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Author Topic: The NY-26 Election. Have fun but keep your shirt on.  (Read 23519 times)
JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #375 on: May 24, 2011, 08:34:24 pm »
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Wow, the Erie numbers are brutal for Corwin. Not sure how she makes up this deficit, especially if Hochul does as well in the other rural counties as she is doing in Livingston.
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cinyc
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« Reply #376 on: May 24, 2011, 08:34:57 pm »
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Unless there's some real surprise in the three rural counties that I don't have data for, I don't see how anyone but Hochul wins this.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #377 on: May 24, 2011, 08:35:19 pm »
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Quote from: Senator North Carolina Yankee on May 24, 2011, 08:32:18 pm
Livingston is close, which is bad news for Corwin. I wonder if some of these rural ultra GOP counties are like the heavily Republican counties in Central and Western PA, all the dems come in first then the Republicans overwhelm them ending with GOP wins by 2-1 and 3-1 margins. 

Livingston isn't an ultra GOP county though, it gave Obama 45% of the vote so these current results are consistent with what the results are showing in Monroe and Erie.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #378 on: May 24, 2011, 08:36:04 pm »
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Overall (210/627):

48% - 18,022 votes - Kathy Hochul (DEM)
42% - 16,033 votes - Jane Corwin (GOP)
  9% -   3,369 votes - Jack Davis (TEA)
  1% -      408 votes - Ian Murphy (GRN)
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Holmes
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« Reply #379 on: May 24, 2011, 08:37:14 pm »
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Hmm. I'm sure Democrats wish every election were a special election. At least in New York.
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Meeker
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« Reply #380 on: May 24, 2011, 08:37:45 pm »
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This thing's over. There's no way Corwin can make up for the numbers in Erie.
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« Reply #381 on: May 24, 2011, 08:37:58 pm »
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Quote from: Tender Branson on May 24, 2011, 08:36:04 pm
Overall (210/627):

48% - 18,022 votes - Kathy Hochul (DEM)
42% - 16,033 votes - Jane Corwin (GOP)
  9% -   3,369 votes - Jack Davis (TEA)
  1% -      408 votes - Ian Murphy (GRN)
48% is what the Democrat got in 2006, a bad sign for the GOP if this holds.  
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Quote from: Badger on September 22, 2012, 12:17:40 pm
Quote from: For a Few Dollars More on September 22, 2012, 09:22:12 am
Reading the 3012 boards dulls one's sense of irony.

Seriously. How many times can we read about the Obamachine 3000 pulling ahead of the Reagantronix QLZ in the race for Mars Mutant Colony's 48 electoral votes? Sheesh!
Sam Spade
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« Reply #382 on: May 24, 2011, 08:38:10 pm »
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It's over folks.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #383 on: May 24, 2011, 08:39:08 pm »
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Apparently results for Lockport and North Tonawanda aren't in yet for Niagara County. I don't see how Corwin could possibly win if she's doing that poorly in her home base areas of Niagara (I'm pretty sure she represents Lockport and the outlying areas in Albany).  
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Smash255
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« Reply #384 on: May 24, 2011, 08:39:59 pm »
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Quote from: TheDeadFlagBlues on May 24, 2011, 08:32:07 pm
Quote from: Smash255 on May 24, 2011, 08:22:56 pm
Quote from: Holmes on May 24, 2011, 08:17:19 pm
Hochul really needs to improve in Niagara.

Taking a look at the precincts in Niagara that are in it looks like Hochul is outperforming Obama.

Where are you finding the detailed precinct results for Niagara?

From the Niagara website

http://nts.ntsdata.com/eSuiteReports/ncboelive/se11/r102_dist.htm
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Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #385 on: May 24, 2011, 08:40:30 pm »
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Quote from: TheDeadFlagBlues on May 24, 2011, 08:35:19 pm
Quote from: Senator North Carolina Yankee on May 24, 2011, 08:32:18 pm
Livingston is close, which is bad news for Corwin. I wonder if some of these rural ultra GOP counties are like the heavily Republican counties in Central and Western PA, all the dems come in first then the Republicans overwhelm them ending with GOP wins by 2-1 and 3-1 margins. 

Livingston isn't an ultra GOP county though, it gave Obama 45% of the vote so these current results are consistent with what the results are showing in Monroe and Erie.

Indeed, that is true. My main interest was to find out from a demographic standpoint how uniform these "relatively" and strong GOP counties (I think the non-Erie, non-Niagara, non-Monroe Counties have been sufficiently grouped off, now. Tongue).
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Smash255
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« Reply #386 on: May 24, 2011, 08:41:24 pm »
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Quote from: JohnnyLongtorso on May 24, 2011, 08:34:24 pm
Wow, the Erie numbers are brutal for Corwin. Not sure how she makes up this deficit, especially if Hochul does as well in the other rural counties as she is doing in Livingston.

Agreed.  Corwin's only hope is for every single Erie precinct in to be from Amherst, but even looking at what is left in Niagara, even if all of Erie that is in is Amherst, that might not be enough.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #387 on: May 24, 2011, 08:41:30 pm »
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Here´s a comparison of Hochul and Kryzan in 2008:

Erie: Kryzan (45%), Hochul (55%) +10

Livingston: Kryzan (39%), Hochul (43%) +4

Monroe: Kryzan (40%), Hochul (43%) +3

Niagara: Kryzan (41%), Hochul (43%) +2

Wyoming: Kryzan (32%), Hochul (44%) +12

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/county/#NYH26p1
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« Reply #388 on: May 24, 2011, 08:43:24 pm »
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W/ 5/19 election districts reporting in Wyoming its Corwin 869, Hochul 703 - clearly, noth enough for Corwin.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #389 on: May 24, 2011, 08:43:52 pm »
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Overall (281/627):

48% - 23,744 votes - Kathy Hochul (DEM)
42% - 20,888 votes - Jane Corwin (GOP)
  9% -   4,169 votes - Jack Davis (TEA)
  1% -      538 votes - Ian Murphy (GRN)
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Meeker
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« Reply #390 on: May 24, 2011, 08:45:22 pm »
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These results have also come in shockingly quick.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #391 on: May 24, 2011, 08:45:36 pm »
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Overall (345/627):

48% - 29,063 votes - Kathy Hochul (DEM)
43% - 26,277 votes - Jane Corwin (GOP)
  8% -   5,090 votes - Jack Davis (TEA)
  1% -      658 votes - Ian Murphy (GRN)
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ag
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« Reply #392 on: May 24, 2011, 08:47:30 pm »
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Hochul has opened a 450 vote lead in Niagara: 5304 Hochul, 4846 Corwin
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Holmes
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« Reply #393 on: May 24, 2011, 08:47:53 pm »
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http://twitter.com/#!/greggiroux/status/73200164034187264
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #394 on: May 24, 2011, 08:49:17 pm »
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Yeah, this is pretty much a done deal for Hochul now ... Smiley
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #395 on: May 24, 2011, 08:49:33 pm »
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Quote from: Meeker on May 24, 2011, 08:45:22 pm
These results have also come in shockingly quick.

They finally learned how to use the new voting machines, I suppose.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #396 on: May 24, 2011, 08:52:40 pm »
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The PPP poll with Hochul+6 seems to be on a good track too.

It seems they now are better with polling special elections.
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Meeker
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« Reply #397 on: May 24, 2011, 08:53:11 pm »
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Quote from: Holmes on May 24, 2011, 08:47:53 pm
http://twitter.com/#!/greggiroux/status/73200164034187264

That must be a mistake.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #398 on: May 24, 2011, 08:54:29 pm »
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Overall (394/627):

48% - 33,607 votes - Kathy Hochul (DEM)
43% - 29,620 votes - Jane Corwin (GOP)
  8% -   5,682 votes - Jack Davis (TEA)
  1% -      742 votes - Ian Murphy (GRN)
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ag
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« Reply #399 on: May 24, 2011, 08:56:20 pm »
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Niagara is giving Hochul more and more of a lead:

6095 Hochul
5378 Corwin
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