US House Redistricting: Arkansas

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Lol, someone is wishing they had done a better job at recruiting candidates, especially for state senate. If they would have seriously contested more, they might have flipped atleast one of the chambers.

[t_host1]

No offense, but you're numbers are way off.

I started to do your plan and the 3rd district has 75000 extra people!

Have you tried Dave's Redistricting App?

http://www.gardow.com/davebradlee/redistricting/launchapp.html

None taken

It's a logistics - 2 situations with 1 solution I was thinking of.

Thanks for the referral

[Frodo]

Is it safe to say Republicans are screwed in Arkansas for another decade?

[Miles]

Is it safe to say Republicans are screwed in Arkansas for another decade?

From the looks of things, quite the contrary.

[DrScholl]

Democrats do benefit from the Arkansas GOP being more than a bit unorganized, which is why the legislature stayed in Democratic hands, many Dem seats were uncontested.

The plan was amended earlier today that exchanged some territory between districts, but not anything did much politically.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Is it safe to say Republicans are screwed in Arkansas for another decade?

Not at all. They could easily have all 4 seats post-Ross, not to mention winning the legislature(depending on the gerrymandering done there of course).

[Horus]

Is it safe to say Republicans are screwed in Arkansas for another decade?

No, this map seems to almost maintain the status quo, actually. Once Ross loses or retires it will probably be 4R 0D. Fine by me, the fewer blue dogs, the better.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Is it safe to say Republicans are screwed in Arkansas for another decade?

No, this map seems to almost maintain the status quo, actually. Once Ross loses or retires it will probably be 4R 0D. Fine by me, the fewer blue dogs, the better.

Look, I am no fan of most of the blue dogs, but this is the same type of thinking that has cost Republicans a number of seats over the past few election cycles ("who cares if a Democrat wins, at least it's one less "RINO").  The 2010 Delaware Senate race is a prime example of this (and it would've probably cost Republicans even more seats in 2010 had it been a normal year).  I have no problem with primarying blue-dogs in areas where a more liberal Democrat could just as easily keep the seat/district in Democratic hands.  However, there are places (such as Ross' district) where the only choices are either a blue-dog or a right-wing Republican.  The blue-dog may be a pain in the rear sometimes, and he/she may only vote with his/her party some of the time, but I can promise you that the Republican (especially one from a district like AR-4) will NEVER vote with the Democrats on important issues (and often not minor ones). 

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Is it safe to say Republicans are screwed in Arkansas for another decade?

No, this map seems to almost maintain the status quo, actually. Once Ross loses or retires it will probably be 4R 0D. Fine by me, the fewer blue dogs, the better.

Look, I am no fan of most of the blue dogs, but this is the same type of thinking that has cost Republicans a number of seats over the past few election cycles ("who cares if a Democrat wins, at least it's one less "RINO").  The 2010 Delaware Senate race is a prime example of this (and it would've probably cost Republicans even more seats in 2010 had it been a normal year).  I have no problem with primarying blue-dogs in areas where a more liberal Democrat could just as easily keep the seat/district in Democratic hands.  However, there are places (such as Ross' district) where the only choices are either a blue-dog or a right-wing Republican.  The blue-dog may be a pain in the rear sometimes, and he/she may only vote with his/her party some of the time, but I can promise you that the Republican (especially one from a district like AR-4) will NEVER vote with the Democrats on important issues (and often not minor ones). 

Agreed. It's far better to have a majority with a few moderates than a perpetual minority with an "ideologically pure" party. People like Nancy Pelosi didn't win the House for the Democrats in 2006, people like Heath Shuler did. You would do well to remember that.

[Miles]

This is the "modified" version of the 'Fayettville to the Fourth' plan that they've come up with.

...And I thought it couldn't get much worse than the original....Silly me!

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Arkansas Democrats are either politically retarded or letting their racism get in the way of smart politics. I'm not sure which.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This is the "modified" version of the 'Fayettville to the Fourth' plan that they've come up with.

...And I thought it couldn't get much worse than the original....Silly me!

I don't suppose there is any chance of Beebe vetoing that monstrosity, is there?

[DrScholl]

Some Democrats don't like it, particularly ones from Fayetteville, so votes in the state senate might not be there for it to pass.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Another day, another crappy map from the Arkansas Democrats.

[krazen1211]

Yeah, that's a 4-0 map. Thanks, Arkansas.

[DrScholl]

It's basically close to what the map is now and it really depends on who the Democratic candidates will be in AR-1 and AR-2, local connections still count for a lot in Arkansas.

[edtorres04]

Has Pine Bluff been moved to Crawford's district?  If so, it weakens him a bit.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The crappy map passed the Senate with more support from Republicans than from Democrats.

[muon2]

The crappy map passed the Senate with more support from Republicans than from Democrats.

Well at least this map only splits two counties. I'd have liked them to continue to split none, but that doesn't seem to be popular on either side of the aisle.

[Sam Spade]

Arkansas Dems must really believe Obama won't be re-elected in 2012.  They may be right, but if they're not.

[Nichlemn]

There's a possibility that many AR Dems were aware their map wasn't the best for the party, but voted for a map which placed them in a Congressional District they might be competitive in, rather than having two packed GOP seats.

[Miles]

The bottom line is if they shoot for a 3-1 D delegation, they will likely end up with a 4-0 R delegation after Ross.

With the Fayettville to the Fourth plan, at least Dustin McDaniel could run in the 4th after Ross moves on and hold it.

This map has the worst of everything:

[krazen1211]

The bottom line is if they shoot for a 3-1 D delegation, they will likely end up with a 4-0 R delegation after Ross.

With the Fayettville to the Fourth plan, at least Dustin McDaniel could run in the 4th after Ross moves on and hold it.

This map has the worst of everything:

What's the point of even splitting counties there?

[Miles]

I'm sure the AR Dems, in all their infinite wisdom, have a very strategic reason for county splitting.

[Napoleon]

Perhaps Arkansas Democrats see more favorable funding for their state government with the Republican majority that probably isn't going anywhere any time soon? They don't really gain anything otherwise.