The NY-26 Election. Have fun but keep your shirt on.

[Badger]

Now that we know who the two major party nominees are, the topic line is even more important for them to follow.

Anyhow, aside from 3rd parties and/or scandal, am I correct to assume that it will be a steep uphill climb for the Dems, esp. considering that NY-26 is more conservative than NY-23?

This district, or rather the 28th district was drawn specifically for the purpose of allowing Tom Reynolds to "vote like a Southern Conservative" in this district. This is one of the four districts that McCain actually won over Obama, unlike NY-23 which Obama carried narrowly and was far more Legacy Republican than it was structurally Republican.

This is all very true, however, being from the area I can say that Hochul is extremely well know and loved in Western New York. She won her re-election campaign as county clerk in 2010with 79% of the vote (granted it was only Erie County and this district is does not include most of Erie County). However, she is relatively well known, throughout most of the counties Western New York.This, and the fact that she is very wealthy and may be willing to spend some of her own money on this campaign may certainly help her. Certainly she faces an uphill battle in a conservative district against Jane Corwin who, although not well know at all, is spending loads of her own money already on this election.  

As much as I would love to share your optimism, how is a county clerk "extremely well known"? Unless she held a more prominent local office previously or comes from a local political dynasty, I'd warrant only a tiny percentage of voters know who their county clerk is. The 79% reelection sounds like someone running for reelection in a Democratic county with no public scandals or incompetence and people voting for the Democrat and/or marginally more familiar name. And as you said, little of Erie County is in this district; I'd guess her name ID outside Erie is in the single digits.

My, aren't I a wet blanket this morning? Please feel free to explain if I'm wrong as you know the local political scene much better than I, and I'd love to become encouraged that this might actually turn into something resembling a race.

[Badger]

Now that we know who the two major party nominees are, the topic line is even more important for them to follow.

Anyhow, aside from 3rd parties and/or scandal, am I correct to assume that it will be a steep uphill climb for the Dems, esp. considering that NY-26 is more conservative than NY-23?

This district, or rather the 28th district was drawn specifically for the purpose of allowing Tom Reynolds to "vote like a Southern Conservative" in this district. This is one of the four districts that McCain actually won over Obama, unlike NY-23 which Obama carried narrowly and was far more Legacy Republican than it was structurally Republican.

This is all very true, however, being from the area I can say that Hochul is extremely well know and loved in Western New York. She won her re-election campaign as county clerk in 2010with 79% of the vote (granted it was only Erie County and this district is does not include most of Erie County). However, she is relatively well known, throughout most of the counties Western New York.This, and the fact that she is very wealthy and may be willing to spend some of her own money on this campaign may certainly help her. Certainly she faces an uphill battle in a conservative district against Jane Corwin who, although not well know at all, is spending loads of her own money already on this election.  

As much as I would love to share your optimism, how is a county clerk "extremely well known"? Unless she held a more prominent local office previously or comes from a local political dynasty, I'd warrant only a tiny percentage of voters know who their county clerk is. The 79% reelection sounds like someone running for reelection in a Democratic county with no public scandals or incompetence and people voting for the Democrat and/or marginally more familiar name. And as you said, little of Erie County is in this district; I'd guess her name ID outside Erie is in the single digits.

My, aren't I a wet blanket this morning? Please feel free to explain if I'm wrong as you know the local political scene much better than I, and I'd love to become encouraged that this might actually turn into something resembling a race.

I certainly agree with you and any democrat in this district faces an uphill climb.  I would rate Corwin as a front runner right now.  What I am saying, however, Hochul may have the ability to turn this into some sort of a race at least.  In response to your question of her name recognition outside (and I guess even in) of Erie County, I would say that it is higher than one may expect for a county clerk.  She has been highly visible throughout her tenure and every week she writes news articles and many of the regional and town papers (both in and outside of Erie County) publish them. I don't know how many people actually read these, but her name had been out there.  However, she is a Democrat running in one of the most conservative districts in the state. 

Cool. Thanks for the insight (you too, ag).

[Badger]

Politico has the scoop on a new internal poll out from the Kathy Hochul campaign which shows the Erie County Democrat in a dead heat for a race in an open Congressional seat against Republican Jane Corwin.

According to the poll, by Global Strategy Group, Corwin has 31 percent of the vote while Hochul grabs 30 percent. Independent candidate Jack Davis has 26 percent.

The race is to replace Christopher Lee, who resigned when half-nude photos of himself that he used to solicit dates onlines surfaced. The district is heavily Republican leaning one, but the presence of Davis has given Democrats an opening.

The poll is an internal one, and so should be taken with a grain of salt but is not different from a Siena poll taken last week which showed Corwin with a five point lead over Hochul.

http://www.observer.com/2011/politics/poll-corwinhochul-dead-heat

One can usually still use an internal to gauge the actual status of the race by simply knocking several points off the candidate behind the poll. Adding that grain of salt to a poll showing Hochul one point down tends to coroborate the recent Siena poll.

Close race. Even Davis isn't entirely out of it yet.

[Badger]

Not necessarily. Staffers are free to help out with political campaigns in their own free time. They'd run into legal issues if he was doing this during the workday or if he used state resources in some way.

In my experience, almost every legislative office staffer winds up doubling as a political campaign staffer -- most save up vacation days for use in late October/early November. It's definitely illegal for the two efforts to overlap, which is why campaigns, candidates, and staffers usually go to great lengths to ensure they operate within the law.

So, is there any indication that paper wall was broken here?

Polls, someonw. Do a poll!

[Badger]

I don't see how that could happen. It's a big struggle to draw two Obama +10 districts out of Buffalo alone, and a Monroe County district wouldn't be more than +10 to 12 Obama. That's pretty solid, but not necessarily safe, especially for an immoderate like Slaughter. Western NY is really conservative compared to the rest of the state, or even compared to NY-23 (which borders Vermont and Quebec, after all); Buffalo, Niagara Falls ,and a few suburban municipalities are the only Dem-friendly places, except for the odd college town (e.g. Geneseo, Alfred). Any attempt to squeeze 3 Dem districts out of Rochester and Buffalo would be a dummymander.

The most likely outcome, I think, is that the Dems sacrifice the seat to avoid putting anyone else on the line. Higgins gets a Buffalo-Niagara Falls district that went for Obama by over 60%, Slaughter gets a similarly solid Rochester-Syracuse or Rochester-Ithaca district. Higgins or Owens might pick up any Dem leftovers in Syracuse or Tompkins county.

Welcome to the forum, and please post much more often.

[Badger]

Another lame spoiler election. It worked in my party's favor this time, but it's still stupid...

It's definitely not a spoiler election because Davis wasn't running on a Tea Party platform, he was running on a protectionist/anti-Paul Ryan plan platform.

lol though read Red State's spin on the election here: http://www.redstate.com/erick/2011/05/24/the-gop-loss-in-new-york-was-about-new-york-not-paul-ryan/

Right, because winning 2 special elections in Republican leaning districts in upstate New York was a clear predictor of the Democrat's strong performance in 2010, and a clear repudiation of the Republican's opposition to both the Stimulus and Obamacare.

The only thing this election really means in the long run is that Democrats will probably lose both House seats in NY from this redistricting.  And that some heads should roll in the NYGOP, but if that hasn't happened so far i doubt that this will provoke them into action.

Whereas those other races were run as much on local issues (e.g. carpetbagging) rather than national (where otherwise craptastic GOP candidates actually won significant support), the focal issue here was the Ryan Medicare "dead in a decade" plan.

If Republicans really want to ascribe this to local issues and personalities, I happily URGE them to replay this platform next year.