US House Redistricting: Arkansas

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

If you're going to go for a 3-1 map, why screw over a GOP incumbent? Why not bring the Little Rock district west instead and put the Dems in Ross's district? Ross isn't even 50 yet, and a map like yours could dissuade him from a gubernatorial bid if he feels he's the only one who could hold the district.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Oh yeah, that's right. I forgot there was still a place where Democrats control redistricting. In that case, your map does seem sensible from the Democrats' perspective. Whether or not Ross stays in the House is irrelevant since the best the Democrats can do without him is 3-1 anyway.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

I created this map for 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans. I actually submitted this plan to the AR redistricting website.



Blue- Mike Ross (D) Ross trades most of his western territory for nearly the entire delta region. I had to make this district winnable for a Democrat in the future when Ross moves onto bigger things.

Green- Bill Halter (D) I designed this district so that former Lt. Governor Bill Halter could make a political comeback; he would likely defeat incumbent Tim Griffin in this district. Really, any Democrat could win here; this new district would actually have gone for Kerry over Bush. Its anchored in Little Rock and Pine Bluff.

Purple- Steve Womack (R) The third district is reconfigured so that it encompasses nearly the entire northern border. Its population base is still in Benton and Washington counties. Womack is still quite safe.

Red- Open Seat. Under this plan, Rep. Rick Crawford would live in Mike Ross’ district, thus this seat is open. Basically, I made this out of the counties I had left over from the other districts. It contains mostly rural central and western counties. Likely Republican.

What is the PVI on that blue district? It looks lost, anyway, once Ross leaves.

By my calculations, it's about an R+5, and trending hard toward the GOP.  In Arkansas, that's as close to a 2-2 map as you're going to get- the district was won by Gore and only narrowly lost by Kerry (margin of 1,454).

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Is it safe to say Republicans are screwed in Arkansas for another decade?

No, this map seems to almost maintain the status quo, actually. Once Ross loses or retires it will probably be 4R 0D. Fine by me, the fewer blue dogs, the better.

Look, I am no fan of most of the blue dogs, but this is the same type of thinking that has cost Republicans a number of seats over the past few election cycles ("who cares if a Democrat wins, at least it's one less "RINO").  The 2010 Delaware Senate race is a prime example of this (and it would've probably cost Republicans even more seats in 2010 had it been a normal year).  I have no problem with primarying blue-dogs in areas where a more liberal Democrat could just as easily keep the seat/district in Democratic hands.  However, there are places (such as Ross' district) where the only choices are either a blue-dog or a right-wing Republican.  The blue-dog may be a pain in the rear sometimes, and he/she may only vote with his/her party some of the time, but I can promise you that the Republican (especially one from a district like AR-4) will NEVER vote with the Democrats on important issues (and often not minor ones). 

Agreed. It's far better to have a majority with a few moderates than a perpetual minority with an "ideologically pure" party. People like Nancy Pelosi didn't win the House for the Democrats in 2006, people like Heath Shuler did. You would do well to remember that.