The NY-26 Election. Have fun but keep your shirt on.
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  The NY-26 Election. Have fun but keep your shirt on.
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Author Topic: The NY-26 Election. Have fun but keep your shirt on.  (Read 49488 times)
cinyc
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« Reply #400 on: May 24, 2011, 09:06:49 PM »

The PPP poll with Hochul+6 seems to be on a good track too.

It seems they now are better with polling special elections.

Given what's out, it will probably be closer than that.  But not enough for Corwin to win or even credibly call for a recount.
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ag
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« Reply #401 on: May 24, 2011, 09:13:01 PM »

Niagara isn't going to be close at all - it's well over a 1000 vote lead for Hochul at this point. But where are Orleans and Geneese? I know, nobody cares anymore, but I do Smiley)
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ag
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« Reply #402 on: May 24, 2011, 09:14:43 PM »

Orleans just came in in full:

1393 Hochul (40%)
1626 Corwin (47%)

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cinyc
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« Reply #403 on: May 24, 2011, 09:15:01 PM »

Niagara isn't going to be close at all - it's well over a 1000 vote lead for Hochul at this point. But where are Orleans and Geneese? I know, nobody cares anymore, but I do Smiley)

Niagara is almost all in (not in the AP results, but in the BoE-level results I've been tracking), as is Erie and Monroe.  The two counties that are out plus Wyoming are among the most Republican in the district.  So it should tighten - but likely not by much.  My guess is Hochul will win by 4 or 5, not 6.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #404 on: May 24, 2011, 09:15:38 PM »

Overall (520/627):

47.9% - 41,731 votes - Kathy Hochul (DEM) - WINNER
42.6% - 37,122 votes - Jane Corwin (GOP)
  8.4% -   7,346 votes - Jack Davis (TEA)
  1.1% -      947 votes - Ian Murphy (GRN)
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #405 on: May 24, 2011, 09:16:15 PM »
« Edited: May 24, 2011, 09:19:13 PM by JohnnyLongtorso »

Orleans just dumped their entire county at once: 47-40 Corwin.

genesee might be interesting, there is one significant college town in the county, though obviously school's out for summer.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #406 on: May 24, 2011, 09:18:21 PM »

Niagara isn't going to be close at all - it's well over a 1000 vote lead for Hochul at this point. But where are Orleans and Geneese? I know, nobody cares anymore, but I do Smiley)

Niagara is almost all in (not in the AP results, but in the BoE-level results I've been tracking), as is Erie and Monroe.  The two counties that are out plus Wyoming are among the most Republican in the district.  So it should tighten - but likely not by much.  My guess is Hochul will win by 4 or 5, not 6.

All of Orleans came out at the same time, and Hochul still leads by 6, by the way.
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BRTD
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« Reply #407 on: May 24, 2011, 09:18:29 PM »

For some reason I forgot about this as soon as I went to work (maybe because I got a parking ticket? Maybe because I overslept and had to leave as soon as I woke up?) and never bothered to check it.

Oh well. Good news.
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cinyc
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« Reply #408 on: May 24, 2011, 09:22:35 PM »

Niagara isn't going to be close at all - it's well over a 1000 vote lead for Hochul at this point. But where are Orleans and Geneese? I know, nobody cares anymore, but I do Smiley)

Niagara is almost all in (not in the AP results, but in the BoE-level results I've been tracking), as is Erie and Monroe.  The two counties that are out plus Wyoming are among the most Republican in the district.  So it should tighten - but likely not by much.  My guess is Hochul will win by 4 or 5, not 6.

All of Orleans came out at the same time, and Hochul still leads by 6, by the way.

Genesee makes up 8-9% of the district and is one of the most Republican-leaning counties in the district.  Part of Wyoming is still out, too.  That's balanced by 1 precinct in Niagara and 5 in Erie.  Given that,  I think it will end up about a 5-point margin.
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Smash255
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« Reply #409 on: May 24, 2011, 09:24:24 PM »

Anyone know why the amount of precincts the AP lists and what the county board of elections differs?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #410 on: May 24, 2011, 09:25:08 PM »

Hochul vs. Kryzan comparison:

Erie: Kryzan (45%), Hochul (54%) +9
Niagara: Kryzan (41%), Hochul (47%) +6
Monroe: Kryzan (40%), Hochul (45%) +5
Orleans: Kryzan (35%), Hochul (40%) +5
Wyoming: Kryzan (32%), Hochul (36%) +4
Livingston: Kryzan (39%), Hochul (42%) +3

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/county/#NYH26p1
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memphis
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« Reply #411 on: May 24, 2011, 09:25:37 PM »

Another lame spoiler election. It worked in my party's favor this time, but it's still stupid...
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cinyc
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« Reply #412 on: May 24, 2011, 09:26:39 PM »

Anyone know why the amount of precincts the AP lists and what the county board of elections differs?

Guess - they're using the precinct count for general elections and there were fewer actual precincts in the special to save money.
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ag
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« Reply #413 on: May 24, 2011, 09:29:18 PM »

Niagara complete

Hochul 8550
Corwin 7114
Davis 2267
Murphy 167
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Smash255
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« Reply #414 on: May 24, 2011, 09:29:57 PM »

Another lame spoiler election. It worked in my party's favor this time, but it's still stupid...

With Corwin's horrific numbers among Davis supporters I really don't see this as a spoiler election.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #415 on: May 24, 2011, 09:31:18 PM »
« Edited: May 24, 2011, 09:33:17 PM by Chemistry & Sleep Deprivation »

Anyone know why the amount of precincts the AP lists and what the county board of elections differs?

Guess - they're using the precinct count for general elections and there were fewer actual precincts in the special to save money.

On Niagara County result page:
"56 of 56 (100%) machines reporting (100 total districts)".

To save costs, I suppose than more than one precinct uses the same voting machine.

EDIT: cinyc, do you know if absentees are counted as a precinct or not, on election day or another day?
Or each county decides?
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #416 on: May 24, 2011, 09:32:50 PM »

Another lame spoiler election. It worked in my party's favor this time, but it's still stupid...

It's definitely not a spoiler election because Davis wasn't running on a Tea Party platform, he was running on a protectionist/anti-Paul Ryan plan platform.

lol though read Red State's spin on the election here: http://www.redstate.com/erick/2011/05/24/the-gop-loss-in-new-york-was-about-new-york-not-paul-ryan/
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cinyc
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« Reply #417 on: May 24, 2011, 09:33:29 PM »

Anyone know why the amount of precincts the AP lists and what the county board of elections differs?

Guess - they're using the precinct count for general elections and there were fewer actual precincts in the special to save money.

On Niagara County result page:
"56 of 56 (100%) machines reporting (100 total districts)".

To save costs, I suppose than more than one precinct uses the same voting machine.

There's really no reason not to combine precincts when you're only running one race.  In a normal election, precincts might have different ballots due to being in different state or local districts.  There's no chance of that happening here.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #418 on: May 24, 2011, 09:34:35 PM »

Another lame spoiler election. It worked in my party's favor this time, but it's still stupid...

The total Dem + Green vote is currently 49.2%. Davis' supporters would have had to go about 80-20 to Corwin for her to win. I don't really think there was much of a spoiler effect in play.
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jro660
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« Reply #419 on: May 24, 2011, 09:41:29 PM »

Wheres the AP link?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #420 on: May 24, 2011, 09:44:52 PM »

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/NY_US_House_0524.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Caution, updated slower than counties' websites.

Wyoming is fully out.
Corwin 3143
Hochul 2212
Davis 675
Murphy 84

Which gives a 51-36 win for Corwin in Wyoming Co.

I'll repeat my question, since it was added through an edit, so people probably missed it.
Does election night results include the absentees?
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cinyc
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« Reply #421 on: May 24, 2011, 09:45:48 PM »
« Edited: May 24, 2011, 09:50:39 PM by cinyc »

I'll repeat my question, since it was added through an edit, so people probably missed it.
Does election night results include the absentees?

In New York, usually not.  In this race, definitely not, due to the court order.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #422 on: May 24, 2011, 09:48:14 PM »

I think the spoiler effect isn't very existent here, Corwin's favorables were terrible, that would indicate to me that it wasn't all about Davis pulling votes away from her. We also don't know just what percentage of Davis votes weren't going to support her at all, it may have been enough where the result was not spoiled.
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tpfkaw
wormyguy
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« Reply #423 on: May 24, 2011, 09:49:37 PM »

Another lame spoiler election. It worked in my party's favor this time, but it's still stupid...

With Corwin's horrific numbers among Davis supporters I really don't see this as a spoiler election.

Gore had worse numbers than Bush among Nader supporters.  When people gravitate towards a third party, they often retroactively decide they would never have voted for "their" major-party candidate, even if they really would have.
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Dgov
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« Reply #424 on: May 24, 2011, 09:52:02 PM »

Another lame spoiler election. It worked in my party's favor this time, but it's still stupid...

It's definitely not a spoiler election because Davis wasn't running on a Tea Party platform, he was running on a protectionist/anti-Paul Ryan plan platform.

lol though read Red State's spin on the election here: http://www.redstate.com/erick/2011/05/24/the-gop-loss-in-new-york-was-about-new-york-not-paul-ryan/

Right, because winning 2 special elections in Republican leaning districts in upstate New York was a clear predictor of the Democrat's strong performance in 2010, and a clear repudiation of the Republican's opposition to both the Stimulus and Obamacare.

The only thing this election really means in the long run is that Democrats will probably lose both House seats in NY from this redistricting.  And that some heads should roll in the NYGOP, but if that hasn't happened so far i doubt that this will provoke them into action.
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