US House Redistricting: Arkansas

[DrScholl]

I think 2-2 should have been the target as well, but it shouldn't surprise me that they would push limits here.

Shane Broadway could probably defeat Griffin in that AR-2, he lost the Lt. Governor race in '10, but won Saline County, where he's reasonably popular. If Democrats could squeeze out good turnout in the Delta counties, a Democrat could win AR-1.

[DrScholl]

From what I'm reading, the State Senate has it's version, so they may be a little less ambitious. If they were going to unlock Fayetteville to help Ross, the only other move should have to sink Griffin, by giving him the heavy to moderate Democratic portions of Crawford's district.

[DrScholl]

The Arkansas GOP released this frantic sounded ad about the Fayettevile to the Fourth plan.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nzEGVd6WXlU

[DrScholl]

Democrats do benefit from the Arkansas GOP being more than a bit unorganized, which is why the legislature stayed in Democratic hands, many Dem seats were uncontested.

The plan was amended earlier today that exchanged some territory between districts, but not anything did much politically.

[DrScholl]

Some Democrats don't like it, particularly ones from Fayetteville, so votes in the state senate might not be there for it to pass.

[DrScholl]

It's basically close to what the map is now and it really depends on who the Democratic candidates will be in AR-1 and AR-2, local connections still count for a lot in Arkansas.