The NY-26 Election. Have fun but keep your shirt on.

[HST1948]

I just thought I would let everyone know both campaigns have started airing commercials as of last night on the three major news channels in the area. Hochuls highlighted her more conservative side, such as her "fight" against Governor Spitzer's propasal to give illegal immigrantas driver's licences, her fight against some of Gvernor Patterson's prpoasals, and her fight to remove the throughway tolls.  It was the "I faught albany for you, and I I'll do the same in Washington regardless of party" message.  Corwin's commercial attacked Hochul for being a "tax and spend liberal" who would raise taxes if she was elected.

[cinyc]

I don't know about the Upstate, but on Long Island the two county clerks are, if not household names, still reasonably known by the populace.

Long Island's counties are twice the size of congressional districts, so, yeah. Obviously not comparable.

Erie County is the size of more than one CD, too - and, unlike Long Island, at the heart of the area's major TV market.  I'm sure the Erie County Clerk gets much more TV face time than her Long Island counterparts - though that's not saying much.  I couldn't name the county clerk of either Long Island county - but I don't live there.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Hochul raised $350k through the end of March.

[Tender Branson]

It would be about time for a poll there ...

[Brittain33]

It would be about time for a poll there ...

I'd be surprised if the DCCC hasn't been polling the race already, and the absence of leaks or press releases indicates what they're (not) finding.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I'd expect PPP with or without Kos to do one, but maybe they're still smarting over their NY-23 poll.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Jack Davis put $1.6 million of his own money into the race in the first quarter, and has already spent nearly all of it (mostly on advertising).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Corwin is apparently loaded too. She only raised about $100k, but she loaned herself a cool million. About half of that has been spent already.

[Meeker]

Great ad from the Democrat: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPa8teSoLwg&feature=player_embedded

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Finally, a poll. Too bad it's Siena.

Jane Corwin (R) - 36
Kathy Hochul (D) - 31
Jack Davis (I) - 23
Ian Murphy (G) - 1

Favorables:

Corwin - 44/31
Hochul - 44/31
Davis - 42/41
Murphy - 5/17

Obama - 39/57 (don't know why they polled this and not approval)
Pelosi - 25/67
Boehner - 45/34
Cuomo - 72/20 (!)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Remember that if Jack Davis makes the ballot he will officially be referred as the "Tea Party" candidate so you would think he would take mostly conservative votes.

Remember that this is a special election. That tactic didn't work in 2010, and it certainly won't work in a 2011 election where voters are better informed.

Jack Davis will not get enough votes to be a factor in this race.

So it's immaterial that he has piles of money he can spend, whereas those "Tea Party" candidates last year were paper candidates?

That's what I'm saying, yes. He's got no natural constituency. The paper candidates last year did.

Still sticking with that?

[minionofmidas]

That's... high.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Still sticking with that?

I still question whether those Davis people will actually go to the polls, but I guess we'll have to see.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Still sticking with that?

I still question whether those Davis people will actually go to the polls, but I guess we'll have to see.

Well, if he promises them free beer like the Wisconsin Republicans did to collect their recall signatures, then all bets are off.

[HST1948]

I know it's still a five point lead for Corwin, but given the make up of this district I think Hochul is doing well.  I am suprised at how well Jack Davis is doing, but he has been running commercials non stop (I can't seem to escape them!).  It seems like he may hurt Corwin going into the final stretch of this election though.   

[minionofmidas]

When's the election?

[HST1948]

Still sticking with that?

I still question whether those Davis people will actually go to the polls, but I guess we'll have to see.

I wouldn't doubt that they will.  His supporters seem to really like him and are really loyal around here (at least the one's that I have met and talked to).  In addition he has launched a huge advirtising campaign ($3 million dollars of his own money) on all of the major news channels in the area, so that may help drive up his support as well.  

Like you said though, we won't know until election day.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

When's the election?

May 24.

[minionofmidas]

Plenty of time for the race to move into genuine three-way tossup territory then, leading to Corwin tanking and finally dropping out to ensure Davis' victory?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Plenty of time for the race to move into genuine three-way tossup territory then, leading to Corwin tanking and finally dropping out to ensure Davis' victory?

Nah, Corwin doesn't have Scozzafava's problems. However, if Davis gets up into the 30s, she'll really be in trouble.

[HST1948]

Plenty of time for the race to move into genuine three-way tossup territory then, leading to Corwin tanking and finally dropping out to ensure Davis' victory?

With less than a month until the election I don't see any of these candidates changing course drastically (like dropping out).  Corwin will probably begin another advertising blitz, and the Davis will amp up his game too.  It seems like all three will stick to the same talking points and campaign tactics until May 24th.     

[Tender Branson]

Finally, a poll. Too bad it's Siena.

Jane Corwin (R) - 36
Kathy Hochul (D) - 31
Jack Davis (I) - 23
Ian Murphy (G) - 1

Favorables:

Corwin - 44/31
Hochul - 44/31
Davis - 42/41
Murphy - 5/17

Obama - 39/57 (don't know why they polled this and not approval)
Pelosi - 25/67
Boehner - 45/34
Cuomo - 72/20 (!)

This is about what I expected to see for this race ...

[tpfkaw]

Why is Davis apparently so appealing?

[Tender Branson]

Why is Davis apparently so appealing?

Probably 3 reasons:

A) He was already a Democratic (I think) candidate for this seat in previous elections, which means big name recognition

B) He's running for the Tea Party, which means he's a good choice for protest voters, who are unhappy with recent handlings of Democrats and Republicans

C) He puts a lot of his own money into the race

[JohnnyLongtorso]

He also runs on a populist protectionist platform.