US House Redistricting: Iowa

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I'd guess the Democrats would be happy with that map; it looks like a 2D-1R map with a Dem-leaning IA-03.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

...And the Dems would not be happy with that map.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Since they still have control of the State Senate, I'm assuming yes.

After looking at it again (and seeing your numbers), I think the first map is pretty much the fairest one you're going to get, considering the state's bleeding population outside of the Dem-friendly areas. You've got one safe Dem district, one safe Rep district, and two districts that could conceivably go either way; IA-02 would probably be pretty marginal, especially with Loebsack in the seat.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Cribbing the numbers from SSP:

District    Obama    McCain    Other       Kerry    Bush    Other
IA-01    58.0%    40.1%    1.9%       53.1%    46.1%    0.8%
IA-02    56.6%    41.2%    2.1%       52.5%    46.5%    1.0%
IA-03    51.9%    45.8%    2.3%       47.1%    52.1%    0.8%
IA-04    48.1%    49.8%    2.1%       44.2%    55.0%    0.9%

Looks pretty fair to me. Once Boswell is gone, you get two pretty solid seats for each party.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Looks like the first map is probably going to be put into place.