German Elections

[H. Ross Peron]

How will the next few German elections go? Will it still be largely CDU-CSU and SDP forming coalition governments or will there be earthquakes (ie the Left or the far right winning large chunks of votes)?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Thread belongs into the "International Elections" forum.

But if you ask for longer-running trends, the two major parties have been in decline for some time.

Combined vote for CDU/CSU and SPD in Bundestag elections.
1998: 76.0%
2002: 77.0%
2005: 69.4%
2009: 56.8%
Emind poll, 02/13/11: 59%
Infratest poll, 02/14/11: 61%

While the drop in 2009 could be seen as a by-product of the Grand coalition, it also fits the overall trend.

Recently, there's some speculation that the Greens could become a major party in their own right and that the FDP will desintegrate. But both things have yet to materialize in actual election results and it's quite possible that it's just a media hype. For the most part anyway. As far as election results are concerned all three "smaller" parties have profited from the decline of CDU/SPD in the past and I assume that will continue to do so.

I also predict that the NPD will never come close to 5% in federal elections. Of course, there's the never-ending discussion whether a new right-wing conservative party (sort of a "German FPÖ") could emerge between CDU and the neo-Nazi parties. This debate goes all the way back to the Schill party managing to win nearly 20% in the 2001 Hamburg elections (it quickly self-destructed shortly after though). It was kept alive by the CDU's supposed move to the center under Angela Merkel and CDU's decline in election and poll numbers, with conservative critics of Merkel claiming to see a direct connection between the two. But just like the Greens' predicted rise to major party status it's probably just a wet dream of some political commentators.

Regarding future governing elections: As soon as SPD and Left Party will overcome their animosity, coalitions will probably start to alternate between CDU/FDP and SPD/Greens/Left for the most part. As long as this isn't the case, other coalition models are still an option (mostly CDU/SPD and CDU/Greens).

[Franzl]

A continuation of the CDU-FDP government, IMO, is highly unlikely at this point. I can't imagine this government ever becoming popular again.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

A continuation of the CDU-FDP government, IMO, is highly unlikely at this point. I can't imagine this government ever becoming popular again.

Stranger things has happened. If you'd told anyone back in the early 80's that Thatcher would go on to be PM for 11 years, and would win the next election in a landslide, most people with political knowledge would probably have thought you a bit ignorant and an extream hack. Of course, Thatcher had the Falklands to help her regain popularity.

Still, the most likly result would be a defeat of CDU/FDP in the next election. 

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, one could argue that it has generally become harder for CDU/CSU and FDP to win a numerical majority in the Bundestag. Elections which resulted in no majority for CDU/CSU and FDP (not even theoretically): 1949, 1998, 2002, 2005.

In other words: Before 1990, 91% of all Bundestag elections had resulted in a numerical majority for CDU/CSU and FDP. Since 1990, only 50% of all elections have resulted in such majority.

The aforementioned decline of CDU/CSU and SPD as well as the emergence of the PDS/Left Party (re-unification) and earlier the Greens certainly played a role here.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Stranger things has happened. If you'd told anyone back in the early 80's that Thatcher would go on to be PM for 11 years, and would win the next election in a landslide, most people with political knowledge would probably have thought you a bit ignorant and an extream hack. Of course, Thatcher had the Falklands to help her regain popularity.

Not just the Falklands, but the disintegration of the only credible opposition party into a vicious civil war and the emergence (partially as a result) of a new third force that had a great deal of support and momentum, but lacked clarity and was poorly directed.

[minionofmidas]

A continuation of the CDU-FDP government, IMO, is highly unlikely at this point. I can't imagine this government ever becoming popular again.

I could certainly see them win a gravity-defying reelection without popularity, thanks to opposition ineptitude, a la Kohl'94.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Stranger things has happened. If you'd told anyone back in the early 80's that Thatcher would go on to be PM for 11 years, and would win the next election in a landslide, most people with political knowledge would probably have thought you a bit ignorant and an extream hack. Of course, Thatcher had the Falklands to help her regain popularity.

Not just the Falklands, but the disintegration of the only credible opposition party into a vicious civil war and the emergence (partially as a result) of a new third force that had a great deal of support and momentum, but lacked clarity and was poorly directed.

Yes, Thatcher being reelected of course had more factors to it than just the Falklands. The opposition being devided is never good for their electoral preformances, especially not in a country that uses FPTP.

That's a bit what I'm trying to get at. Even if Thatcher at some points of her first term was "The most unpopular Prime Minister since polling began" several different factors caused her to still manage to get re-elected. Since we don't know all factors that will exist next time we have Bundestag elections, it's hard to say that the goverment is already ensured defeat