Have fun Republicans

[danwxman]

The Democrats have been the majority in this country since FDR. But the sea is changing...the country is now dead even between Republicans and Democrats...and now it seems we are heading into a Republican majority.

The argument could certainly be made that for a long time...Democrats had too much power. When one group has too much power, they tend to corrupt themselves. I am very much for a two-party government.

Just be careful not to get too corrupt, or you will destroy yourselves. Just since the election, we have Tom Delay changing the rules, rogue righties blocking intelligence reform, and an Oklahoma Republican senator sneaking a provision into a spending bill to allow him to look at your tax returns.

No doubt the slight majority of this country is now Republican. We may be heading for 40 years of a Republican majority, or it may just be lasting a few years. Who knows. Just take care.

[MODU]

Just wait till us third-party/independents come to power! 

[The Vorlon]

I really do think there legitimately is an opening for a third party.

There are a ton of folks who, like me,  are socially pretty liberal, but fiscally pretty conservative. 

Both parties have abandoned these people to "gin up the base"

I don't think a thitd party has a chance to "win" but I bet a credible and moderate 3rd party candidate for Prez might peel off 20% or so, and at 20% the next election cycle both main parties would stampede back towards the middle.

I still think that if it were not for Perot, Perot would have won in 1992.

[danwxman]

I really do think there legitimately is an opening for a third party.

There are a ton of folks who, like me,  are socially pretty liberal, but fiscally pretty conservative. 

Both parties have abandoned these people to "gin up the base"

I don't think a thitd party has a chance to "win" but I bet a credible and moderate 3rd party candidate for Prez might peel off 20% or so, and at 20% the next election cycle both main parties would stampede back towards the middle.

I still think that if it were not for Perot, Perot would have won in 1992.

The country is *extremely* partisan right now, at least on the national level. But like I said in another thread...focus on races where a candidate is running unopposed by the other major party. The chances of winning aren't that much better, but you really get the party's name out there and it's a good way to get first-time voters for your party.

[Democratic Hawk]

Yes, the Democratic Party doesn't seem to the majority party any more and that position has been steadily eroding since the mid-1960s, execlerated dramatically in the mid-1990s. I'd say things are pretty even now. If you look at the state legislatures, Democrats and Republicans are virtually neck-and-neck but it's advantage GOP, for the time being anyway, in that they hold the presidency, Congress and most state governors

The Republican Party may implode one day like the British Conservative did

The US is undoubtedly becoming less liberal but is it really becoming more conservative? The largest single ideological plurality are self-styled moderates - and the dominant party will be that who captures their hearts and minds. If the Democratic Party moves to the ideological centre (as the British Labour Party did); then they will once again be the majority party. I honestly, and most sincerely believe that, a more centrist Democrat could have beaten Bush

The writing is far from written on the wall as far as the Democratic Party is concerned. It needs to take a good hard look at itself and decide whether it belongs as much in the heartland as it does the periphery

Dave

[A18]

I still think that if it were not for Perot, Perot would have won in 1992.

lol. Very true.

[Democratic Hawk]

As Larry Sabato said "Today's 'ins' are tomorrow's 'outs'"

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Democrats have been the majority in this country since FDR.

Not true

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Changed. Unless 1968 is thought of as the present

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Almost certainly untrue. While there is no empirical evidence for this (not all states register by party. Which is stupid and seems to be designed to confuse everyone) evidence from the states that do indicate that there are a lot more registered Democrats than Republicans.
However there's a whole mountain of evidence showing that turnout among Democrats is far, far, far lower than among Republicans and that Democrats are far more likely to vote against their party than Republicans.
While the Presidential electorate was split 37/37, if you really believe that turnout was exactly the same among all demographic and political groups, then you sir, are a fool.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

There is not a shred of evidence to support that.
There is a lot of evidence to suggest that the Republican Party has a slight advantage as far as the Presidency goes, but this has been the case since 1968, and slight is better than the "lock" on the electoral collage that the GOP was assumed to have in the '80's.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I seriously doubt that

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The country is *extremely* partisan right now, at least on the national level.

Really?

Then explain, if the above statement is true, how come Kerry lost West Virginia, Arkansas, Kentucky and Louisiana?

Without resorting to offensive smears please

[DaleC76]

The country is *extremely* partisan right now, at least on the national level.

Really?

Then explain, if the above statement is true, how come Kerry lost West Virginia, Arkansas, Kentucky and Louisiana?

I know that WV and AR have a Democratic majority in their Congressional delegations, but why include LA and KY?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The country is *extremely* partisan right now, at least on the national level.

Really?

Then explain, if the above statement is true, how come Kerry lost West Virginia, Arkansas, Kentucky and Louisiana?

I know that WV and AR have a Democratic majority in their Congressional delegations, but why include LA and KY?

57% of Registered voters in KY and LA are Democrats.

[Alcon]

Oklahoma, too, for that matter, I believe, is primarily Democratic. Kerry didn't even win a single county there.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oklahoma, too, for that matter, I believe, is primarily Democratic. Kerry didn't even win a single county there.

About 53% of Registered voters in Oklahoma are Democrats

[??????????]

Al,

Have you thought that maybe a lot of those registered Democrats in Red...er Blue (or whatever the hell their called now) states feel the way Zel Miller feels about the party. That the Democrats have swung to far to the left and the national party is out of touch with the common blue collar man and as punishment they are voting Republican until Democrats moderate?

[danwxman]

The country is *extremely* partisan right now, at least on the national level.

Really?

Then explain, if the above statement is true, how come Kerry lost West Virginia, Arkansas, Kentucky and Louisiana?

Without resorting to offensive smears please

Umm because there a lot of partisan Democrats and a lot of partisan Republicans.

[ATFFL]

The country is *extremely* partisan right now, at least on the national level.

Really?

Then explain, if the above statement is true, how come Kerry lost West Virginia, Arkansas, Kentucky and Louisiana?

Without resorting to offensive smears please

Umm because there a lot of partisan Democrats and a lot of partisan Republicans.

All the states Al listed have many more registered Democrats than Republicans.

[danwxman]

The country is *extremely* partisan right now, at least on the national level.

Really?

Then explain, if the above statement is true, how come Kerry lost West Virginia, Arkansas, Kentucky and Louisiana?

Without resorting to offensive smears please

Umm because there a lot of partisan Democrats and a lot of partisan Republicans.

All the states Al listed have many more registered Democrats than Republicans.

Not all Democrats and Republicans are partisans.

[ATFFL]

The country is *extremely* partisan right now, at least on the national level.

Really?

Then explain, if the above statement is true, how come Kerry lost West Virginia, Arkansas, Kentucky and Louisiana?

Without resorting to offensive smears please

Umm because there a lot of partisan Democrats and a lot of partisan Republicans.

All the states Al listed have many more registered Democrats than Republicans.

Not all Democrats and Republicans are partisans.

Then why did you answer the initial question the way you did?

[danwxman]

The country is *extremely* partisan right now, at least on the national level.

Really?

Then explain, if the above statement is true, how come Kerry lost West Virginia, Arkansas, Kentucky and Louisiana?

Without resorting to offensive smears please

Umm because there a lot of partisan Democrats and a lot of partisan Republicans.

All the states Al listed have many more registered Democrats than Republicans.

Not all Democrats and Republicans are partisans.

Then why did you answer the initial question the way you did?

My original point is that we have a very polarized, partisan country right now. What is the problem?

[ATFFL]

The country is *extremely* partisan right now, at least on the national level.

Really?

Then explain, if the above statement is true, how come Kerry lost West Virginia, Arkansas, Kentucky and Louisiana?

Without resorting to offensive smears please

Umm because there a lot of partisan Democrats and a lot of partisan Republicans.

All the states Al listed have many more registered Democrats than Republicans.

Not all Democrats and Republicans are partisans.

Then why did you answer the initial question the way you did?

My original point is that we have a very polarized, partisan country right now. What is the problem?

Your statement was that we are a highly partisan and polarized nation.  It would then follow that members of a party would support their party heavily.

Al countered with four examples of states where Democrats have a large advantage in registration numbers.

You answered by saying there are a lot of partisans. 

This does not explain how states where Democrats heavily outnumber Republicans voted for the Republican for President.

[danwxman]

The country is *extremely* partisan right now, at least on the national level.

Really?

Then explain, if the above statement is true, how come Kerry lost West Virginia, Arkansas, Kentucky and Louisiana?

Without resorting to offensive smears please

Umm because there a lot of partisan Democrats and a lot of partisan Republicans.

All the states Al listed have many more registered Democrats than Republicans.

Not all Democrats and Republicans are partisans.

Then why did you answer the initial question the way you did?

My original point is that we have a very polarized, partisan country right now. What is the problem?

Your statement was that we are a highly partisan and polarized nation.  It would then follow that members of a party would support their party heavily.

Al countered with four examples of states where Democrats have a large advantage in registration numbers.

You answered by saying there are a lot of partisans. 

This does not explain how states where Democrats heavily outnumber Republicans voted for the Republican for President.

That is correct, but it's *not* my point. There are a lot of partisan Democrats and partisan Republicans....just as there are moderate Democrats and Republicans.

[Gabu]

Al,

Have you thought that maybe a lot of those registered Democrats in Red...er Blue (or whatever the hell their called now) states feel the way Zel Miller feels about the party. That the Democrats have swung to far to the left and the national party is out of touch with the common blue collar man and as punishment they are voting Republican until Democrats moderate?

That was his point; he was refuting the idea that the country is overwhelmingly partisan.

[Gustaf]

The Republican advantage in presidential elections is decreasing rather than the other way around, IMHO.

From 1968 until 1988, roughly, the GOP had a lock on the presidency. What we've seen in the 90s is merely this national trend hitting the state level and thus affecting congress. On the presidential level the Democrats are looking a lot better now than they did 15 years ago. That's why we're not entering an era of GOP domination. Trend-wise, we're leaving it, even though we won't realize that until some time has passed.

[Beet]

Suppose you are a registered Democrat living in Alabama and switch your party over to Republican. If you are like most people, you are probably not going to run out to the DMV and ask for your voter registration card back just so you can erase the x mark next to "Democrat" and check "Republican".

You are simply going to start voting Republican and saying that you're a Republican in public opinion polls. Which is why voter registration should be taken with a grain of salt. Change in that department is even more glacial than the Republican re-alignment in the South that took place 1964-2004.

I basically agree with Gustaf's analysis. The 1992 election was a partial re-alignment ending the Republican lock on the Presidency. Clinton started something, but he didn't really finish it.

[iosip]

No doubt the slight majority of this country is now Republican.

the majority of OFFICEHOLDERS are republican.

democrats have a clear edge among actual PEOPLE...by about the same margin as in 1980.