NH-Magellan Strategies (R): Obama leads Republicans from 4 to 23 points

[Tender Branson]

Obama Approval Rating:

50-44

Obama Favorable Rating:

52-44

2012 Matchups:

Obama vs. Romney: 48-44
Obama vs. Huckabee: 51-38
Obama vs. Palin: 57-34
Obama vs. Gingrich: 56-33

Favorable Ratings:

42-39 Huckabee
45-44 Romney
36-61 Palin
29-59 Gingrich

Gay Marriage:

35% Favor Repeal
56% Oppose Repeal

Health Care Law:

50% Favor Repeal
43% Oppose Repeal

Party breakdown of the poll:

Republican .................................................................................. 32%
Democrat .................................................................................... 31%
Independent ............................................................................... 37%

http://www.politico.com/pdf/PPM185_nhjournalpoll21111.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Map:

Obama vs. Huckabee

Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Gingrich

Obama vs. Palin

[Tender Branson]

BTW, this poll was done for the NH Journal which is a non-partisan magazine.

http://nhjournal.com/2011/02/11/obama-rebounding-in-nh-but-obamacare-on-the-ropes/

These figure look like they could come straight from PPP.

Maybe PPP will poll NH next weekend, they have it listed as one of their choices this week:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/02/this-weeks-finalists.html

[Landslide Lyndon]

Wow, those are some sh**ty numbers for Gingrich.

[RJ]

Obama leads SC over Gingrich??

[redcommander]

LOL at Palin.

[pbrower2a]

Wow, those are some sh**ty numbers for Gingrich.

Really bad.

When since 1964 has any Democrat projected to defeat a major Republican nominee with a split of 55-45 or larger in New Hampshire? Obama couldn't do that to John McCain.

Gingrich has some huge negatives.

[DrScholl]

Gingrich and Palin's numbers are disastrous.

[King]

Palin-Gingrich 2012!

[Brittain33]

Romney becomes the umpteenth candidate to loses his home state against Obama.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney becomes the umpteenth candidate to loses his home state against Obama.

New Hampshire is his umpteenth "home state".

[Mehmentum]

Obama leads SC over Gingrich??
[/quote
Yep, Gringrich is looking like he would only be a somewhat better choice than Palin.

[Brittain33]

Romney becomes the umpteenth candidate to loses his home state against Obama.

New Hampshire is his umpteenth "home state".

True, this comes on top of him losing Michigan. It's where he has his primary residence now. I wouldn't be cruel enough to hold losing Massachusetts to Obama against him.

[RI]

He'll always have Utah.

[Person Man]

He'll always have Utah.

[Mjh]

It is nice to see that Romney at least could make New Hampshire competitive in a General Election.

[Gustaf]

This is more or less to be expected though. The interesting thing to note is really the spread between Huckabee and Romney. Given national numbers this indicates that Romney could win NH in a close race, while Huckabee wouldn't have a chance.

Also, when it comes to Gingrich v Palin, give Gingrich a break. Palin has had a lot more visibility in recent years and Gingrich didn't exit the national scene very well back in the 90s. Gingrich has a lot more potential to improve whereas Palin is likely to just do worse the more people get to see of her.

[Brittain33]

Also, when it comes to Gingrich v Palin, give Gingrich a break. Palin has had a lot more visibility in recent years and Gingrich didn't exit the national scene very well back in the 90s. Gingrich has a lot more potential to improve whereas Palin is likely to just do worse the more people get to see of her.

But he's still Gingrich. He had room to improve like Kerry and Giuliani did. The more people see of him, the worse he's going to do. He's an unappetizing candidate and has too little control over what comes out of his mouth.

[Gustaf]

Also, when it comes to Gingrich v Palin, give Gingrich a break. Palin has had a lot more visibility in recent years and Gingrich didn't exit the national scene very well back in the 90s. Gingrich has a lot more potential to improve whereas Palin is likely to just do worse the more people get to see of her.

But he's still Gingrich. He had room to improve like Kerry and Giuliani did. The more people see of him, the worse he's going to do. He's an unappetizing candidate and has too little control over what comes out of his mouth.

Ah, that's another more subjective issue. You're predicting Gingrich isn't going to gain in support. That might well be true, but he still has a theoretical chance to reinvent himself and prove his worth.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Also, when it comes to Gingrich v Palin, give Gingrich a break. Palin has had a lot more visibility in recent years and Gingrich didn't exit the national scene very well back in the 90s. Gingrich has a lot more potential to improve whereas Palin is likely to just do worse the more people get to see of her.

But he's still Gingrich. He had room to improve like Kerry and Giuliani did. The more people see of him, the worse he's going to do. He's an unappetizing candidate and has too little control over what comes out of his mouth.

Ah, that's another more subjective issue. You're predicting Gingrich isn't going to gain in support. That might well be true, but he still has a theoretical chance to reinvent himself and prove his worth.

Yes he does have potential, but he doesn't help himself when he makes videos about anti-colonialist marxism in Africa in the 1950's.

[Brittain33]

Ah, that's another more subjective issue. You're predicting Gingrich isn't going to gain in support. That might well be true, but he still has a theoretical chance to reinvent himself and prove his worth.

Here's a quote from Nate Silver:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Pat Buchanan and Al Sharpton. Think about that.

Undecideds are low, too. Gingrich is at 33%-47% fav/unfav. That makes him more unpopular now than Hillary Clinton was in 2007, albeit marginally--but his favorables are much lower. Who does that leave in the TBD column?

The people who don't have an established opinion about Newt Gingrich are those who are too young to have formed an opinion of him in the 1990s, when he was a figure of national prominence. His opportunity to reintroduce himself is selective and based on new people entering the voter pool. Unfortunately, these are the voters who are least likely to be open to supporting a conservative Republican in 2012, and anything he's going to say or do (particularly harping on social issues and Islamo-fascism, as are his particular tactics) is going to keep them solidly in the Democratic camp. I'm sure Phil and Inks would be the first to say that they're outnumbered by their classmates when it comes to politics.

While all of this is subjective, I think I provide sufficient evidence to make the case that Gingrich does not have an opportunity to be a fresh face and increase his support among enough voters to make himself viable.

[Gustaf]

Ah, that's another more subjective issue. You're predicting Gingrich isn't going to gain in support. That might well be true, but he still has a theoretical chance to reinvent himself and prove his worth.

Here's a quote from Nate Silver:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Pat Buchanan and Al Sharpton. Think about that.

Undecideds are low, too. Gingrich is at 33%-47% fav/unfav. That makes him more unpopular now than Hillary Clinton was in 2007, albeit marginally--but his favorables are much lower. Who does that leave in the TBD column?

The people who don't have an established opinion about Newt Gingrich are those who are too young to have formed an opinion of him in the 1990s, when he was a figure of national prominence. His opportunity to reintroduce himself is selective and based on new people entering the voter pool. Unfortunately, these are the voters who are least likely to be open to supporting a conservative Republican in 2012, and anything he's going to say or do (particularly harping on social issues and Islamo-fascism, as are his particular tactics) is going to keep them solidly in the Democratic camp. I'm sure Phil and Inks would be the first to say that they're outnumbered by their classmates when it comes to politics.

While all of this is subjective, I think I provide sufficient evidence to make the case that Gingrich does not have an opportunity to be a fresh face and increase his support among enough voters to make himself viable.

I hope you didn't interpret me as saying that Gingrich is awesome and has a great shot at the presidency or anything. I just think he has a better position relative to Palin, because Palin is so much fresher in the public mind.

I mostly agree with your last paragraph. I would basically have removed the "not" and replaced "viable" with "more viable than Palin" And that doesn't contradict your post.

[Brittain33]

I hope you didn't interpret me as saying that Gingrich is awesome and has a great shot at the presidency or anything.

No, I didn't read that in what you were saying, FWIW.