The NY-26 Election. Have fun but keep your shirt on.

[nclib]

So, that means it's safe Corwin ... ?

Or is that Davis guy a strongly conservative Democrat ?

Being from the area, I believe that Davis would hurt Corwin a lot more than he would help her.  He is extremely conservative and would spend a lot of his own money to court the conserveative vote in this election.  Very few, if any Hochul supporters would rush to vote for Davis if he was on the ballot, even though he ran as a Democrat for this seat before.

Has Davis gotten more conservative, or has he always just tried to get on the ballot any way he can? If so, was he stronger in the more liberal areas of NY-26?

[Niemeyerite]

So, that means it's safe Corwin ... ?

Or is that Davis guy a strongly conservative Democrat ?

Being from the area, I believe that Davis would hurt Corwin a lot more than he would help her.  He is extremely conservative and would spend a lot of his own money to court the conserveative vote in this election.  Very few, if any Hochul supporters would rush to vote for Davis if he was on the ballot, even though he ran as a Democrat for this seat before.

Has Davis gotten more conservative, or has he always just tried to get on the ballot any way he can? If so, was he stronger in the more liberal areas of NY-26?

[HST1948]

So, that means it's safe Corwin ... ?

Or is that Davis guy a strongly conservative Democrat ?

Being from the area, I believe that Davis would hurt Corwin a lot more than he would help her.  He is extremely conservative and would spend a lot of his own money to court the conserveative vote in this election.  Very few, if any Hochul supporters would rush to vote for Davis if he was on the ballot, even though he ran as a Democrat for this seat before.

Has Davis gotten more conservative, or has he always just tried to get on the ballot any way he can? If so, was he stronger in the more liberal areas of NY-26?

Davis has always run on one issue: protectionism and has been conservative on most other issues.  He has always used any method he could to get on the ballot any way he can.  I would say, however, from what I have seen he has gotten even more conservative during this election.

[danny]

Remember that if Jack Davis makes the ballot he will officially be referred as the "Tea Party" candidate so you would think he would take mostly conservative votes.

[HST1948]

Remember that if Jack Davis makes the ballot he will officially be referred as the "Tea Party" candidate so you would think he would take mostly conservative votes.

Exactly, and Davis will most likely spend an inordinate amount of money on this race (like he has done in the past) to get his message out as to appeal to conservative voters, which will most likely turn off most Democrats.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Remember that if Jack Davis makes the ballot he will officially be referred as the "Tea Party" candidate so you would think he would take mostly conservative votes.

Remember that this is a special election. That tactic didn't work in 2010, and it certainly won't work in a 2011 election where voters are better informed.

Jack Davis will not get enough votes to be a factor in this race.

[Napoleon]

Davis has run as a Democrat before, but he only ran on one issue: protectionism. I believe he tried to get considered for the Republican nomination this time. He's kind of crazy, but he has a lot of money, which is a big head start when the election is only in a couple months.

Let the protectionists be Republicans. There is nothing progressive or liberal about something so archaic and outdated. Any top economist will tell you it's not even a viable policy in our increasingly inter-connected global market. I can only hope the teabaggers let this guy become Hoffman 2.0 and we pick up yet another upstate New York district that was once solidly GOP.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Remember that if Jack Davis makes the ballot he will officially be referred as the "Tea Party" candidate so you would think he would take mostly conservative votes.

Remember that this is a special election. That tactic didn't work in 2010, and it certainly won't work in a 2011 election where voters are better informed.

Jack Davis will not get enough votes to be a factor in this race.

So it's immaterial that he has piles of money he can spend, whereas those "Tea Party" candidates last year were paper candidates?

[Napoleon]

Remember that if Jack Davis makes the ballot he will officially be referred as the "Tea Party" candidate so you would think he would take mostly conservative votes.

Remember that this is a special election. That tactic didn't work in 2010, and it certainly won't work in a 2011 election where voters are better informed.

Jack Davis will not get enough votes to be a factor in this race.

So it's immaterial that he has piles of money he can spend, whereas those "Tea Party" candidates last year were paper candidates?

He's also previously been a candidate.

[cinyc]

The Green Party line isn't for sale.  They've named Ian L. Murphy as their party's candidate in the race.  He's the prankster who called Wisconsin Governor Walker claiming to be David Koch.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Remember that if Jack Davis makes the ballot he will officially be referred as the "Tea Party" candidate so you would think he would take mostly conservative votes.

Remember that this is a special election. That tactic didn't work in 2010, and it certainly won't work in a 2011 election where voters are better informed.

Jack Davis will not get enough votes to be a factor in this race.

So it's immaterial that he has piles of money he can spend, whereas those "Tea Party" candidates last year were paper candidates?

That's what I'm saying, yes. He's got no natural constituency. The paper candidates last year did.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He's got no natural constituency.

Racists?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

He's got no natural constituency.

Racists?

I don't see why they wouldn't go with the conservative Republican. What I guess I'm saying is that he may bring a few people to the polls who wouldn't have otherwise gone to the polls, but he won't win more than a percentage point or two of those who would go to the polls regardless of whether or not he's a candidate.

[Landslide Lyndon]

http://www.murphycanhascongress.com/

[Tender Branson]

http://www.murphycanhascongress.com/

Endorsed.

[Niemeyerite]

http://www.murphycanhascongress.com/

Endorsed.

I'd endorse him if the democrat candidate didn't stand a chance... but hopefully, the race will be close and those who are planning to vote green will vote dem. and hochul will be elected.

only dreaming... hahhaa

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't see why they wouldn't go with the conservative Republican.

Neither do I; I was just, you know.

[nclib]

Now that we know who the two major party nominees are, the topic line is even more important for them to follow.

Anyhow, aside from 3rd parties and/or scandal, am I correct to assume that it will be a steep uphill climb for the Dems, esp. considering that NY-26 is more conservative than NY-23?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Now that we know who the two major party nominees are, the topic line is even more important for them to follow.

Anyhow, aside from 3rd parties and/or scandal, am I correct to assume that it will be a steep uphill climb for the Dems, esp. considering that NY-26 is more conservative than NY-23?

This district, or rather the 28th district was drawn specifically for the purpose of allowing Tom Reynolds to "vote like a Southern Conservative" in this district. This is one of the four districts that McCain actually won over Obama, unlike NY-23 which Obama carried narrowly and was far more Legacy Republican than it was structurally Republican.

[HST1948]

Now that we know who the two major party nominees are, the topic line is even more important for them to follow.

Anyhow, aside from 3rd parties and/or scandal, am I correct to assume that it will be a steep uphill climb for the Dems, esp. considering that NY-26 is more conservative than NY-23?

This district, or rather the 28th district was drawn specifically for the purpose of allowing Tom Reynolds to "vote like a Southern Conservative" in this district. This is one of the four districts that McCain actually won over Obama, unlike NY-23 which Obama carried narrowly and was far more Legacy Republican than it was structurally Republican.

This is all very true, however, being from the area I can say that Hochul is extremely well know and loved in Western New York. She won her re-election campaign as county clerk in 2010with 79% of the vote (granted it was only Erie County and this district is does not include most of Erie County). However, she is relatively well known, throughout most of the counties Western New York.This, and the fact that she is very wealthy and may be willing to spend some of her own money on this campaign may certainly help her. Certainly she faces an uphill battle in a conservative district against Jane Corwin who, although not well know at all, is spending loads of her own money already on this election.  

[Badger]

Now that we know who the two major party nominees are, the topic line is even more important for them to follow.

Anyhow, aside from 3rd parties and/or scandal, am I correct to assume that it will be a steep uphill climb for the Dems, esp. considering that NY-26 is more conservative than NY-23?

This district, or rather the 28th district was drawn specifically for the purpose of allowing Tom Reynolds to "vote like a Southern Conservative" in this district. This is one of the four districts that McCain actually won over Obama, unlike NY-23 which Obama carried narrowly and was far more Legacy Republican than it was structurally Republican.

This is all very true, however, being from the area I can say that Hochul is extremely well know and loved in Western New York. She won her re-election campaign as county clerk in 2010with 79% of the vote (granted it was only Erie County and this district is does not include most of Erie County). However, she is relatively well known, throughout most of the counties Western New York.This, and the fact that she is very wealthy and may be willing to spend some of her own money on this campaign may certainly help her. Certainly she faces an uphill battle in a conservative district against Jane Corwin who, although not well know at all, is spending loads of her own money already on this election.  

As much as I would love to share your optimism, how is a county clerk "extremely well known"? Unless she held a more prominent local office previously or comes from a local political dynasty, I'd warrant only a tiny percentage of voters know who their county clerk is. The 79% reelection sounds like someone running for reelection in a Democratic county with no public scandals or incompetence and people voting for the Democrat and/or marginally more familiar name. And as you said, little of Erie County is in this district; I'd guess her name ID outside Erie is in the single digits.

My, aren't I a wet blanket this morning? Please feel free to explain if I'm wrong as you know the local political scene much better than I, and I'd love to become encouraged that this might actually turn into something resembling a race.

[HST1948]

Now that we know who the two major party nominees are, the topic line is even more important for them to follow.

Anyhow, aside from 3rd parties and/or scandal, am I correct to assume that it will be a steep uphill climb for the Dems, esp. considering that NY-26 is more conservative than NY-23?

This district, or rather the 28th district was drawn specifically for the purpose of allowing Tom Reynolds to "vote like a Southern Conservative" in this district. This is one of the four districts that McCain actually won over Obama, unlike NY-23 which Obama carried narrowly and was far more Legacy Republican than it was structurally Republican.

This is all very true, however, being from the area I can say that Hochul is extremely well know and loved in Western New York. She won her re-election campaign as county clerk in 2010with 79% of the vote (granted it was only Erie County and this district is does not include most of Erie County). However, she is relatively well known, throughout most of the counties Western New York.This, and the fact that she is very wealthy and may be willing to spend some of her own money on this campaign may certainly help her. Certainly she faces an uphill battle in a conservative district against Jane Corwin who, although not well know at all, is spending loads of her own money already on this election.  

As much as I would love to share your optimism, how is a county clerk "extremely well known"? Unless she held a more prominent local office previously or comes from a local political dynasty, I'd warrant only a tiny percentage of voters know who their county clerk is. The 79% reelection sounds like someone running for reelection in a Democratic county with no public scandals or incompetence and people voting for the Democrat and/or marginally more familiar name. And as you said, little of Erie County is in this district; I'd guess her name ID outside Erie is in the single digits.

My, aren't I a wet blanket this morning? Please feel free to explain if I'm wrong as you know the local political scene much better than I, and I'd love to become encouraged that this might actually turn into something resembling a race.

I certainly agree with you and any democrat in this district faces an uphill climb.  I would rate Corwin as a front runner right now.  What I am saying, however, Hochul may have the ability to turn this into some sort of a race at least.  In response to your question of her name recognition outside (and I guess even in) of Erie County, I would say that it is higher than one may expect for a county clerk.  She has been highly visible throughout her tenure and every week she writes news articles and many of the regional and town papers (both in and outside of Erie County) publish them. I don't know how many people actually read these, but her name had been out there.  However, she is a Democrat running in one of the most conservative districts in the state. 

[ag]

I don't know about the Upstate, but on Long Island the two county clerks are, if not household names, still reasonably known by the populace.

[Badger]

Now that we know who the two major party nominees are, the topic line is even more important for them to follow.

Anyhow, aside from 3rd parties and/or scandal, am I correct to assume that it will be a steep uphill climb for the Dems, esp. considering that NY-26 is more conservative than NY-23?

This district, or rather the 28th district was drawn specifically for the purpose of allowing Tom Reynolds to "vote like a Southern Conservative" in this district. This is one of the four districts that McCain actually won over Obama, unlike NY-23 which Obama carried narrowly and was far more Legacy Republican than it was structurally Republican.

This is all very true, however, being from the area I can say that Hochul is extremely well know and loved in Western New York. She won her re-election campaign as county clerk in 2010with 79% of the vote (granted it was only Erie County and this district is does not include most of Erie County). However, she is relatively well known, throughout most of the counties Western New York.This, and the fact that she is very wealthy and may be willing to spend some of her own money on this campaign may certainly help her. Certainly she faces an uphill battle in a conservative district against Jane Corwin who, although not well know at all, is spending loads of her own money already on this election.  

As much as I would love to share your optimism, how is a county clerk "extremely well known"? Unless she held a more prominent local office previously or comes from a local political dynasty, I'd warrant only a tiny percentage of voters know who their county clerk is. The 79% reelection sounds like someone running for reelection in a Democratic county with no public scandals or incompetence and people voting for the Democrat and/or marginally more familiar name. And as you said, little of Erie County is in this district; I'd guess her name ID outside Erie is in the single digits.

My, aren't I a wet blanket this morning? Please feel free to explain if I'm wrong as you know the local political scene much better than I, and I'd love to become encouraged that this might actually turn into something resembling a race.

I certainly agree with you and any democrat in this district faces an uphill climb.  I would rate Corwin as a front runner right now.  What I am saying, however, Hochul may have the ability to turn this into some sort of a race at least.  In response to your question of her name recognition outside (and I guess even in) of Erie County, I would say that it is higher than one may expect for a county clerk.  She has been highly visible throughout her tenure and every week she writes news articles and many of the regional and town papers (both in and outside of Erie County) publish them. I don't know how many people actually read these, but her name had been out there.  However, she is a Democrat running in one of the most conservative districts in the state. 

Cool. Thanks for the insight (you too, ag).

[minionofmidas]

I don't know about the Upstate, but on Long Island the two county clerks are, if not household names, still reasonably known by the populace.

Long Island's counties are twice the size of congressional districts, so, yeah. Obviously not comparable.

Things would have to get down the sh!tter pretty badly for Corwin for this to get seriously competitive, and Hochul's name rec or lack of it and Davis' natural constituency or lack of it to matter.
Obviously, given the past record of by-elections in New York state, you can't rule anything out, but, yeah.