The NY-26 Election. Have fun but keep your shirt on. (user search)
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  The NY-26 Election. Have fun but keep your shirt on. (search mode)
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Author Topic: The NY-26 Election. Have fun but keep your shirt on.  (Read 49908 times)
Brittain33
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« on: April 15, 2011, 09:10:11 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on April 15, 2011, 09:07:18 AM
It would be about time for a poll there ...

I'd be surprised if the DCCC hasn't been polling the race already, and the absence of leaks or press releases indicates what they're (not) finding.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1 on: May 09, 2011, 11:22:30 AM »
Quote from: Partyin, Partyin, YEAH! on May 09, 2011, 11:06:39 AM
Apparently PPP will be releasing a poll today showing Hochul leading.

I'm glad this election will give us a test case, however flawed, about PPP's positive numbers for Dems.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #2 on: May 09, 2011, 02:12:33 PM »
Corwin is standing by the Ryan plan to privatize Medicare. She may still win, but it would have been easier if she took a note from Mark Critz's notebook...
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Brittain33
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« Reply #3 on: May 09, 2011, 07:32:26 PM »

She'll be 83 at the next election...
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Brittain33
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« Reply #4 on: May 10, 2011, 11:07:34 AM »

Ok, but how much influence does she have in Albany?
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Brittain33
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« Reply #5 on: May 16, 2011, 10:04:41 PM »
Rothenberg has moved the race to toss-up/lean Democratic. Claims that Davis is deflating but Corwin is not benefiting. Holy crap. Special elections in upstate New York are just unnecessarily cruel to Republicans, no?
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Brittain33
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« Reply #6 on: May 24, 2011, 01:50:15 AM »
Ditto the pessimism. We need a wacky turnout model or serious Republican antipathy to Corwin and the Ryan plan for Hochul to pull this out with Davis below 10%. I think this is going to be a heartbreaker for Hochul.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #7 on: May 25, 2011, 03:55:24 PM »
Could they have dumped this much money into the race without advertising in Rochester? Seems like they'd hit declining marginal returns in Buffalo and someone would think to hit the share of the district in Monroe.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #8 on: May 26, 2011, 05:05:42 AM »
An alternative explanation drawn from something I saw in DKE: the Monroe end of the district is more Republican than the district as a whole. If we saw higher relative Dem turnout and enthusiam than in recent elections, a sound assumption, then that could account for the difference. Plus both candidates having a base in the western end.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #9 on: May 26, 2011, 02:05:57 PM »
All DKE said was that the Monroe county part is more Republican than the district as a whole. The rest was me.
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