahoo_feeds

A good article on the 2012 race, why Mourdock doesn't have as great of a chance as people think.

Worked the GOP stand at the county fair today, met some interesting folks. One kept talking on and on about communism, I thought I had entered a time machine. It's becoming clearer to me the less-educated folks around here are supported Mourdock while just about everyone else is supporting Lugar. Also found a Romney/Mourdock supporter, which literally caused me to LOL.

[tmthforu94]

The Mourdock Facebook Page has pretty much turned into a hate-fest on Lugar, with both Mourdock and supporters participating in it. Here are some examples of what we're having to deal with:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

- Someone clearly hasn't done their research

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

- Apparently I'm a RINO

Someone actually disagreed once with a Mourdock statement and was called a fool and an idiot.

All of these were just from the past few days. There are many more stashed away.

In closing, Richard Mourdock has also created a couple ad's, all of the recent ones attacking Lugar. Here is the most offensive and disgusting one (IMO):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWjnHUw-shE&feature=player_embedded

[tmthforu94]

Lugar needs to go down. He has been in Senate way to long, and Indiana needs a change with Mourdock.

Typical response I've been seeing. Who cares who is opponent is? Who cares if Mourdock has poor character and would be an uncompromisable Senator who'd bring absolutely nothing to the table? Let's just get that ole' fart out of there! I think it's telling of a person when they run a downright hateful, negative campaign from the very get-go. I can't even imagine how bad he and his supporters are going to get next Spring.

One thing I can already see - this campaign has already turned into a hatefest on Lugar, which seems to be what Mourdock wants. Mourdock Campaign Strategy: Get as many people as possible to completely despise Lugar in hope's they'll vote for whoever else is on the ballot.

My only wish is that Mourdock focuses his campaign on the issues and what he stands for, not everything he thinks Lugar has done wrong. I would have actually been somewhat tempted to vote for him if he had done that from the start.

[tmthforu94]

Lugar needs to go down. He has been in Senate way to long, and Indiana needs a change with Mourdock.

Typical response I've been seeing. Who cares who is opponent is? Who cares if Mourdock has poor character and would be an uncompromisable Senator who'd bring absolutely nothing to the table? Let's just get that ole' fart out of there! I think it's telling of a person when they run a downright hateful, negative campaign from the very get-go. I can't even imagine how bad he and his supporters are going to get next Spring.

One thing I can already see - this campaign has already turned into a hatefest on Lugar, which seems to be what Mourdock wants. Mourdock Campaign Strategy: Get as many people as possible to completely despise Lugar in hope's they'll vote for whoever else is on the ballot.

My only wish is that Mourdock focuses his campaign on the issues and what he stands for, not everything he thinks Lugar has done wrong. I would have actually been somewhat tempted to vote for him if he had done that from the start.

You're saying that you are not a Murdock supporter? (If I'm reading your post correctly). I think Lugar is a RINO and needs to go NOW. Check his ACU rating and I'm sure it will be terrible (under 80%). Go Mourdock!

That's exactly what I've been saying for months. Dick Lugar is not a liberal. He has a 71% rating from the ACU, and I believe voted with Reagan more than any other Senator in the 80's.

You probably know little about Mourdock, you just know you don't like Lugar. Further proving my point, and how Mourdock's strategy is (unfortunately) at least somewhat working.

[tmthforu94]

Well, you're from Indiana, and I guess you know who you're voting for and who's in the race. I just don't understand why anyone would want to vote for an old RINO like him, and he's been in the Senate for too long and it's time to go. I respect your support of Lugar, and he has done some good things in the past, but, it's time for him to go. I'm from NJ, and you're from his home state, so, your vote and support of Lugar makes my support of Mourdock not count. 

I like Lugar a lot, but I was honestly hoping to see him retire. He didn't, and I think his opponent would do a much worse job in the Senate, which is why I'm supporting Lugar's reelection bid. If Stutzman had ran, I probably would have voted for him over Lugar. Same with Daniels or Skillman (though neither would ever challenge him). I'm not 100% impressed with Lugar's voting record, but I know that I probably wouldn't be 100% impressed with a Senator Mourdock voting record, either.

Hopefully Republicans will have a majority and the White House after 2012. I also have reason to believe this will be Lugar's last term, should he win in 2012.

[tmthforu94]

So Lugar is a "RINO". Has he ever really cost the Republicans a vote on anything? What did he do that people want to get rid of him so badly for? Unless there's some glaring issue with him, why throw out a popular senator who could probably cruise to reelection for someone loud and controversial?

There's this "purity test" I suppose you have to pass with flying colors. I'm sure the National GOP will want Lugar to win this; if Mourdock wins, they may have to put some money into the race. With Lugar it's a very safe seat. This situation is similar to Delaware, except Mourdock would actually have a good chance of winning in the general election.

[tmthforu94]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/11/richard-lugar-opponent-out-of-touch-economy-stocks_n_924091.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I'd have to do some research, but it wouldn't make sense to me that "un-confirming" a nominee would be Constitutional. If that's correct, this is hilarious, considering Mourdock's been going around bragging how he'll be a strict follower of the Constitution. Can't wait to see how he spins this.

[tmthforu94]

http://www.kristiriskforcongress.com/index.htm

Kristi Risk has announced she'll be a candidate for the 8th Congressional District, seeking the Republican nomination. She will be challenging Congressman Larry Bucshon in the primary. Kristi narrowly lost to Larry Buchson in the 2010 primary.

I actually think Risk could actually win this - Buchson rode the wave, and because of that, he still has pretty low name recognition, and with Risk's aggressive 2010 campaign, she's probably nearly as well known in the district as he is. This will be a typical establishment vs. Tea Party battle. She's going after Buchson's vote on the debt ceiling, Afghan and Libyan wars, Patriot Act, and a couple other minor issues.

Don't ask me what I'm going to do in this race, because I don't know yet. Buchson's views are much more in line with mine, but I have a personal relationship with Risk that'll make it difficult for me not to support her.

[tmthforu94]

I just finished making a rather upset call to the Mourdock campaign, campaigning about the negativity, especially on Facebook, and the campaign continuing to allow hateful comments towards Lugar being posted on their wall. I said that while some Tea Party Republicans may think that behavior is okay, a majority of Republicans and Hoosiers in general want a campaign that's focused on creating jobs, not on how old Senator Lugar is. The person I was talking to seem rather young, and it was hard for me to get too worked up since he was kept saying "I understand" and "I agree". Maybe I converted him.

Now it's on to waiting to see if a certain hateful post that was made which I've requested multiple times by message and now by phone will be removed. If it isn't removed, I'll start making weekly calls.

[tmthforu94]

Likely not. The person on the phone probably didn't care about you or Mourdock and just wanted the job.

We'll see - I've abstained from ever debating someone on the Mourdock page, but I just did - some loser tried to say Lugar is never visiting Hoosiers and is only doing it now because an election's coming up. I can't even begin to describe how big of a lie that is.

The post I'm waiting for them to delete is still up. Maybe I'll start with daily calls.

[tmthforu94]

In a "discussion" with someone now on Mourdock's page over everything in general. They tried to say Lugar is depending on out of state groups to back him, and I pointed out nearly 90% of Lugar contributions in the last quarter came from Hoosiers.

His response "Last Quarter..." At first, I thought he was being a smartie or something, but then I realized he had no clue what I was talking about.

Ironic, because normally around this time in a "discussion" I'm dismissed as being too young to know what I'm talking about.

[tmthforu94]

The Indianapolis Star has released several articles about Mourdock.

In December, Mourdock had a 100-donor challenge, and he failed to get even 100 people to donate to his campaign. Brian Howey of the Star called him out for it. Mourdock then retaliated that it was still success as they raised money, and now Mourdock supporter's are attacking Howey and calling him a liar. Talk about arrogance/ignorance.

Also, in the past year, Mourdock only attended approximately 34% of meetings he was supposed to attend as Treasurer, compared to Lugar, who only missed 4 votes in the Senate.

[tmthforu94]

Bumping for Phil

Oh, and there's a debate tonight. Any other Hoosier's planning on watching?

[tmthforu94]

The debate just ended. Hoping someone else watched it so I can have someone to discuss it with!

Saying this unbiased, I think the debate was a wash, which is good news for Lugar. I was really worried Senator Lugar would come across as, well, old, but he held his own, and certainly exhibited his vast knowledge when the debate turned to foreign policy.

Tonight was Mourdock's big chance to really turn this race in his favor, and I don't think he did that. The two agreed all too often, which actually surprised me, as I thought Mourdock would go after Lugar more than he did. A poll done on one of the site's that showed the debate shows 52% saying Lugar won while 48% saying Mourdock.

IMHO, Lugar is on track to winning the May 8th primary, but things can still change.

[tmthforu94]

http://www.indystar.com/article/20120411/NEWS05/120411037/Lugar-Mourdock-leave-debate-without-bruises-advantage?odyssey=tab%7Ctopnews%7Ctext%7CNews

You must be logged in to read this quote.

...

Completely agree.

[tmthforu94]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/04/american-action-network-up-with-massive-buy-behind-120394.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

American Action Network will be spending almost $600,000 on anti-Mourdock ads in Indiana. That's probably not much less than the total amount of funds Mourdock raised in 2011. Good thing I don't watch local stations too often.

Lugar's camp seems to be focusing a lot more on Mourdock's record as Treasurer, which honestly hasn't been too great. While there's been nothing from the campaign, there's been more discussion on the Twitter and blogging world regarding statement's Mourdock has made regarding his "not attending" (putting it politely) the Vietnam war.