UK AV Referendum Poll

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LOL no. It's not PR and the Liberals shouldn't be rewarded for their poor governmental skills.

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Bit far, but I see wheat it's saying:

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I was away for the Clegg/Cam speeches, just watching them now. Dave's is really good, one of the only things I agree with him on.

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I was going to vote no*, but I think I'll take a leaf out of some of the posters in this thread and just spoil my ballot with a statement making clear I wanted PR on there.

*
1) the system itself rewards centrism - the last thing we need in Britain at the moment, and the 50% requirement will make it harder for the few left-wingers who've managed to break the mould. 
2) it's a self-serving option accepted by the Lib Dems because they'll do the best out of it
3) it's all Clegg's got to show for his disastrous coalition agreement; if this fails Lib Dems will have got nothing in turn for propping up an extreme-right government that's alienated nearly every left-winger who voted for them, and will be less resolute in sticking with the coalition once we hit the 'summer of discontent'.
4) it'll feel so good to give Clegg/the traitorous Lib Dems a kicking.

My feelings exactly.

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Angus Reid (joke pollster)
Yes - 32% (-3)
No - 26% (+5)
DK - 35% (-2)

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I just wish the Yes camp would drop this myth that AV is somehow more proportional.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8506306.stm - Those results are way more proportional.

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I just wish the Yes camp would drop this myth that AV is somehow more proportional.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8506306.stm - Those results are way more proportional.

The problem is both sides tend to be peddling half-truths. I can't back AV because it's not proportional; if it's not STV on the table, I'll stick with FPTP where 'winner takes all' at least makes a resemblence of sense.

Exactly my point. FPTP just makes the most sense really, if we're going to stay un-proportional.

Although, if MMP is good enough for Scotland and Wales, and has produced quite stable governments in both assemblies, why isn't it good enough for the rest of the UK? It's been shown to work. AV is unproven (on an national level, before someone says "Oh, but it's used for leadership elections!").

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Absolutely. But Labour shouldn't have a tiny amount of seats on that percentage, which is what AV could ensure.

We can't know for sure, but I really doubt AV would make that much difference.  Transfers won't be that predictable, and a lot of people (and I'd think this would include a lot of people who vote for the likes of the BNP) won't transfer to either Labour or the Tories.

Note that a poll last July actually showed slightly more second preferences from "Others" going to Labour than the Tories, and the Tories only slightly ahead on second preferences from the Lib Dems.

I accept they won't all bother to preference, but judging how hysterical BNP/UKIP types get about the thought of another Labour government, I think the vast majority could be persuaded to keep Labour out (I'm sure UKIP will be advising its voters to preference Tory - not that they'd need to, with most coming straight from there).

As for the poll, it's a bit outdated. The Lib Dem vote that existed back then, at the dizzy heights of 18% was much more balanced, but nearly all of those left-leaning Liberals have left by now. Yougov's Monday poll helps demonstrate the Tory/Labour-leaner ratio of the current Lib Dem voter by asking a straight choice between Labour or Tory: only 13% of the remaining Liberals opted for Labour, whilst 52% chose Tory (the rest D/K).
 

Gotta link to the Monday poll? Did it ask about which parties that voters would preference?

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So basically, with others considered, Labour'd be ahead about 52-48 on the 2-party preferred vote.

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Show your working?

This poll is pretty weird in that it records 2% for Others, when it's rare to even register 1%.  It's difficult to work out where the Others split.

From a 42-36-9 FPTP result

9% Lib Support, so:

If 53% go Tory = 40.77% 2pp
13% go Labour = 43.17% 2pp

Assuming the 13% for "others" from the FPTP splits evenly, with a tiny Tory advantage (UKIP, BNP etc), you get about a 3-4% gap.

I'm not a mathematician, and it was only a rough calculation.

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A splinter group of no2av has formed called No2AV-Yes2PR, leading with the endorsment of David Owen.

http://www.no2av-yes2pr.org/

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If this referendum fails, electoral reform is dead in UK for the next 50 years at least.

Same for if it passes. Labour/Tory/(Today's) Liberals aren't supportive of PR, so none of them will give us it in government.

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It seems to me that you're all essentially arguing either in favour of the Australian senate model or the Australian House of Reps model. I spot a solution.

If only we had an upper house like Australia, actually elected... but you can keep Tone and Jules.

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Labour launch their 'no' campaign. Ed, once again, doesn't have the support of the PLP.

Labour launch their 'yes' campaign.

Crick on Miliband's refusal to share a platform with Clegg

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This has been talked up quite a bit, but what would a 'No' vote, coupled with inevitably horrific local results actually do to Clegg's position as Leader/Deputy PM and the Liberals' position in the government?

I could see it being the start of serious calls for Clegg's head, concluding with a leadership challenge at conference, but I can also see it as just more water of a duck's back to the LDs.

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In my opinion, this can be a great moment to Green Party take a leadership spot. Greens can inherit many LD-left-wing votes and nuclear crisis give a moment. Caroline Lucas would be a better leader for Yes-side than Milliband or a LibDem.

The minor parties find it difficult to keep their head above water. They don't attract any media attention unless they do something seriously controversial (i.e. Nick Griffin and the BNP). I do think the Greens have a massive opportunity to gain a bit more grounding the disillusioned left-wing youth and if Labour end up in coalition with them in Scotland, they'd be a bit more noticeable. Alas, they'll never do well under non-PR systems like FPTP and AV

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It's unbelievable how much of a crap, the country doesn't give.

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It's unbelievable how much of a crap, the country doesn't give.

Not really. We are in an economic slump, we have mass unemployment, the government is making large cuts to services (whether directly or indirectly) and is proposing/implementing troubling changes to various public institutions. Given that, why should it be surprising that most people don't care about a referendum on a technical issue?

No, I understand that. I meant more of how little coverage there's been on the referendum.

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I got the electoral commission information booklet today. I see it is on optional preferencing, so "an election can be won under the 'alternative vote' system with less than half the total votes cast", which really defeats the point. Now I really don't see the point in the referendum. I also see that we only use AV if the next election happens after the boundary review in 2013, so if there's an election in the next two years, it'd be under FPTP even with a Yes vote.

AV is such an awful system, the only thing actually worse than FPTP.

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I got the electoral commission information booklet today. I see it is on optional preferencing, so "an election can be won under the 'alternative vote' system with less than half the total votes cast", which really defeats the point.

Uh, so having to decide on the order of 7th to 31st preference for joke independents is the point now? Or is it to have more invalid ballots?

Yeah, but it still means that candidates can win with under 50%, so it really defeats the whole arguement for AV.

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I do think that AV might not be as good for the British left as it might seem - it seems likely to me that Labour voters would be far less likely to give more than one preference than voters of any other party, and also that those who would give more than one preference would be likely to do silly things like preffing Tories over Whigs out of spite.

It's not good. Liberals will preference Tory and Tory will preference Liberals while some Labour supporters will pref the Liberals, a favour which wouldn't be returned.

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I do think that AV might not be as good for the British left as it might seem - it seems likely to me that Labour voters would be far less likely to give more than one preference than voters of any other party, and also that those who would give more than one preference would be likely to do silly things like preffing Tories over Whigs out of spite.

It's not good. Liberals will preference Tory and Tory will preference Liberals while some Labour supporters will pref the Liberals, a favour which wouldn't be returned.

Well, in normal circumstances it's probably a favor that would be returned, although nowadays the Whigs have pretty much been reduced to their right wing and their "ancestral" voters, both of whom would likely favor the Tories, albeit for different reasons.  Part of the thing is the insanely tribalistic nature of British politics - in most countries people dislike or are indifferent to the opposing parties, in Britain people hate them.

True, true. I doubt you'd find many "Les hommes du PS, jusqu'aux bouts des ongles" in France, for example as you would "Labour men, through and through."

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most people

Careful.

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZwOrySIIeY

New campaign ad from the No camp. I love how this is more or less what happened when my politics teacher first explained AV to my class.

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Would people vote for something they didn't understand though?