Nichlemn
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,920
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« on: May 25, 2011, 03:00:45 AM » |
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Rationally speaking, Hochul winning shouldn't make any great difference to redistricting. NY State Senate Republicans have the same bargaining power as they did before (perhaps slightly decreased as the election updates our beliefs about their future electoral prospects, but only very marginally). If their bargaining power gave them an expectation of X% of the electoral cake yesterday, then their almost identical bargaining power should give them almost exactly X% of the electoral cake today. How the cake is divided now should be irrelevant.
However, in practice, this probably won't be the case. Redistricters seem to suffer from status quo bias (hence the occasional "incumbent protection map" that is really one party's gerrymander).
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