The NY-26 Election. Have fun but keep your shirt on. (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 01, 2024, 01:18:04 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  The NY-26 Election. Have fun but keep your shirt on. (search mode)
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: The NY-26 Election. Have fun but keep your shirt on.  (Read 49917 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« on: March 22, 2011, 07:49:42 AM »

So, that means it's safe Corwin ... ?

Or is that Davis guy a strongly conservative Democrat ?

I wish PPP would poll there, or even Siena College ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #1 on: March 27, 2011, 08:42:32 AM »

Endorsed.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #2 on: April 15, 2011, 09:07:18 AM »
It would be about time for a poll there ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #3 on: April 29, 2011, 05:07:15 PM »
Quote from: JohnnyLongtorso on April 29, 2011, 09:17:29 AM
Finally, a poll. Too bad it's Siena.

Jane Corwin (R) - 36
Kathy Hochul (D) - 31
Jack Davis (I) - 23
Ian Murphy (G) - 1

Favorables:

Corwin - 44/31
Hochul - 44/31
Davis - 42/41
Murphy - 5/17

Obama - 39/57 (don't know why they polled this and not approval)
Pelosi - 25/67
Boehner - 45/34
Cuomo - 72/20 (!)

This is about what I expected to see for this race ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #4 on: April 29, 2011, 05:21:39 PM »

Probably 3 reasons:

A) He was already a Democratic (I think) candidate for this seat in previous elections, which means big name recognition

B) He's running for the Tea Party, which means he's a good choice for protest voters, who are unhappy with recent handlings of Democrats and Republicans

C) He puts a lot of his own money into the race
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #5 on: May 06, 2011, 09:50:17 AM »
Politico has the scoop on a new internal poll out from the Kathy Hochul campaign which shows the Erie County Democrat in a dead heat for a race in an open Congressional seat against Republican Jane Corwin.

According to the poll, by Global Strategy Group, Corwin has 31 percent of the vote while Hochul grabs 30 percent. Independent candidate Jack Davis has 26 percent.

The race is to replace Christopher Lee, who resigned when half-nude photos of himself that he used to solicit dates onlines surfaced. The district is heavily Republican leaning one, but the presence of Davis has given Democrats an opening.

The poll is an internal one, and so should be taken with a grain of salt but is not different from a Siena poll taken last week which showed Corwin with a five point lead over Hochul.

http://www.observer.com/2011/politics/poll-corwinhochul-dead-heat
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #6 on: May 09, 2011, 11:50:28 AM »
Quote from: Partyin, Partyin, YEAH! on May 09, 2011, 11:06:39 AM
Apparently PPP will be releasing a poll today showing Hochul leading.

Says who ?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #7 on: May 09, 2011, 01:37:37 PM »
The numbers make sense.

This is a McCain+6 district, he won there 52-46.

This sample is 49-43 McCain, so it's about the 2008 electorate.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #8 on: May 21, 2011, 09:28:32 AM »
Interesting, but PPP needs a final poll there because Davis is rapidely imploding.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #9 on: May 21, 2011, 09:39:35 AM »
Quote from: The Master of My Domain on May 21, 2011, 09:34:12 AM
Interesting tidbit in the Siena poll. Jack Davis voters give President Obama a 34/66 favorability rating. If Davis collapses further, it seems unlikely that those voters would go to Hochul and would be more likely to go to Corwin.

On the other hand, Davis voters view Hochul much more favorable than Corwin (37-58 vs. 16-74).
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #10 on: May 24, 2011, 12:10:54 AM »
My prediction, before I´m off to work:

43.7% Hochul
41.9% Corwin
13.3% Davis
  1.1% Murphy
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #11 on: May 24, 2011, 02:39:28 PM »
This looks interesting, so I'll probably wake up at 3am in the morning to follow the results ... Tongue
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #12 on: May 24, 2011, 08:14:40 PM »
Should we post results in a new thread ?

PS: Have polls already closed in NY-26 ?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #13 on: May 24, 2011, 08:18:59 PM »
Quote from: Sam Spade on May 24, 2011, 08:16:27 PM
Quote from: Tender Branson on May 24, 2011, 08:14:40 PM
Should we post results in a new thread ?

PS: Have polls already closed in NY-26 ?

I don't think a new thread is warranted.

mkay
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #14 on: May 24, 2011, 08:27:54 PM »
Overall (87/627):

46% - 7,393 votes - Kathy Hochul (DEM)
43% - 7,004 votes - Jane Corwin (GOP)
10% - 1,644 votes - Jack Davis (TEA)
  1% -    200 votes - Ian Murphy (GRN)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #15 on: May 24, 2011, 08:30:23 PM »
Overall (115/627):

48% - 11,016 votes - Kathy Hochul (DEM)
42% -   9,495 votes - Jane Corwin (GOP)
  9% -   2,069 votes - Jack Davis (TEA)
  1% -      226 votes - Ian Murphy (GRN)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #16 on: May 24, 2011, 08:36:04 PM »
Overall (210/627):

48% - 18,022 votes - Kathy Hochul (DEM)
42% - 16,033 votes - Jane Corwin (GOP)
  9% -   3,369 votes - Jack Davis (TEA)
  1% -      408 votes - Ian Murphy (GRN)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #17 on: May 24, 2011, 08:41:30 PM »
Here´s a comparison of Hochul and Kryzan in 2008:

Erie: Kryzan (45%), Hochul (55%) +10

Livingston: Kryzan (39%), Hochul (43%) +4

Monroe: Kryzan (40%), Hochul (43%) +3

Niagara: Kryzan (41%), Hochul (43%) +2

Wyoming: Kryzan (32%), Hochul (44%) +12

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/county/#NYH26p1
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #18 on: May 24, 2011, 08:43:52 PM »
Overall (281/627):

48% - 23,744 votes - Kathy Hochul (DEM)
42% - 20,888 votes - Jane Corwin (GOP)
  9% -   4,169 votes - Jack Davis (TEA)
  1% -      538 votes - Ian Murphy (GRN)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #19 on: May 24, 2011, 08:45:36 PM »
Overall (345/627):

48% - 29,063 votes - Kathy Hochul (DEM)
43% - 26,277 votes - Jane Corwin (GOP)
  8% -   5,090 votes - Jack Davis (TEA)
  1% -      658 votes - Ian Murphy (GRN)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #20 on: May 24, 2011, 08:49:17 PM »
Yeah, this is pretty much a done deal for Hochul now ... Smiley
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #21 on: May 24, 2011, 08:52:40 PM »
The PPP poll with Hochul+6 seems to be on a good track too.

It seems they now are better with polling special elections.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #22 on: May 24, 2011, 08:54:29 PM »
Overall (394/627):

48% - 33,607 votes - Kathy Hochul (DEM)
43% - 29,620 votes - Jane Corwin (GOP)
  8% -   5,682 votes - Jack Davis (TEA)
  1% -      742 votes - Ian Murphy (GRN)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #23 on: May 24, 2011, 08:57:26 PM »
Is it possible that she gets close to 50% after all ?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #24 on: May 24, 2011, 09:03:55 PM »
Overall (462/627):

48% - 38,502 votes - Kathy Hochul (DEM) - WINNER
42% - 33,718 votes - Jane Corwin (GOP)
  8% -   6,595 votes - Jack Davis (TEA)
  1% -      858 votes - Ian Murphy (GRN)
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.042 seconds with 12 queries.