US House Redistricting: Arkansas

[Miles]

I created this map for 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans. I actually submitted this plan to the AR redistricting website.



Blue- Mike Ross (D) Ross trades most of his western territory for nearly the entire delta region. I had to make this district winnable for a Democrat in the future when Ross moves onto bigger things.

Green- Bill Halter (D) I designed this district so that former Lt. Governor Bill Halter could make a political comeback; he would likely defeat incumbent Tim Griffin in this district. Really, any Democrat could win here; this new district would actually have gone for Kerry over Bush. Its anchored in Little Rock and Pine Bluff.

Purple- Steve Womack (R) The third district is reconfigured so that it encompasses nearly the entire northern border. Its population base is still in Benton and Washington counties. Womack is still quite safe.

Red- Open Seat. Under this plan, Rep. Rick Crawford would live in Mike Ross’ district, thus this seat is open. Basically, I made this out of the counties I had left over from the other districts. It contains mostly rural central and western counties. Likely Republican.

[Miles]

I created this map for 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans. I actually submitted this plan to the AR redistricting website.



Blue- Mike Ross (D) Ross trades most of his western territory for nearly the entire delta region. I had to make this district winnable for a Democrat in the future when Ross moves onto bigger things.

Green- Bill Halter (D) I designed this district so that former Lt. Governor Bill Halter could make a political comeback; he would likely defeat incumbent Tim Griffin in this district. Really, any Democrat could win here; this new district would actually have gone for Kerry over Bush. Its anchored in Little Rock and Pine Bluff.

Purple- Steve Womack (R) The third district is reconfigured so that it encompasses nearly the entire northern border. Its population base is still in Benton and Washington counties. Womack is still quite safe.

Red- Open Seat. Under this plan, Rep. Rick Crawford would live in Mike Ross’ district, thus this seat is open. Basically, I made this out of the counties I had left over from the other districts. It contains mostly rural central and western counties. Likely Republican.

What is the PVI on that blue district? It looks lost, anyway, once Ross leaves.

By my calculations, it's about an R+5, and trending hard toward the GOP.  In Arkansas, that's as close to a 2-2 map as you're going to get- the district was won by Gore and only narrowly lost by Kerry (margin of 1,454).

Thats right, the blue district is down to R+5 from R+7. Bush would have carried it by less than 2500 votes.

Here are the district PVI's based on the 2004 election only (2008 skewed the data way towards the GOP):

CD1 (Red): R+10
CD2 (Green): D+4
CD3 (Purple): R+12
CD4 (Blue): EVEN

Both the CD1 and CD3 would be off limits for the Dems. They should have no problem winning the Pulaski-based district. I'm pretty sure a white Democrat would hold CD4 after Ross moves on.

[Miles]

Yikes...thats gonna be a tough sell. Surely, they can do better...

[Miles]

How much more Dem does AR-1 become?

I'd say only slightly more Democratic.

The only conservative county that it takes in is Van Buren from CD2. Otherwise, it adds Desha, Chicot, Drew and most of Lincoln, all of which are fairly liberal.

Its new PVI would probably be about R+6, down from R+8. Still, Causey would be very competitive with Crawford in a rematch.

Looks like they're shooting for another 3-1 Dem map.  No other reason to keep Little Rock in with all its heavily Republican Suburbs like that when it could easily be added to the 1st to swing it towards the Democrats more.

A 3-1 Democratic plan could end up as a huge dummymander. They'd be better off making 2 Dem districts and conceding the other 2.

Under this plan, here is what would need to happen for a 3-1 D delegation:

-If Ross leaves at some point, they could draft Dustin McDaniel (who lives in  Fayettville); he could hold this district

-Causey would need to defeat Crawford; actually in neutral year, this would be a true tossup

-Bill Halter, or some other top-tier Democratic state legislator, would need to take out Griffin

[Miles]

This could go 4-0 for them when Ross is gone.

Yep, the more I think about this plan, the more I think it will turn out a dummymander...

[Miles]

This is the best plan I've seen come out of the AR Legislature....



Democrats would obviously concede CD1 and CD3.

CD2 gave Kerry A 52-48 win, but a McCain flipped that margin in 2008. It would have a pretty even PVI. This would also pit Crawford against Griffin.

CD4 would be down to about R+5. Every county that this district takes in voted for Lincoln.

Overall, in terms of PVI's, this map is pretty similar to my plan.

[Miles]

This is what the "Fayetteville to the Fourth" plan looks like without county lines. To its credit, the deviation of each district is less than 250 people...


 
Still, it has a face only an Arkansan Democrat can love...

[Miles]

Johnny's plan is pretty good. It keeps the county lines relatively intact and the blue and red districts would be pretty Dem-friendly.

I was thinking about the 'Fayetteville to the Fourth' plan, and it could actually be a pretty good 2-2 plan. The first district (already a swingy district by AR standards) would get more Democratic and in a neutral year, I'm sure a Democrat could win it. Second, after Ross leaves, Dustin McDaniel (who lives in Fayettvile) could hold it for the Dems.

[Miles]

No offense, but you're numbers are way off.

I started to do your plan and the 3rd district has 75000 extra people!

Have you tried Dave's Redistricting App?

http://www.gardow.com/davebradlee/redistricting/launchapp.html

[Miles]

Is it safe to say Republicans are screwed in Arkansas for another decade?

From the looks of things, quite the contrary.

[Miles]

This is the "modified" version of the 'Fayettville to the Fourth' plan that they've come up with.

...And I thought it couldn't get much worse than the original....Silly me!

[Miles]

The bottom line is if they shoot for a 3-1 D delegation, they will likely end up with a 4-0 R delegation after Ross.

With the Fayettville to the Fourth plan, at least Dustin McDaniel could run in the 4th after Ross moves on and hold it.

This map has the worst of everything:

[Miles]

I'm sure the AR Dems, in all their infinite wisdom, have a very strategic reason for county splitting.

[Miles]

I hope the Democrats gerrymander the hell out of IL.

[Miles]

Here's the latest iteration of the map...

God damn it....

[Miles]

it looks like Louisiana and Arkansas are trading karma.  Dems are getting a decent map in the former, and Republicans are getting a decent map in the latter.

I agree. The final LA map could be pretty decent. The AR Dems are just screwing themselves over.

[Miles]

Here's the latest iteration of the map...

God damn it....

it looks like Louisiana and Arkansas are trading karma.  Dems are getting a decent map in the former, and Republicans are getting a decent map in the latter.

This is apparently the final map that Beebe will sign.

The state Democrats must have some great candidates or they better hope Obama isn't reelected...

Maybe Dustin McDaniel could move to the 4th after Ross leaves.

I could see Bill Halter being competitive with Tim Griffin the 2nd.

[Miles]

I'm still super-pissed.

[Miles]

BUMP

I did this while I was bored today.



Its pretty similar to the first map I made last year.

The changes:

-The third now spans the OK border, instead of the MO border in my original map. This way, the fourth can be based entirely in north-central AR, as opposed to hooking down into the Texarakana region.

-Bill Clinton's home of Hope is now in a Democratic district.

Overall, should be a pretty reliable 2-2. Something like this would have been nice...