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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Arkansas  (Read 10496 times)
krazen1211
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« Reply #25 on: March 20, 2011, 02:33:46 pm »
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AR-1: 728637
AR-2: 729800
AR-3: 729607
AR-4: 727874


Deviation of less than 2000, and no county splits. If only the GOP there got its act together, the writing is on the wall here.

I'm guessing on this map, Ross could hold the green district for 1 cycle, and it would go back GOP when he leaves. Griffin is just completely hosed in the red district.
« Last Edit: March 20, 2011, 02:41:34 pm by krazen1211 »Logged
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« Reply #26 on: March 20, 2011, 02:36:29 pm »
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Conceding one in the hopes of holding the other three throughout, without giving up the rocksolid northwestern seat. And not an unreasonable map, either.
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« Reply #27 on: March 20, 2011, 05:26:59 pm »
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Conceding one in the hopes of holding the other three throughout, without giving up the rocksolid northwestern seat. And not an unreasonable map, either.

Yep. It's not a horrid map for the GOP (although they're trying to push for a 4-0 map, like the current one. Ross' district is going Republican when he leaves).

It's hard to see how the Democrats draw a 2-2 map without mashing counties, which is probably where the Fayetteville to the 4th plan comes in. That plan tendrils in the City of Fayetteville into the green district, and ends up connecting Fayetteville and Pine Bluff and Chicot County in the opposite corner of the state.

As it stands, this 4 corners map happens to dump all the Democrats into the red district. The question is whether Arkansas is going the way of South Carolina, Alabama, Georgia, Lousiana, and the rest of the South, and when.
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« Reply #28 on: March 20, 2011, 07:57:06 pm »
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If you're going to go for a 3-1 map, why screw over a GOP incumbent? Why not bring the Little Rock district west instead and put the Dems in Ross's district? Ross isn't even 50 yet, and a map like yours could dissuade him from a gubernatorial bid if he feels he's the only one who could hold the district.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #29 on: March 20, 2011, 09:02:11 pm »
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If you're going to go for a 3-1 map, why screw over a GOP incumbent? Why not bring the Little Rock district west instead and put the Dems in Ross's district? Ross isn't even 50 yet, and a map like yours could dissuade him from a gubernatorial bid if he feels he's the only one who could hold the district.

Well, the Democrats control redistricting here, so any GOP plan is unlikely to pass. But if you're the Democrats:

1. The above map gets rid of a Republican incumbent, which will make Pryor very happy.
2. The above map guarantees you 1 seat even if Barack Obama shellacks your state party just as he did in Louisiana.
3. The above map gives you 2-2 as long as you can convince Ross to stay.
4. The above map makes the NAACP happy.
5. The above map looks clean and adheres to traditional principles there.


The GOP would keep Pulaski, Jefferson, and the Delta in 3 different districts and maintain R+8 or higher in all 4 districts. The Democrats, well, they don't seem to know what they want to do at this point.

Pulaski is the largest county and the state and its heavily Democratic (for Arkansas). In the long term, the GOP would want it in the Democratic vote dump. That red district is 53% Obama. Ross lives in the southwestern corner of the state and its really inconvenient to put him in with the Delta anyway.
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« Reply #30 on: March 20, 2011, 10:12:41 pm »
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Oh yeah, that's right. I forgot there was still a place where Democrats control redistricting. In that case, your map does seem sensible from the Democrats' perspective. Whether or not Ross stays in the House is irrelevant since the best the Democrats can do without him is 3-1 anyway.
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« Reply #31 on: March 21, 2011, 12:32:56 am »
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Funny thing is, Dems are going to think something like the current map gives them a chance to get back to 3-1, possibly, under the right conditions. They didn't really do worse in Arkansas in 2010 than in 1994, after all. While Reps are going to think something like the current map gives them a chance to go 4-0 and be like other Southern state parties.
This map makes the most sense from a bipartisan POV.
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« Reply #32 on: March 22, 2011, 09:07:04 pm »
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I created this map for 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans. I actually submitted this plan to the AR redistricting website.



Blue- Mike Ross (D) Ross trades most of his western territory for nearly the entire delta region. I had to make this district winnable for a Democrat in the future when Ross moves onto bigger things.

Green- Bill Halter (D) I designed this district so that former Lt. Governor Bill Halter could make a political comeback; he would likely defeat incumbent Tim Griffin in this district. Really, any Democrat could win here; this new district would actually have gone for Kerry over Bush. Its anchored in Little Rock and Pine Bluff.

Purple- Steve Womack (R) The third district is reconfigured so that it encompasses nearly the entire northern border. Its population base is still in Benton and Washington counties. Womack is still quite safe.

Red- Open Seat. Under this plan, Rep. Rick Crawford would live in Mike Rossí district, thus this seat is open. Basically, I made this out of the counties I had left over from the other districts. It contains mostly rural central and western counties. Likely Republican.
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« Reply #33 on: March 23, 2011, 09:17:07 am »
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I created this map for 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans. I actually submitted this plan to the AR redistricting website.



Blue- Mike Ross (D) Ross trades most of his western territory for nearly the entire delta region. I had to make this district winnable for a Democrat in the future when Ross moves onto bigger things.

Green- Bill Halter (D) I designed this district so that former Lt. Governor Bill Halter could make a political comeback; he would likely defeat incumbent Tim Griffin in this district. Really, any Democrat could win here; this new district would actually have gone for Kerry over Bush. Its anchored in Little Rock and Pine Bluff.

Purple- Steve Womack (R) The third district is reconfigured so that it encompasses nearly the entire northern border. Its population base is still in Benton and Washington counties. Womack is still quite safe.

Red- Open Seat. Under this plan, Rep. Rick Crawford would live in Mike Rossí district, thus this seat is open. Basically, I made this out of the counties I had left over from the other districts. It contains mostly rural central and western counties. Likely Republican.

What is the PVI on that blue district? It looks lost, anyway, once Ross leaves.
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« Reply #34 on: March 23, 2011, 03:03:06 pm »
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I created this map for 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans. I actually submitted this plan to the AR redistricting website.



Blue- Mike Ross (D) Ross trades most of his western territory for nearly the entire delta region. I had to make this district winnable for a Democrat in the future when Ross moves onto bigger things.

Green- Bill Halter (D) I designed this district so that former Lt. Governor Bill Halter could make a political comeback; he would likely defeat incumbent Tim Griffin in this district. Really, any Democrat could win here; this new district would actually have gone for Kerry over Bush. Its anchored in Little Rock and Pine Bluff.

Purple- Steve Womack (R) The third district is reconfigured so that it encompasses nearly the entire northern border. Its population base is still in Benton and Washington counties. Womack is still quite safe.

Red- Open Seat. Under this plan, Rep. Rick Crawford would live in Mike Rossí district, thus this seat is open. Basically, I made this out of the counties I had left over from the other districts. It contains mostly rural central and western counties. Likely Republican.

What is the PVI on that blue district? It looks lost, anyway, once Ross leaves.

By my calculations, it's about an R+5, and trending hard toward the GOP.  In Arkansas, that's as close to a 2-2 map as you're going to get- the district was won by Gore and only narrowly lost by Kerry (margin of 1,454).
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« Reply #35 on: March 23, 2011, 03:15:30 pm »
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I think it's premature to talk about districts in Arkansas trending hard toward the GOP given that if Hillary Clinton had been the nominee, she'd have won handily. 
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« Reply #36 on: March 23, 2011, 04:38:32 pm »
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I created this map for 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans. I actually submitted this plan to the AR redistricting website.



Blue- Mike Ross (D) Ross trades most of his western territory for nearly the entire delta region. I had to make this district winnable for a Democrat in the future when Ross moves onto bigger things.

Green- Bill Halter (D) I designed this district so that former Lt. Governor Bill Halter could make a political comeback; he would likely defeat incumbent Tim Griffin in this district. Really, any Democrat could win here; this new district would actually have gone for Kerry over Bush. Its anchored in Little Rock and Pine Bluff.

Purple- Steve Womack (R) The third district is reconfigured so that it encompasses nearly the entire northern border. Its population base is still in Benton and Washington counties. Womack is still quite safe.

Red- Open Seat. Under this plan, Rep. Rick Crawford would live in Mike Rossí district, thus this seat is open. Basically, I made this out of the counties I had left over from the other districts. It contains mostly rural central and western counties. Likely Republican.

What is the PVI on that blue district? It looks lost, anyway, once Ross leaves.

By my calculations, it's about an R+5, and trending hard toward the GOP.  In Arkansas, that's as close to a 2-2 map as you're going to get- the district was won by Gore and only narrowly lost by Kerry (margin of 1,454).

Thats right, the blue district is down to R+5 from R+7. Bush would have carried it by less than 2500 votes.

Here are the district PVI's based on the 2004 election only (2008 skewed the data way towards the GOP):

CD1 (Red): R+10
CD2 (Green): D+4
CD3 (Purple): R+12
CD4 (Blue): EVEN

Both the CD1 and CD3 would be off limits for the Dems. They should have no problem winning the Pulaski-based district. I'm pretty sure a white Democrat would hold CD4 after Ross moves on.
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« Reply #37 on: March 23, 2011, 04:44:03 pm »
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What is the timeframe for Ross moving on up? Is he going to try to run for Governor when Beebe's term ends?
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krazen1211
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« Reply #38 on: March 23, 2011, 05:06:40 pm »
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Thats right, the blue district is down to R+5 from R+7. Bush would have carried it by less than 2500 votes.

Here are the district PVI's based on the 2004 election only (2008 skewed the data way towards the GOP):

CD1 (Red): R+10
CD2 (Green): D+4
CD3 (Purple): R+12
CD4 (Blue): EVEN

Both the CD1 and CD3 would be off limits for the Dems. They should have no problem winning the Pulaski-based district. I'm pretty sure a white Democrat would hold CD4 after Ross moves on.


They would have a decent shot for sure. But the current CD-2 was 51% Bush and of course went Republican when it became vacant. The current CD-4 was also 51% Bush and Ross has conceded that he'll be the last Democrat to hold it.

Obviously, though, its the best you can do.

Edit. They just unveiled the Dem plan.

« Last Edit: March 23, 2011, 05:36:42 pm by krazen1211 »Logged
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« Reply #39 on: March 23, 2011, 05:51:24 pm »
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Yikes...thats gonna be a tough sell. Surely, they can do better...

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« Reply #40 on: March 23, 2011, 06:13:03 pm »
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How Republican is the AR-3 in that map since they took most of the Dem areas out of it and put them in Ross's district?
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krazen1211
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« Reply #41 on: March 23, 2011, 06:17:37 pm »
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How Republican is the AR-3 in that map since they took most of the Dem areas out of it and put them in Ross's district?

68% McCain or so.
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« Reply #42 on: March 23, 2011, 06:17:48 pm »
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I thought that no county splits were allowed.
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« Reply #43 on: March 23, 2011, 06:19:47 pm »
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How much more Dem does AR-1 become?

County splits are allowed, I think--it's just tradition that they haven't done so.
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« Reply #44 on: March 23, 2011, 06:24:46 pm »
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County splits are allowed, I think--it's just tradition that they haven't done so.
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« Reply #45 on: March 23, 2011, 06:36:57 pm »
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Looks like they're shooting for another 3-1 Dem map.  No other reason to keep Little Rock in with all its heavily Republican Suburbs like that when it could easily be added to the 1st to swing it towards the Democrats more.

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« Reply #46 on: March 23, 2011, 07:02:03 pm »
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How much more Dem does AR-1 become?

I'd say only slightly more Democratic.

The only conservative county that it takes in is Van Buren from CD2. Otherwise, it adds Desha, Chicot, Drew and most of Lincoln, all of which are fairly liberal.

Its new PVI would probably be about R+6, down from R+8. Still, Causey would be very competitive with Crawford in a rematch.

Looks like they're shooting for another 3-1 Dem map.  No other reason to keep Little Rock in with all its heavily Republican Suburbs like that when it could easily be added to the 1st to swing it towards the Democrats more.

A 3-1 Democratic plan could end up as a huge dummymander. They'd be better off making 2 Dem districts and conceding the other 2.

Under this plan, here is what would need to happen for a 3-1 D delegation:

-If Ross leaves at some point, they could draft Dustin McDaniel (who lives in  Fayettville); he could hold this district

-Causey would need to defeat Crawford; actually in neutral year, this would be a true tossup

-Bill Halter, or some other top-tier Democratic state legislator, would need to take out Griffin
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« Reply #47 on: March 23, 2011, 08:25:09 pm »
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I think 2-2 should have been the target as well, but it shouldn't surprise me that they would push limits here.

Shane Broadway could probably defeat Griffin in that AR-2, he lost the Lt. Governor race in '10, but won Saline County, where he's reasonably popular. If Democrats could squeeze out good turnout in the Delta counties, a Democrat could win AR-1.
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« Reply #48 on: March 23, 2011, 08:43:00 pm »
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How much more Dem does AR-1 become?

Putting aside the northwestern shenanigans, they moved all of five counties around: Chicot, Desha, Drew, and Lincoln (well, almost all of Lincoln) got moved from AR-04 to AR-01, and Van Buren got moved from AR-02 to AR-01. Those counties, total, voted for McCain by a 53.5 to 43.7 margin, but it's all of 27,605 votes. It moves the district from 58.7 - 38.4 McCain to 58.2 - 38.9 McCain. A whole one-percent shift.

AR-02 loses one county and goes from 54.0 - 44.1 McCain to 53.8 - 44.3 McCain.

Without the Fayetteville numbers (I understand it went for Obama), AR-04 goes from 58.1 - 39.3 McCain to 59.1 - 38.3 McCain.

Arkansas Democrats are either really confident that 2010 was a hiccup, or just really stupid.
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« Reply #49 on: March 23, 2011, 09:49:09 pm »
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Arkansas Democrats are either really confident that 2010 was a hiccup, or just really stupid.

Over the last 15 years, stupidity has been pretty much the province of the Arkansas Republican party.  Maybe the Dems want to get in on the action.

I don't really get this.  With Obama on the top of the ticket in 2012, it's not like things are going to really get much better downballot.  It's certainly going to scare away all the decent candidates from running in these types of districts in the 2012.  And if he wins in 2012, then you have him up there again in 2014 to foil all plans.  Not to mention if Ross decides to not run again in either of those two supposed cycles - you could easily get 4-0.  Color me confused.
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