One Hell of a Decade-a political TL

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

For the Democrats, I'd want Kaine or Casey. For the Republicans, I'd accept Pawlenty or Jindal, though I've already seen the 2016 GOP ticket.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Jindal of course was ecstatic, but Cuomo was more cautiously optimistic.
He was at the top, sure, but barely outside the margin of error.
He needed to step up his game, especially in the Midwest and Southwest,
if he wanted to secure the presidency. Kaine, on the other hand,
felt that he could take either Iowa or New Hampshire-didn't matter
which-and sweep South Carolina for a comeback.



Governor Kaine hosts a rally in San Diego, March 12th.



Governor Cuomo in Baltimore, April 7th.



Senator Casey interviewed in Cleveland, April 3rd.



Senator Merkley speaks with reporters after meeting supporters in
Milwaukee, March 25th.



Governor Jindal in Houston, April 4th.



Senator Hoeven rallies supporters in Portsmouth, April 7th.



Senator Thune in Des Moines, March 19th.


Governor Pawlenty in Columbia, March 8th.

The field continued to open up among both parties. It was still early
on, and several newcomers hoped to at least get some recognition.
The first for the Republicans was Congressman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin.
A noted fiscal hawk and creator of the Roadmap for America, he gained
some attention for his Senate bid in 2012, eventually losing to Russ Feingold.



Another new Republican candidate was Pennsylvania governor
Tom Corbett. Managing to take advantage of the economic
recovery, he had been narrowly reelected in 2014 and was,
like Thune and Pawlenty, hoping to run as the "average"
conservative. Polls had him losing in every state, including
Pennsylvania, where Pawlenty was still ahead.


Corbett wasn't the only Pennsylvanian Republican running
for the Oval Office. Rick Santorum, former senator who had
twice been defeated by incumbent senator and 2016
presidential candidate Bob Casey, decided to jump into
the race, hoping that he could take a dark horse candidacy
by gaining support from the religious right and from the
now-dying Tea Party.



A newcomer on the scene for the Democrats was former
Maryland governor Martin O' Malley. However, few expected
his campaign to go far, with policies similar to those of Tim
Kaine and hailing from the same region of the country.
Still, he was useful for the Cuomo campaign as a potential
vote-splitter for the DLC camp. Many wondered if he was
actually running for enough attention to warrant a VP selection.



A rather unpopular figure among the Democrats would also be
running-West Virginia Senator and former Governor Joe Manchin.
Though pro-labor, he was relatively socially conservative and,
like most West Virginians, a staunch opponent of cap-and-trade.
Still, he found support among more populist coal miners in
Appalachian states, as well as Blue Dog Democrats in the
South.

[Progressive]

This is "one hell of a " great TL! Keep it up

[feeblepizza]

This is "one hell of a " great TL! Keep it up

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

This is "one hell of a " great TL! Keep it up

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

The first Democratic debates were held on May 8th at the University of
Iowa. With numerous candidates representing every wing of the party,
the expectation was for fur to fly-and it delivered. Many wondered
if this really was between Cuomo and Kaine or if anyone on the stage was
a potential dark horse.

Notable excerpts included:

"Mr. Kaine, with all due respect, how can you support NAFTA in its
present state? We've seen the effects for the last 25 years-hard-
working Americans losing their jobs because the big wigs think
that Chinese jobs are cheaper, Mexico losing stability and collapsing
with massive emigration rates and entire towns run by drug lords.
That's the cost of free trade, sir."

-Senator Bob Casey



"Let's get this straight: I want to protect the environment. I'm
worried about global warming. But I simply cannot support
cap and trade. There's a reason for that old ad of me shooting
the bill: It's bad for the millions of families in West Virginia and
Kentucky and Pennsylvania and everywhere else that rely on
coal to simply power their homes."

-Joe Manchin





"Senator Casey, I too am a Catholic, and like you I believe that
abortion is wrong. But we've seen what happens when we allow
states to ban it, and for that reason I don't let my personal
beliefs interfere with what I know is best for women."

-Andrew Cuomo


"I am simply the best perso...ca-candidate for this race. My
opponent started the recession, and I must fix it. I have-I
have the solutions, plain and eas...simple. Jim DeMint started
the recession."

-Perennial candidate Alvin Greene



Kaine's mediocre performance in the debate, especially with smack
downs from Casey and Merkley, meant that he needed something big
to save his campaign. That came in the form of a key endorsement from
former President Bill Clinton. Like Kaine, Clinton was a social moderate
and part of the New Democratic wing of the party, a supporter of
free trade as opposed to Casey and Merkley's fair trade beliefs.





CNN Polling: Who do you support for the Democratic presidential nomination?

Andrew Cuomo-27%
Tim Kaine, 26%
Bob Casey-20%
Jeff Merkley-16%
Joe Manchin-4%
Martin O'Malley-2%
Other-5%

The Republican debates were a week later. Unlike the Democratic
debates, there was, at least for now, a clear front runner and a clear
winner of the debate-Bobby Jindal. He had a natural advantage from
his propulsion to the national stage as Romney's VP nominee and the
keynote address for that year's convention. And in the debates, he
used his charm to his advantage, including hammering the gubernatorial
record of Pawlenty while invoking his own record.



But Bobby wasn't the only over-performer. John Hoeven, surprisingly,
was seeming more and more like a dark horse. Though rather moderate
and referred to by Rick Santorum in the debate as a "RINO", he had
a strong gubernatorial record and was popular even among Democrats.
His only problem, according to his campaign staff, was that he needed
to become a household name. A strong performance meant that
Hoeven was now leading Pawlenty in the polling, behind only Jindal.



FRONT-RUNNER SHOWDOWN (Gallup): If the election were held today and it was between Andrew Cuomo and Bobby Jindal, who would you vote for?

Andrew Cuomo, 42%
Bobby Jindal, 37%
Undecided, 22%

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Great Update! Right now I'm hoping Manchin or Casey can win the Dem nod.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

(Sorry for the delay. It's all on AH.com if you want to read ahead.)

The issue of the economy would once again be a focal point of the
campaign, but in a different way. By 2013, most economists agreed
that the economic crisis was more or less over. By now, unemployment
was at 5.3% and steadily decreasing. But another issue loomed; trade.
Now that the recession was over, the fight was over who could maintain
the improving economy, sparking the long-overdue debate between
fair trade and free trade. All the Republicans, unsurprisingly, were
relatively pro free-trade, though Pawlenty and Hoeven less so than
Thune, Santorum, and especially Jindal and Corbett. On the Democratic
side, Casey and Merkley were the main fair-traders. Cuomo walked the
line, while Kaine, O'Malley, and Manchin were supporters of free trade.

PPP survey: In general, which party would you trust more in handling
the economy?

Democratic-46%
Republican-41%
Neither/Other/Undecided-13%

Though the Iraq and Afghan wars had mostly ended, and Korea was
over for sure, foreign crises still loomed. For several years, despite
support from the US and more recently limited drone strikes, Somalia
and Yemen were both growing increasingly unstable. In particular,
Somalia had split into several unrecognized but de facto independent
states. The most stable of these was the partially democratic
republic of Somaliland, which after 3-way clashes with the UN-supported
government and Islamist groups (including Al-Qaeda) had more or less
adopted the borders of the old British Somaliland. Currently, it was
only recognized by Ethiopia and the UK.



Yemen had some similar problems, but the government was receiving
greater US support and had confined the warlord states to the more
sparsely populated areas; all major cities, as well as most roads and
oil fields, were under government control.



Both nations had serious problems with piracy. The Gulf of Aden
was arguably the most dangerous patch of sea in the world, and
despite nearly every country having at least some military engagements
with Yemeni and especially Somali pirates, the problem was as
great as ever.



The catalyst for the Somali War came from what was known as the
Camp Lemonnier incident. On October 19th, a loose group of
Somali Islamist insurgents had traveled through Somaliland, which
failed to detect the insurgents. Heavily armed, the perpetrators
launched an assault on the U.S. base in Djibouti. In the shootout,
3 American soldiers and 13 of the 27 insurgents were killed; all the
other Somali rebels were captured, and most were wounded.

The reaction was swift. Immediately, an emergency session of the
United Nations approved US intervention in Somalia in an attempt to
take down the Islamist-controlled portions of the country once and
for all. In addition to the United States, Ethiopia, Djibouti, South
Sudan, several European nations, and Kenya agreed to participate.
Somaliland agreed to send forces in exchange for recognition by the
United States. The star-spangled banner would be on the battlefield
once again.


The new Somali war was just starting to take shape. Under US pressure,
Puntland agreed to join the Somali government in taking out Islamists in
the South while the US would leave the Somali states to work out an
agreement after the war's end. Somaliland, on the other hand, had now
been recognized by several nations, and now seemed likely to gain UN
recognition within a few years.

Surprisingly, the new war had little effect on the ongoing presidential
campaign. All candidates were united in support of the new conflict,
though the effect of rallying around the president arguably helped the
Democrats more than it helped the Republicans. Meanwhile, a recent PPP
poll had Governor Kaine ahead of Cuomo for the first time in the campaign.
Many attributed it to Kaine spending more time in the south, evidently
to rally Southern Democrats onto his campaign. It was working; he was
winning South Carolina and was tied with Cuomo in Florida. A few even
wondered if New Hampshire, once a safe state for Andrew Cuomo, was
in play.


Senator Mark Warner (D-VA) campaigns with Kaine. Having beaten
former Governor Bob McDonnell in 2014, Mark Warner pondered a
presidential bid until Kaine announced his; soon, Warner was a
supporter of the Kaine campaign.

Possibly due to lessons learned from Iraq and Afghanistan and possibly due
to a multi-sided attack (US, European, and Somali forces from the north,
Ethiopian forces from the west, Kenyans from the southwest), the Somali
War seemed to be going better than the two previous Middle Eastern
wars. On the other hand, US forces had not reached Mogadishu, which
was under siege from the Islamists in the south. Some worried that
the capital would fall before it was reached by the Americans.



Meanwhile, the gubernatorial elections in 2015 showed little; the
Republicans held Mississippi and picked up Kentucky, the Democrats
Louisiana.

GUBERNATORIAL ELECTIONS, 2015:

Democrats: 26 (0)
Republicans: 23 (0)

Kentucky:

David Williams-53.3%
Jack Conway-45.9%

Louisiana:

Mitch Landrieu-49.4%
Steve Scalise-46.3%

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Up next are the actual primaries.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

After a grueling day, the results in Iowa brought two candidates to the
spotlight. Jindal was well-known and expected to win the caucuses, but
Casey, generally at a consistent third in polling, has been seen by many
as a dark horse representing the blue-collar wing of the party. Tim Kaine
got second place, denting his campaign strategy, while Cuomo pulled out
of Iowa in November to focus more on states which he felt were more
winnable. Martin O'Malley had left the race in September with an
endorsement of Kaine.

DEMOCRATIC IOWA CAUCUSES:

Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA)-31.7%
Gov. Tim Kaine (D-VA)-25.4%
Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-IA)-19.1%
Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR)-14.1%
Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV)-6.3%
Gov. Jack Markell (D-DE)-3.4%



The Republican Iowa caucus was less exciting; Jindal won decisively, while
his main opponents, Hoeven and Pawlenty, pulled back to fight him in
New Hampshire.


The Somali War raged on. The biggest defeat so far was the fall
of Mogadishu and with it the Somali federal government. The US planned
to use its backup; recognize Puntland as the legitimate Somali
government and continue to crush Islamist forces in battle after battle,
as the UN armies pushed south.

Cuomo's gamble of falling back from Iowa worked; by the end of the night,
it had been projected that the New York governor had won in the state's
primary, narrowly beating Governor Kaine, with Merkley in third and
Casey in fourth, the latter having barely contested the state. The
Kaine campaign had put a focus on both Iowa and New Hampshire; both
had been lost. But a comeback was still possible; he was ahead in Nevada
and South Carolina while Florida was a toss-up between him and Cuomo.
After failures in the two states he needed to win, Senator Manchin
dropped out of the race as well, endorsing fellow moderate Tim Kaine.

DEMOCRATIC NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY:

Andrew Cuomo-35.5%
Tim Kaine-32.3%
Jeff Merkley-16.9%
Bob Casey-12.6%
Joe Manchin-2.7%



Governor Cuomo gives his New Hampshire victory speech from Concord.

The Republican New Hampshire primary was a bit of a disappointment for
the presumed frontrunner, Bobby Jindal. Though polls showed that it was
a three-way toss-up between the big 3, it eventually pulled out for
Hoeven, who ran on a strong gubernatorial record and his senate reputation
as a bipartisan legislator, strongly appealing to moderates in the party.

REPUBLICAN NEW HAMPSHIRE CAUCUSES:

John Hoeven-32.4%
Bobby Jindal-26.2%
Tim Pawlenty-18.5%
John Thune-11.5%
Gary Johnson-11.4%

(note: Corbett, Ryan, and Santorum dropped out after Iowa and all endorsed Jindal)

On the other side of the world, the war in Somalia raged on. However,
UN forces continued to smash forward, retaking Mogadishu by the end
of February. Resistance continued, especially in southern Somalia, but it
had been driven underground, and without distractions, was falling more
quickly than in Iraq or Afghanistan. Still, the US would probably remain
in the country to mop up resistance for at least a few months.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Yes! Casey and Jindal win Iowa!