UK AV Referendum Poll

[Хahar 🤔]

@Antonio, I for one don't like FPTP, yet I have discovered that I like AV even less. It is (or has the potential to be) less proportional, even when people base their . Under AV the BNP hypothetically could poll 25% nationwide, but still win only 1 or 2 seats, because they'd be poisonous in terms of preferences. I can see a similar situation with the Greens or some more likable party. Australia seems to be the best case study.

A good example would be the Scottish Conservatives; the Conservatives could make a comeback but still be without seats under AV. Had the Holyrood election been under AV in 2007 (in the constituencies) the Tories are unlikely to have won any seats (they won 4) Playing around with the figures, the Tories could poll 30% in Scotland at Holyrood (I wish!) and still walk away 1 seat out of 73.

AV discourages a broad set of ideas and policies, bringing less choice for voters, in comparison to FPTP. It's awful.

It may even be worse than that. Let's says there's a seat where the 'big 3' stand and the BNP. BNP finish last, which is great, but their second preferences are counted (and perhaps only theirs) putting a candidate over the line. Whose vote is the elected MP going to try and court throughout the parliament and at the next campaign? 

I don't recall that happening with One Nation in Australia.

[Insula Dei]

But One Nation wasn't very relevant during a prolonged amount of time, no?

[Хahar 🤔]

But One Nation wasn't very relevant during a prolonged amount of time, no?

Far more relevant than the BNP has ever been, certainly.

[YL]

Voted Yes (and Green in the locals; would have voted Labour in those if it had been about the national parties, but it isn't).  I don't expect either vote to be on the winning side.

[minionofmidas]

Does anyone care what Miliband thinks of this anything.

No, which is a good sign for Cameron I'd guess.

On what basis? Labour, under E-Mil, have been leading in near enough every poll this year; I doubt any Labour leader could've stopped Labour voters giving the Lib Dems a kicking,  via the AV referendum, after a year of provocation.

Ed Milliband just seems like a weak, uninspiring leader to me. From what I can tell he seems unable to catch any real media spot light, has very weak preformances during PMQs (of course much better than Nick Clegg who is beyond terrible) and the speeches I've seen from him seem mildly exciting at best.

I believe Ed has as much to do with Labour's strong polling numbers at the moment as he does with NO's poor one's. I saw the Swedish-left lead by Sahlin ahead of Reinfeldt's goverment by more than 10% in his early years, but in the end they still lost by 5% due to the fact that their strong showing in polls was built on disapproval of the Reinfeldt goverment rather than actual support for their own policies, or their own leader.

Now I'm not saying Milliband is Sahlin, she was out-right loathed while Ed seems to simply be irrelevant.   

Well, I guess this is the kind of leader AV gives us Labourites.

While under fptp Clegg would have been cloned and made to lead both parties.

[minionofmidas]

Al, what are the plans for tomorrow night? Are we going to keep all the UK results to one thread, or to multiple threads for each election?

There will have to be a lot of threads in order to avoid confusion. So...

1. Wales

2. Scotland

3. Northern Ireland

4. English Municipals

5. That Miserable Compromise

Well... technically six... but there's obviously no need for a new thread on the Leicester South by-election.

Nor the 4th and 5th really - the English Municipals thread is but a few pages long, and this one won't get all that much longer.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hmm... probably true. I've already done a thread for the one (might merge or remove it; don't know), but, yeah, won't bother with this one.

[Serenity Now]

I managed to tactically vote in a referendum with only a yes/no question. Win.*


*'Yes' because I'm unenthusiastic about AV but don't want a huge margin for 'no' to be taken as a mandate for FPTP.

[You kip if you want to...]

Apparently, some places aren't giving out referendum ballots, you have to ask for one. That's pretty awful...

[Franzl]

Apparently, some places aren't giving out referendum ballots, you have to ask for one. That's pretty awful...

where?

[You kip if you want to...]

Apparently, some places aren't giving out referendum ballots, you have to ask for one. That's pretty awful...

where?

Got tweeted by a Sky News reporter earlier and some other people have tweeted it.

[You kip if you want to...]

The Family Guy mentality of the youth-driven Yes campaign (bit like the youth-driven 2010 LibDem election campaign).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0YOh-rpvjYg

"Change. Because MPs are bad."
"How will AV fix the system?"
"David. Cameron."
"Will it make the system fairer?"
"Change. Hope. Fair."

[Joe Republic]

And of course, the No campaign has been nothing but honest, accurate, and sticking to the topic... *looks at your signature*... oh.

[You kip if you want to...]

And of course, the No campaign has been nothing but honest, accurate, and sticking to the topic... *looks at your signature*... oh.

Both campaigns have played it dirty.

[Phony Moderate]

And of course, the No campaign has been nothing but honest, accurate, and sticking to the topic... *looks at your signature*... oh.

It seems that you always play the role of the junior spokesperson of the Left.

[Joe Republic]

Both campaigns have played it dirty.

Indeed, you're demonstrating that pretty well, even if only half intentionally.

It seems that you always play the role of the junior spokesperson of the Left.

... Okay.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How did everyone vote on this very important issue? I did what I said I'd do and scrawled abuse on the ballot paper. And put a '1' in one box and a '2' in the other.

[You kip if you want to...]

How did everyone vote on this very important issue? I did what I said I'd do and scrawled abuse on the ballot paper. And put a '1' in one box and a '2' in the other.

Had a mock referendum in college. Voted no.

[Peter]

I'm suffering from significant apathy on the AV v. FPTP question (and thats on the merits of the matter, rather than the appalling campaigns) - in the end I "gave" my to my 6th formers. They asked me to vote yes. So I have.

My local elections ward (returning 2 councillors) had 2 Tories (both incumbent), a Green and an Indie (ex LD) standing. I voted for the Green and LD. I think there's a fighting chance the Greenie could get in. The LD is a bit of a bitter hack about the coalition, so he probably won't make it.

And then I had a vote for my Parish Council (which I didn't even know was having elections! - and I call myself an election geek) - we have to choose 12 from 15 candidates. I worked out who were the 3 who lived furthest away, and then voted for the rest.

[You kip if you want to...]

Opinium/Evening Standard - 64/36 to NO

[afleitch]

I voted No. Which was the first ballot I filled in.

(For the record I voted Conservative on the Glasgow regional list then for the SNP candidate in Rutherglen.)

[Silent Hunter]

I voted NO. That was the only ballot I filled in.

(I live in London - no other elections for us this year and it'll probably show in any turnout breakdowns).

[Peter the Lefty]

To be honest, I'd be happier with a PR-based system if we had a party system more like that of Germany; with a fourth large party.

One word: Greens.