Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 23, 2014, 12:14:13 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  International Elections (Moderator: PASOK Leader Hashemite)
| | |-+  UK AV Referendum Poll
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 8 9 10 11 12 [13] 14 15 16 Print
Poll
Question: Do you want the United Kingdom to adopt the 'alternative vote' system instead of the current 'first past the post' system for electing Members of Parliament to the House of Commons?
Yes   -30 (69.8%)
No   -13 (30.2%)
Show Pie Chart
Total Voters: 43

Author Topic: UK AV Referendum Poll  (Read 19015 times)
You kip if you want to...
change08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8728
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #300 on: April 30, 2011, 07:14:55 pm »
Ignore

I know that, which is why countries with more than two significant parties have no business using FPTP.

Or any majoritarian system, for that matter. We're being asked whether we want a system that doesn't fit Britain or a new system which also doesn't fit the country.
Logged

Joe Republic
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30720
United States


View Profile
« Reply #301 on: April 30, 2011, 07:24:33 pm »
Ignore

I disagree with your latter assessment; pretty much anything is better than FPTP.  It seems like most of the specific arguments against AV have largely fallen flat.  Not that it matters any more though, once the matter of reforming the constitution became a debate on the Deputy Prime Minister instead.
Logged



Real Americans (and Big Sky Bob) demand to know.


I just slept for 11 hours, so I should need a nap today, but we'll see.
Sibboleth
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 56823
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #302 on: April 30, 2011, 07:30:28 pm »
Ignore

I disagree with your latter assessment; pretty much anything is better than FPTP.

From the point of view you have, PR with two seat districts would be worse (actually that's dreadful from almost all points of view), as would FPTP with multi-seat districts (which we have in local elections in some places, notably London). Functionally, I don't think a switch from FPTP to optional-preference AV would make much of a difference.

Quote
Not that it matters any more though, once the matter of reforming the constitution became a debate on the Deputy Prime Minister instead.

Often the way with referendums.
Logged

"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
True Federalist
Ernest
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28449
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #303 on: April 30, 2011, 08:24:07 pm »
Ignore

The electoral college is really a warped, presidential version of FPTP. It's just that the US only has two parties so it works properly. When there's a significant 3rd candidate, it breaks down (Ralph Nader).

Nader never was and never could be a significant third candidate.
Logged

My November ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
Yes: Amendment 1 (Gen. Assembly may allow and regulate charity raffles)
No: Amendment 2 (end election of the Adjutant General)
You kip if you want to...
change08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8728
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #304 on: April 30, 2011, 08:25:12 pm »
Ignore

The electoral college is really a warped, presidential version of FPTP. It's just that the US only has two parties so it works properly. When there's a significant 3rd candidate, it breaks down (Ralph Nader).

Nader never was and never could be a significant third candidate.

Significant in that he, arguably, swung Florida to Bush...
Logged

only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58778
India


View Profile
« Reply #305 on: May 01, 2011, 03:30:30 am »
Ignore

I disagree with your latter assessment; pretty much anything is better than FPTP.

From the point of view you have, PR with two seat districts would be worse (actually that's dreadful from almost all points of view), as would FPTP with multi-seat districts (which we have in local elections in some places, notably London).
Well, yeah. But no one is thinking of introducing these things anywhere. It is only a matter of not enough people understanding that they need to go where they exist (the Chilene parliament and UK and some US local elections, respectively. Don't think they exist anywhere else in the world.)
Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
Хahar
Xahar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 38877
Bangladesh


View Profile
« Reply #306 on: May 01, 2011, 03:40:06 am »
Ignore

I disagree with your latter assessment; pretty much anything is better than FPTP.

From the point of view you have, PR with two seat districts would be worse (actually that's dreadful from almost all points of view), as would FPTP with multi-seat districts (which we have in local elections in some places, notably London).
Well, yeah. But no one is thinking of introducing these things anywhere. It is only a matter of not enough people understanding that they need to go where they exist (the Chilene parliament and UK and some US local elections, respectively. Don't think they exist anywhere else in the world.)

I find it amusing but also sad that Chile still uses Pinochet's ridiculous electoral law. It may be the worst system in the world that isn't actively antidemocratic.
Logged

Update reading list

The idea of parodying the preceding Atlasian's postings is laughable, of course, but not for reasons one might expect.
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31176
France


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -4.87

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #307 on: May 01, 2011, 03:45:11 am »
Ignore

How does it work ? I'm curious.
Logged

Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58778
India


View Profile
« Reply #308 on: May 01, 2011, 03:57:39 am »
Ignore

You have one vote. Top two votegetters elected in every constituency.
I'm not sure, maybe it's D'Hondt and you can have a running mate and get both seats if you poll twice as much as the nearest opposition. Anyways the result is that parliament is always almost exactly half Conservative and half the Left Coalition (which really is a coalition, not a single party), with the occasional stray indy.

EDIT: Looks it up and yeah, that's right. Two candidate "lists", and D'Hondt. Oh, and they're open "lists", at least.
« Last Edit: May 01, 2011, 03:59:30 am by now it's time to overreact »Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31176
France


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -4.87

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #309 on: May 01, 2011, 05:44:16 am »
Ignore

You have one vote. Top two votegetters elected in every constituency.
I'm not sure, maybe it's D'Hondt and you can have a running mate and get both seats if you poll twice as much as the nearest opposition. Anyways the result is that parliament is always almost exactly half Conservative and half the Left Coalition (which really is a coalition, not a single party), with the occasional stray indy.

EDIT: Looks it up and yeah, that's right. Two candidate "lists", and D'Hondt. Oh, and they're open "lists", at least.

LOL, that's retarded indeed.
Logged

Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
You kip if you want to...
change08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8728
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #310 on: May 01, 2011, 07:13:41 am »
Ignore

The Sunday Times/YouGov says that voters think a Yes would hurt Dave slightly more than a No would hurt Clegg and a No vote would be slightly more likely to destablise the coalition. Wouldn't have expected that.

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/st20110501.pdf
Logged

Sibboleth
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 56823
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #311 on: May 01, 2011, 08:35:19 am »
Ignore

It is only a matter of not enough people understanding that they need to go where they exist (the Chilene parliament and UK and some US local elections, respectively. Don't think they exist anywhere else in the world.)

Well, yeah. Was just pointing out that even from a 'proportionality is good' perspective, there are worse systems around than what we have now.

Of course one of the many reeking features of this unnecessary referendum is the fact that AV would only be introduced for General Elections, meaning that the far worse electoral system used in local elections in more than a few parts of the country (did you know that there are actually a few five member FPTP wards in Wales? Actually you probably did; most reading this won't though) will remain in place no matter the outcome of the poll.
Logged

"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
Swedish Cheese
JOHN91043353
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3803
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -4.00

View Profile
« Reply #312 on: May 01, 2011, 08:45:04 am »
Ignore

To me it seems increadibly strange to use different voting systems for different levels of goverment. Of course the only variations that exist in Sweden is that County Council elections have a 3% threshold instead of a 4%, and that city council elections have no threshold at all and no evening out seats. 
Logged

Sibboleth
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 56823
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #313 on: May 01, 2011, 08:55:44 am »
Ignore

To me it seems increadibly strange to use different voting systems for different levels of goverment. Of course the only variations that exist in Sweden is that County Council elections have a 3% threshold instead of a 4%, and that city council elections have no threshold at all and no evening out seats. 

There's nothing British politicians love more than piecemeal reform, nothing the Civil Service hates more than comprehensive reform.
Logged

"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31176
France


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -4.87

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #314 on: May 01, 2011, 10:10:14 am »
Ignore

To me it seems increadibly strange to use different voting systems for different levels of goverment.

France beats every country for that matter :
- Two-round FPTP for Presidential.
- Two-round FPTP (with different qualification criteria) for Parliamentaries and Cantonals.
- Proportional representation by constituencies without a threshold for Europeans.
- Proportional representation with a 10% threshold and a 25% majority bonus for Regionals.
- Proportional representation with a 10% threshold and a 50% majority bonus for Municipals, except in Paris, Lyon and Marseille.

Not to speak about Senatorials...
Logged

Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58778
India


View Profile
« Reply #315 on: May 01, 2011, 10:23:53 am »
Ignore

Five seats? Crikey. I thought Welsh wards were small, mostly? (Okay, so not in Cardiff.) Where be these five member wards?
Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
Sibboleth
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 56823
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #316 on: May 01, 2011, 10:31:42 am »
Ignore

Five seats? Crikey. I thought Welsh wards were small, mostly? (Okay, so not in Cardiff.) Where be these five member wards?

There are two in Swansea; Morriston and Sketty. Had those utter idiots on the Local Government Boundary Committee for Wales not been stopped before their deranged plans became official many more wards of that sort would have been drawn elsewhere in Wales.
Logged

"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58778
India


View Profile
« Reply #317 on: May 01, 2011, 10:45:15 am »
Ignore

Lol.
Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
Acting like I'm Morrissey w/o the wit
Leftbehind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3181
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #318 on: May 01, 2011, 11:42:39 am »
Ignore

The Sunday Times/YouGov says that voters think a Yes would hurt Dave slightly more than a No would hurt Clegg and a No vote would be slightly more likely to destablise the coalition. Wouldn't have expected that.

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/st20110501.pdf

Probably because, as an earlier question shown, the argument made by pro-AV-ers in a desperate appeal to Labour voters that it'll help keep the Tories out and Liberal/Labour in has gained traction.

As CS has pointed out, it's complete revisionism and a perfect example of the Pro-AV following the anti-AV crowd into the gutter, employing complete lies.

What was most interesting was the question asking what the referendum should've been on, and what the vote would be;

35% A referendum on PR
28% Neither
27% don't know
 9% A referendum on AV

...and if there were a referendum on PR

37% would vote in favour of retaining FPTP
34% would vote in favour of changing to PR
22% don't know
 7% wouldn't vote

So, a 3-point lead for FPTP>PR and a 10-point lead for FPTP>AV.
Logged

You kip if you want to...
change08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8728
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #319 on: May 01, 2011, 02:46:27 pm »
Ignore

It's still got me annoyed how Huhne can even try and profess that he wants his party to be part of a progressive majority. As part of this coalition, he's part of the problem. I hope he'll man-up and resign, first thing on Friday morning, if he honestly thinks of himself as a progressive.

Although, he didn't have the guts to show up to the tuition vote, so I don't know if he'll have the guts to pull Clegg down.

AV's probably the only way Huhne's seat doesn't turn blue at the next election anyway.
« Last Edit: May 01, 2011, 07:34:30 pm by Refudiate »Logged

Peter
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6066


Political Matrix
E: -0.77, S: -7.48

View Profile
« Reply #320 on: May 02, 2011, 07:01:10 am »
Ignore

Does anybody know to what level of detail the results will be reported?

In Scotland/Wales I suppose it makes sense to report by devolved consituency?

In England/Northern Ireland, by local authority?
Logged

Retarded babies should be fed to crocodiles.
only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58778
India


View Profile
« Reply #321 on: May 02, 2011, 11:10:50 am »
Ignore

Offtopic, but I just realized that with lots of people mixing their vote between parties or just voting for part of the slate of their preferred party and letting their remaining votes go to waste, it can be argued as if voters behave much as if under open list pr already. So it seems reasonable to count results on that principle to see what it would do to seat distribution.

I'll start with Swansea (obviously, the single seat wards don't need counting.) Brum might be interesting to do, too.
Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58778
India


View Profile
« Reply #322 on: May 02, 2011, 11:56:49 am »
Ignore

Note: I used D'Hondt.

Well, the overall composition change isn't huge:

Labour 26 (-4)
LD 23 (no change)
Con 7 (+3)
Independents 6 (-1)
independent@Swansea 6 (no change)
PC 3 (+2)
People's Representative 1 (no change)

Of this, 18 are elected in single-member seats anyhow:
Con 4, Labour 3, LD 3, Independents 3, i@Swansea 3, PC 1, People's Rep 1

For the remaining 54 councillors from 18 wards with 2 to 5 seats, it's

Labour 23 (-4), LD 20 (0), Independents 3 (-1), i@Swansea 3 (0), Con 3 (+3), PC 2 (+2)

by ward:
West Cross (2)
Labour 1 (-1), Con 1 (+1)
Dunvant (2)
LD 2 (no change)
Penyrheo (2)l
Labour 1, i@Swansea 1 (no change)
Pontarddulais (2)
Labour 1, i@Swansea 1 (no change)
Sketty (5)
LD 3 (-2), Con 1 (+1), Labour 1 (+1)
Uplands (4)
LD 3 (-1), Labour 1 (+1)
Townhill (3)
Labour 2 (-1), LD 1 (+1)
Castle (4)
Labour 2 (-2), LD 1 (+1), PC 1 (+1)
Cwmbwrla (3)
LD 3 (no change)
Cockett (4)
LD 2 (-2), Labour 1 (+1), PC 1 (+1)
Penderry (3)
Labour 2 (-1), LD 1 (+1)
Landore (2)
LD 1 (-1), Labour 1 (+1)
Mynyddbach (3)
Labour 2, i@Swansea 1 (no change)
Morriston (5)
Labour 3 (-2), LD 2 (+2)
Clydach (2)
Labour 1 (-1), LD 1 (+1)
Llansamlet (4)
Labour 2 (-1), Independents 1 (0), Con 1 (+1)
Bonymaen (2)
Labour 1 (0), Independents 1 (0)
Saint Thomas (2)
Independents 1 (-1), Labour 1 (+1)
Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
Meeker
meekermariner
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14170


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -2.61

View Profile
« Reply #323 on: May 02, 2011, 04:31:33 pm »
Ignore

I once had a summer camp counselor from Swansea.

He taught us to always spit after saying Cardiff.
Logged
Bro-mentum
tomm_86
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1174
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #324 on: May 03, 2011, 11:59:03 am »
Ignore

The Sunday Times/YouGov says that voters think a Yes would hurt Dave slightly more than a No would hurt Clegg and a No vote would be slightly more likely to destablise the coalition. Wouldn't have expected that.

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/st20110501.pdf

Probably because, as an earlier question shown, the argument made by pro-AV-ers in a desperate appeal to Labour voters that it'll help keep the Tories out and Liberal/Labour in has gained traction.

As CS has pointed out, it's complete revisionism and a perfect example of the Pro-AV following the anti-AV crowd into the gutter, employing complete lies.

What was most interesting was the question asking what the referendum should've been on, and what the vote would be;

35% A referendum on PR
28% Neither
27% don't know
 9% A referendum on AV

...and if there were a referendum on PR

37% would vote in favour of retaining FPTP
34% would vote in favour of changing to PR
22% don't know
 7% wouldn't vote

So, a 3-point lead for FPTP>PR and a 10-point lead for FPTP>AV.

Talk about an enthusiasm gap..
Logged

Pages: 1 ... 8 9 10 11 12 [13] 14 15 16 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines