Kyl to retire

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I am not so sure on Flake being a lock for the nomination. His immigration views are not in line with what the AZ gop primary would be looking for right now.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

http://www.rollcall.com/news/-203364-1.html

Flake is announcing his campaign tomorrow. It will be interesting to see who replaces him in the house.

Its deeply Republican seat, though changes are possible of course, not knowing exactly what will happen in redistricting, I think it will probably be safely Republican. Probably be a nastly primary fight amongst several legislators, mayors, sherrifs, local officials of various types. I doubt it will be someone as principled as Flake.


Its also a shame, because Flake finally got his seat on the appropriatons committee, didn't he?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If the Republicans end up nominating Pearce for the district it could be an interesting race. I think he would ultimately win, but it would be a lot closer than if any other Republican ran there.

I doubt Steve Pearce is going to ditch his House seat just to move to Arizona and run for a different one.

http://tucsoncitizen.com/in-the-aggregate/2011/02/13/russell-pearce-to-run-for-us-congress-if-jeff-flake-runs-for-kyl%E2%80%99s-us-senate-seat/

Why would Russell Pearce make it closer. If anything he would be stronger because his name recognition is higher. Now if a bunch of hispanics get put here maybe.

But its R+15, presently with a lot of mormons in it. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arizona%27s_6th_congressional_district

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If the Republicans end up nominating Pearce for the district it could be an interesting race. I think he would ultimately win, but it would be a lot closer than if any other Republican ran there.

I doubt Steve Pearce is going to ditch his House seat just to move to Arizona and run for a different one.

http://tucsoncitizen.com/in-the-aggregate/2011/02/13/russell-pearce-to-run-for-us-congress-if-jeff-flake-runs-for-kyl%E2%80%99s-us-senate-seat/

Why would Russell Pearce make it closer. If anything he would be stronger because his name recognition is higher. Now if a bunch of hispanics get put here maybe.

But its R+15, presently with a lot of mormons in it. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arizona%27s_6th_congressional_district

Ties to neo-nazis.

How big are the ties?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Yea, that doesn't seem like enough for this district.


Now he will probably underperform Flake on a regular basis (which is different from asking if he would do worse then someone else as any new guy would do worse then Flake) but, like Franks has done in several elections, Pearce would stuggle to get above 60% while his predecessor won by 2-1 or more (in the case of Franks, Stump's last two results were 67% and 66%, while Franks kept getting in the high 50's in five elections until he got 65% in 2010).

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If thats the case, Flake may be screwed. His glaring vulnerability is an issue at the top of GOP primary voter's minds, and Franks is on the right side of that arguement.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If thats the case, Flake may be screwed. His glaring vulnerability is an issue at the top of GOP primary voter's minds, and Franks is on the right side of that arguement.

Although he has an ACU of 96, Flake appears a lot more rational and levelheaded then Trent Franks. Franks is a fundie pervert.

And that is supposed to challenge my point about Flake being weak in a primary?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Flake just pulled a John McCain on Immigration.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

So who's going to carry the tea-party mantle in AZ.  Paging J.D....

Flake does have appeal to the Tea Party. The problem is that immigration issue.