US House Redistricting: Arkansas

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AR-1: 728637
AR-2: 729800
AR-3: 729607
AR-4: 727874


Deviation of less than 2000, and no county splits. If only the GOP there got its act together, the writing is on the wall here.

I'm guessing on this map, Ross could hold the green district for 1 cycle, and it would go back GOP when he leaves. Griffin is just completely hosed in the red district.

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Conceding one in the hopes of holding the other three throughout, without giving up the rocksolid northwestern seat. And not an unreasonable map, either.

Yep. It's not a horrid map for the GOP (although they're trying to push for a 4-0 map, like the current one. Ross' district is going Republican when he leaves).

It's hard to see how the Democrats draw a 2-2 map without mashing counties, which is probably where the Fayetteville to the 4th plan comes in. That plan tendrils in the City of Fayetteville into the green district, and ends up connecting Fayetteville and Pine Bluff and Chicot County in the opposite corner of the state.

As it stands, this 4 corners map happens to dump all the Democrats into the red district. The question is whether Arkansas is going the way of South Carolina, Alabama, Georgia, Lousiana, and the rest of the South, and when.

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If you're going to go for a 3-1 map, why screw over a GOP incumbent? Why not bring the Little Rock district west instead and put the Dems in Ross's district? Ross isn't even 50 yet, and a map like yours could dissuade him from a gubernatorial bid if he feels he's the only one who could hold the district.

Well, the Democrats control redistricting here, so any GOP plan is unlikely to pass. But if you're the Democrats:

1. The above map gets rid of a Republican incumbent, which will make Pryor very happy.
2. The above map guarantees you 1 seat even if Barack Obama shellacks your state party just as he did in Louisiana.
3. The above map gives you 2-2 as long as you can convince Ross to stay.
4. The above map makes the NAACP happy.
5. The above map looks clean and adheres to traditional principles there.


The GOP would keep Pulaski, Jefferson, and the Delta in 3 different districts and maintain R+8 or higher in all 4 districts. The Democrats, well, they don't seem to know what they want to do at this point.

Pulaski is the largest county and the state and its heavily Democratic (for Arkansas). In the long term, the GOP would want it in the Democratic vote dump. That red district is 53% Obama. Ross lives in the southwestern corner of the state and its really inconvenient to put him in with the Delta anyway.

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I created this map for 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans. I actually submitted this plan to the AR redistricting website.



Blue- Mike Ross (D) Ross trades most of his western territory for nearly the entire delta region. I had to make this district winnable for a Democrat in the future when Ross moves onto bigger things.

Green- Bill Halter (D) I designed this district so that former Lt. Governor Bill Halter could make a political comeback; he would likely defeat incumbent Tim Griffin in this district. Really, any Democrat could win here; this new district would actually have gone for Kerry over Bush. Its anchored in Little Rock and Pine Bluff.

Purple- Steve Womack (R) The third district is reconfigured so that it encompasses nearly the entire northern border. Its population base is still in Benton and Washington counties. Womack is still quite safe.

Red- Open Seat. Under this plan, Rep. Rick Crawford would live in Mike Ross’ district, thus this seat is open. Basically, I made this out of the counties I had left over from the other districts. It contains mostly rural central and western counties. Likely Republican.

What is the PVI on that blue district? It looks lost, anyway, once Ross leaves.

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Thats right, the blue district is down to R+5 from R+7. Bush would have carried it by less than 2500 votes.

Here are the district PVI's based on the 2004 election only (2008 skewed the data way towards the GOP):

CD1 (Red): R+10
CD2 (Green): D+4
CD3 (Purple): R+12
CD4 (Blue): EVEN

Both the CD1 and CD3 would be off limits for the Dems. They should have no problem winning the Pulaski-based district. I'm pretty sure a white Democrat would hold CD4 after Ross moves on.

They would have a decent shot for sure. But the current CD-2 was 51% Bush and of course went Republican when it became vacant. The current CD-4 was also 51% Bush and Ross has conceded that he'll be the last Democrat to hold it.

Obviously, though, its the best you can do.

Edit. They just unveiled the Dem plan.

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How Republican is the AR-3 in that map since they took most of the Dem areas out of it and put them in Ross's district?

68% McCain or so.

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I'm thinking that city Dems and Delta Dems just don't want to share a district and that's what's going to keep them from drawing a district one of them can win.

You're kind of wasting Pulaski if you went that district west into the 65% McCain Counties.

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http://tolbertreport.com/2011/03/28/poll-shows-overwhelming-opposition-from-fayetteville-to-congressional-redistricting-plan/

The results show that 81.8 percent prefer to remain in their current district with Bentonville, Rogers and Fort Smith while 10.2 percent prefer to be moved to a new district with Hot Springs, Pine Bluff and Texarkana. Only 8.0 percent indicated they were unsure.




I think we have our dummymander of the decade. I think they missed the memo in Little Rock; you're supposed to screw the other side in redistricting, not your own guys.

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The Tolbert Poll says that they do care and hate the plan. 

It's a poll by a conservative group with an interest in holding off this map and the premise is that you're asking people their opinions. Generally people have no idea what their maps look like or who their representative is. It's a major uphill battle to get people to care about this process stuff.

This.

What the poll says is, when asked, people would prefer in a district with cities near them. Which is pretty much the definition of "they needed to take a poll to tell us that? Wtf?"  (You would have to be copped in to politics to even be aware that the "(named) cities far from here" option means a Democratic congressman.) They did not in any way or form ask people how strongly they feel about the proposal, or if they were previously aware of it.

I think this plan is bad for the GOP.  It turns an already packed AR 3 into a hyperpacked AR 3. 

Yes, it does. The question is - is that enough for Arkansas Democrats to bounce back as they did after 94? Or are they in danger of losing the 1st and 3rd, and perhaps the 4th as well, for good, unless they massively redraw the map?
It really depends on what you expect to happen in the future. It would have been possible to draw a seat that would be safe Democratic even if Congressional voting patterns continue to mirror the last presidential election, as they did in 2010 across the south, but never before. They aren't doing that. It's a major gamble.

They actually asked about interest levels.

http://tolbertreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/PollReportFayetteville2Fourth.pdf

Truthfully, squiggly lines like this have worked well for the Democrats in other places; Georgia in the 1990s, for instance.

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Yeah, that's a 4-0 map. Thanks, Arkansas.

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The bottom line is if they shoot for a 3-1 D delegation, they will likely end up with a 4-0 R delegation after Ross.

With the Fayettville to the Fourth plan, at least Dustin McDaniel could run in the 4th after Ross moves on and hold it.

This map has the worst of everything:

What's the point of even splitting counties there?

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it looks like Louisiana and Arkansas are trading karma.  Dems are getting a decent map in the former, and Republicans are getting a decent map in the latter.

Nah, Jindal isn't going to let them pull any of these stunts with the 4th district.