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Author Topic: The NY-26 Election. Have fun but keep your shirt on.  (Read 25713 times)
cinyc
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« Reply #425 on: May 24, 2011, 09:33:29 pm »
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Anyone know why the amount of precincts the AP lists and what the county board of elections differs?

Guess - they're using the precinct count for general elections and there were fewer actual precincts in the special to save money.

On Niagara County result page:
"56 of 56 (100%) machines reporting (100 total districts)".

To save costs, I suppose than more than one precinct uses the same voting machine.

There's really no reason not to combine precincts when you're only running one race.  In a normal election, precincts might have different ballots due to being in different state or local districts.  There's no chance of that happening here.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #426 on: May 24, 2011, 09:34:35 pm »
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Another lame spoiler election. It worked in my party's favor this time, but it's still stupid...

The total Dem + Green vote is currently 49.2%. Davis' supporters would have had to go about 80-20 to Corwin for her to win. I don't really think there was much of a spoiler effect in play.
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« Reply #427 on: May 24, 2011, 09:41:29 pm »
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Wheres the AP link?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #428 on: May 24, 2011, 09:44:52 pm »
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http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/NY_US_House_0524.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Caution, updated slower than counties' websites.

Wyoming is fully out.
Corwin 3143
Hochul 2212
Davis 675
Murphy 84

Which gives a 51-36 win for Corwin in Wyoming Co.

I'll repeat my question, since it was added through an edit, so people probably missed it.
Does election night results include the absentees?
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cinyc
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« Reply #429 on: May 24, 2011, 09:45:48 pm »
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I'll repeat my question, since it was added through an edit, so people probably missed it.
Does election night results include the absentees?

In New York, usually not.  In this race, definitely not, due to the court order.
« Last Edit: May 24, 2011, 09:50:39 pm by cinyc »Logged
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« Reply #430 on: May 24, 2011, 09:48:14 pm »
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I think the spoiler effect isn't very existent here, Corwin's favorables were terrible, that would indicate to me that it wasn't all about Davis pulling votes away from her. We also don't know just what percentage of Davis votes weren't going to support her at all, it may have been enough where the result was not spoiled.
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« Reply #431 on: May 24, 2011, 09:49:37 pm »
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Another lame spoiler election. It worked in my party's favor this time, but it's still stupid...

With Corwin's horrific numbers among Davis supporters I really don't see this as a spoiler election.

Gore had worse numbers than Bush among Nader supporters.  When people gravitate towards a third party, they often retroactively decide they would never have voted for "their" major-party candidate, even if they really would have.
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« Reply #432 on: May 24, 2011, 09:52:02 pm »
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Another lame spoiler election. It worked in my party's favor this time, but it's still stupid...

It's definitely not a spoiler election because Davis wasn't running on a Tea Party platform, he was running on a protectionist/anti-Paul Ryan plan platform.

lol though read Red State's spin on the election here: http://www.redstate.com/erick/2011/05/24/the-gop-loss-in-new-york-was-about-new-york-not-paul-ryan/

Right, because winning 2 special elections in Republican leaning districts in upstate New York was a clear predictor of the Democrat's strong performance in 2010, and a clear repudiation of the Republican's opposition to both the Stimulus and Obamacare.

The only thing this election really means in the long run is that Democrats will probably lose both House seats in NY from this redistricting.  And that some heads should roll in the NYGOP, but if that hasn't happened so far i doubt that this will provoke them into action.
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« Reply #433 on: May 24, 2011, 09:54:09 pm »
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I think the spoiler effect isn't very existent here, Corwin's favorables were terrible, that would indicate to me that it wasn't all about Davis pulling votes away from her. We also don't know just what percentage of Davis votes weren't going to support her at all, it may have been enough where the result was not spoiled.

You're also forgetting that Corwin spent most of the campaign attacking Davis rather than Hocul.  It's probably one of the reasons her favorability with his voters was so bad, and why Hocul was able to run her campaign comparatively unscathed.
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« Reply #434 on: May 24, 2011, 09:55:45 pm »
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Another lame spoiler election. It worked in my party's favor this time, but it's still stupid...

It's definitely not a spoiler election because Davis wasn't running on a Tea Party platform, he was running on a protectionist/anti-Paul Ryan plan platform.

lol though read Red State's spin on the election here: http://www.redstate.com/erick/2011/05/24/the-gop-loss-in-new-york-was-about-new-york-not-paul-ryan/

Right, because winning 2 special elections in Republican leaning districts in upstate New York was a clear predictor of the Democrat's strong performance in 2010, and a clear repudiation of the Republican's opposition to both the Stimulus and Obamacare.

The only thing this election really means in the long run is that Democrats will probably lose both House seats in NY from this redistricting.  And that some heads should roll in the NYGOP, but if that hasn't happened so far i doubt that this will provoke them into action.

This seat is CONSIDERABLY  more Republican and conservative than NY-20 and NY-23
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« Reply #435 on: May 24, 2011, 09:56:51 pm »
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Another lame spoiler election. It worked in my party's favor this time, but it's still stupid...

It's definitely not a spoiler election because Davis wasn't running on a Tea Party platform, he was running on a protectionist/anti-Paul Ryan plan platform.

lol though read Red State's spin on the election here: http://www.redstate.com/erick/2011/05/24/the-gop-loss-in-new-york-was-about-new-york-not-paul-ryan/

Right, because winning 2 special elections in Republican leaning districts in upstate New York was a clear predictor of the Democrat's strong performance in 2010, and a clear repudiation of the Republican's opposition to both the Stimulus and Obamacare.

The only thing this election really means in the long run is that Democrats will probably lose both House seats in NY from this redistricting.  And that some heads should roll in the NYGOP, but if that hasn't happened so far i doubt that this will provoke them into action.

This seat is CONSIDERABLY  more Republican and conservative than NY-20 and NY-23

By a whopping 4 points.  IIRC, you won both those elections by more than that
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #436 on: May 24, 2011, 09:57:55 pm »
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Actually, this probably means that Buerkle is the upstate rep. on the chopping block. Shift NY-28's portion of Buffalo into NY-26, split Syracuse between NY-23 and NY-28, and the Democrats are good.
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« Reply #437 on: May 24, 2011, 09:59:22 pm »
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I think the spoiler effect isn't very existent here, Corwin's favorables were terrible, that would indicate to me that it wasn't all about Davis pulling votes away from her. We also don't know just what percentage of Davis votes weren't going to support her at all, it may have been enough where the result was not spoiled.

You're also forgetting that Corwin spent most of the campaign attacking Davis rather than Hocul.  It's probably one of the reasons her favorability with his voters was so bad, and why Hocul was able to run her campaign comparatively unscathed.

Well, there are reasons why Republicans decided to attack the Independant, not the Democrat.
I suppose. That's assuming than the NY Republican Party had good strategist, a thing than I doubt, given their current results. They can only win seats in a outside wave context like 2010, but seems unable to win an election in normal, neutral conditions.

As which side the voters are swinging on Medicare, we will see in 2012, I suppose.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #438 on: May 24, 2011, 09:59:37 pm »
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Another lame spoiler election. It worked in my party's favor this time, but it's still stupid...

It's definitely not a spoiler election because Davis wasn't running on a Tea Party platform, he was running on a protectionist/anti-Paul Ryan plan platform.

lol though read Red State's spin on the election here: http://www.redstate.com/erick/2011/05/24/the-gop-loss-in-new-york-was-about-new-york-not-paul-ryan/

Right, because winning 2 special elections in Republican leaning districts in upstate New York was a clear predictor of the Democrat's strong performance in 2010, and a clear repudiation of the Republican's opposition to both the Stimulus and Obamacare.

The only thing this election really means in the long run is that Democrats will probably lose both House seats in NY from this redistricting.  And that some heads should roll in the NYGOP, but if that hasn't happened so far i doubt that this will provoke them into action.

The deal is that an Upstate Republican and a Downstate Democrat will get the axe.  No way Cuomo and the Assembly Democrats would allow both eliminated seats to be Democratic ones.  Especially considering that it will be Democratic seats being cut in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Missouri.
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« Reply #439 on: May 24, 2011, 10:00:33 pm »
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NY-20 had been held by Gillibrand, and NY-23 was such a random situation with the Republican endorsing the Democrat. This race is entirely different and seems to be actually, well, focused on one single issue.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #440 on: May 24, 2011, 10:02:52 pm »
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NY-20 happened when Democrats were still leading the GOP in Generic Republican vs. Generic Democrat polls and when the stimulus was really popular. We should have held NY-20 because of the national climate in early 2009.

NY-23, yet again, was entirely different. The district is much more favorable to Obama and was trending our way for years. It's of a totally different character. On top of that, there was a real spoiler effect with some uninformed voters still voting for Scozzafava, Hoffman ran a terrible and pretty extremist teabagger campaign that wasn't going to fly in NY-23. PPP got the race wrong because they used a wrong turnout model.
« Last Edit: May 24, 2011, 10:05:11 pm by TheDeadFlagBlues »Logged



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krazen1211
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« Reply #441 on: May 24, 2011, 10:03:26 pm »
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Right, because winning 2 special elections in Republican leaning districts in upstate New York was a clear predictor of the Democrat's strong performance in 2010, and a clear repudiation of the Republican's opposition to both the Stimulus and Obamacare.

The only thing this election really means in the long run is that Democrats will probably lose both House seats in NY from this redistricting.  And that some heads should roll in the NYGOP, but if that hasn't happened so far i doubt that this will provoke them into action.

Nah. Hochul has to move north to pick up the now unnecessary earmuffs. I actually think Slaughterhouse and Higgins get fairly compact districts this time around; there's little reason to give them much else. Hochul gets about what she has now.
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« Reply #442 on: May 24, 2011, 10:07:44 pm »
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Another lame spoiler election. It worked in my party's favor this time, but it's still stupid...

It's definitely not a spoiler election because Davis wasn't running on a Tea Party platform, he was running on a protectionist/anti-Paul Ryan plan platform.

lol though read Red State's spin on the election here: http://www.redstate.com/erick/2011/05/24/the-gop-loss-in-new-york-was-about-new-york-not-paul-ryan/

Right, because winning 2 special elections in Republican leaning districts in upstate New York was a clear predictor of the Democrat's strong performance in 2010, and a clear repudiation of the Republican's opposition to both the Stimulus and Obamacare.

The only thing this election really means in the long run is that Democrats will probably lose both House seats in NY from this redistricting.  And that some heads should roll in the NYGOP, but if that hasn't happened so far i doubt that this will provoke them into action.

This seat is CONSIDERABLY  more Republican and conservative than NY-20 and NY-23

By a whopping 4 points.  IIRC, you won both those elections by more than that

Obama won NY-23 by  5.22, McCain won NY-26 by 5.72.  we are talking about a difference larger than the difference between NC & SC, or roughly between Ohio & Georgia.
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« Reply #443 on: May 24, 2011, 10:08:12 pm »
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You're also forgetting that Corwin spent most of the campaign attacking Davis rather than Hocul.  It's probably one of the reasons her favorability with his voters was so bad, and why Hocul was able to run her campaign comparatively unscathed.

That doesn't really change the fact that the spoiler effect didn't have as much impact. It was about the Medicare issue and Davis opposed the Ryan plan, which says to me that all his supporters would not have been pro-Corwin.
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« Reply #444 on: May 24, 2011, 10:12:34 pm »
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NY- 23 did tell us something about 2010.  The more moderate Republican was leading, but a more conservative opponent replaced her, and went on to lose.  Sounds something like the Nevada, Colorado, and Delaware Senate races, doesn't it?
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Seriously. How many times can we read about the Obamachine 3000 pulling ahead of the Reagantronix QLZ in the race for Mars Mutant Colony's 48 electoral votes? Sheesh!
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« Reply #445 on: May 24, 2011, 10:17:16 pm »
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Right, because winning 2 special elections in Republican leaning districts in upstate New York was a clear predictor of the Democrat's strong performance in 2010, and a clear repudiation of the Republican's opposition to both the Stimulus and Obamacare.

The only thing this election really means in the long run is that Democrats will probably lose both House seats in NY from this redistricting.  And that some heads should roll in the NYGOP, but if that hasn't happened so far i doubt that this will provoke them into action.


Nah. Hochul has to move north to pick up the now unnecessary earmuffs. I actually think Slaughterhouse and Higgins get fairly compact districts this time around; there's little reason to give them much else. Hochul gets about what she has now.

What is likely to happen is that Higgins' district stays the same and Slaughter gets a district that is essentially all of Monroe County.  Hochul will then get a district that is half of Erie and all of Niagara. 
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jfern
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« Reply #446 on: May 24, 2011, 10:18:08 pm »
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Wow, this is big. This was one of only 2 districts in the state that Democrats hadn't manage to win yet.
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« Reply #447 on: May 24, 2011, 10:22:25 pm »
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Quote
Davis also conceded. I didnt get the message out this time, he said, the Buffalo News reported. Ill keep shouting it. I love America.

Bless his heart.
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« Reply #448 on: May 24, 2011, 10:24:42 pm »
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Wow, this is big. This was one of only 2 districts in the state that Democrats hadn't manage to win yet.

So what's the other one?  Thanks!
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« Reply #449 on: May 24, 2011, 10:26:41 pm »
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Wow, this is big. This was one of only 2 districts in the state that Democrats hadn't manage to win yet.

So what's the other one?  Thanks!
Peter King's district probably.
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