Libya: Benghazi unrest, to Civil War, to a new government and Gaddafi's death.

[Franzl]

If pictures emerged of Gaddafi's corpse being hung from a tree by his feet, J. J. would argue that as long as he's still vertical rather than horizontal, he still maintains some degree of control.  And then he'd post the latest gold prices for whatever reason.

Which might lead to a civil war, especially if some groups have reason to believe that Gaddafi isn't really gone. I'm curious about the next Rasmussen poll. We just might see real and permanent movement away from Obama because of this.

[Mr. Morden]

Lol, apparently one of the pockets of territory in Tripoli still held by the Gaddafi forces is the state TV building, which is still broadcasting.  From Al Jazeera's blog:

http://blogs.aljazeera.net/liveblog/Libya

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[Mr. Morden]

If the recent reports and rebel claims are true, big things could be happening. Tripoli would now be effectively cut off from supply lines.

Many of the news stories say that Tripoli is cut off, though the map suggests that they should still be able to re-supply from Chad or Sudan via Bani Walid and the south:

Is there a color code key so I have some reasonable idea who is who?  I suspect blue stands for areas controlled by Qaddafi, and brown for rebel-held areas.  I have no idea what the green stands for, unless it stands for contested areas.  

Or do I have the blue and green mixed up?  Please help.  

green = Gaddafi
brown = rebels
blue = ongoing fighting / situation unclear

The map is updated every day, so even though I posted it several days ago, it now shows the updated situation, with Tripoli in blue.

EDIT: And now they've changed Tripoli again, to a big brown circle with a blue dot in the middle.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The evolution is very promising. Hopefully this is coming to an end.

[Mr. Morden]

Gaddafi's forces have brought some tanks out of the Bab al-Aziziyah military headquarters.

From Al Jazeera's blog:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Also: "Forty international journalists are now trapped in the Rixos Hotel, Khodr reports."

[© tweed]

looks like we've found the new blueprint for Western intervention.

[Mr. Morden]

Al Jazeera: "Libyan rebel sources have told Al Jazeera that NATO is planning on launching strikes against the walls of Gaddafi's Bab al-Aziziya compound, in order to break into it."

[Landslide Lyndon]

So, when are we going to open the JJ Goldmine?

[patrick1]

Maybe the second shooter from Norway will emerge to help Gaddafi out.  However, the real question is whether this is a realigning revolution....

[Middle-aged Europe]

It's certainly possible that current events in Gadaffi's bunker resemble a real-life enactment of Downfall.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfkDxF2kn1I&feature=related

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Gaddafi now pinned down to three pockets if this map is correct:

[Silent Hunter]

Which might lead to a civil war, especially if some groups have reason to believe that Gaddafi isn't really gone. I'm curious about the next Rasmussen poll. We just might see real and permanent movement away from Obama because of this.

If the past six months haven't been a civil war, then what have they been?

[Middle-aged Europe]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfkDxF2kn1I&feature=related

Gadaffi's rants are probably closer to the actual translation now:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_YQR36fQ_Xc

[MaxQue]

Something new since yesterday?

Canadian news more or less stopped coverage of it, for obvious reasons.

[The Mikado]

Something new since yesterday?

Canadian news more or less stopped coverage of it, for obvious reasons.

Since yesterday?  Well, a fair amount of journalists are trapped inside the Rixos Hotel, a Qaddafi stronghold in a rebel-occupied city, and are getting very nervous.

Also, Khamis Qaddafi has promised to use what's left of the regime's military in one last-ditch strike on Tripoli.  Stay tuned.

EDIT:  Also, apparently Muhammad Qaddafi (one of Qaddafi's sons captured by the rebels yesterday) escaped from house arrest this morning.  How the hell does that even happen?

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Yay.

I abandon the news 2 days and Tripoli is fallen, wow, congrats to Lybian people, and shows how Gaddafi's power was mainly maintained by fear in case it had to be proven. No matter the sort of Gaddafi, today might be liberation for Libya.

Something new since yesterday?

EDITION SPECIALE: AFFAIRE DSK - Nafissatou Diallo convoquée par le procureur [/France24]

They got me used to better but this DSK affair seems to have an incredible power to turn 90% of people who have a French DNA crazy. To be fair I just switched my TV on, they would have done something on Libya before, I hope.

Which might lead to a civil war, especially if some groups have reason to believe that Gaddafi isn't really gone. I'm curious about the next Rasmussen poll. We just might see real and permanent movement away from Obama because of this.

If the past six months haven't been a civil war, then what have they been?

A war between teachers, engineers, farmers, other kinds of civilians on one side, and the most faithful soldiers, or those of which families were threatened if they refused to fight on the other side, of an army and some mercenaries on the other side. Plus some external powers helping the former ones, with respect and self control.

The most of civilian war that happened was in the beginning, when people from Zintan and around began to step by step taking Gaddafi forces over in the mountains, Gaddafi forces distributed a lot of weapons in some small cities there, to cut the advance of rebels, which sometimes slowed them, but apparently there hadn't been much 'civil war'. There has also been those reports speaking of some war crimes when they advanced on Gharyan, well, yes, as in most wars nothing can be perfectly clean apparently, but I don't think it qualifies as a civil war. It took time for rebels to go from the mountain to step by step gain all that ground to reach the sea, those who wanted to make a war might have awoken before, in case there would be enough people who would actually want to defend Gaddafi regime.

Oho, seems too late for a civil war.

Now, will it be messy? Indeed. It is in all revolutionary situation, and maybe still more after a war context. It's been, and still is, messy in Tunisia and Egypt, with all kinds of influences at work, and those of the former regimes ahead indeed, all people who have lost everything have nothing to lose.

Will it be over messy? Frankly, I might be wrong but personally I don't think so, I think most Libyans actually want to build something constructive, and want to make it the most peacefully possible. They had nothing at all there politically, all is to build, and they seem genuinely interesting in building. With all I've seen from them since the beginning of this conflict, I'm personally quite optimistic.

Good luck to them, and may that annoying guy be caught the soonest. The guy seems to like to make the show, hopefully Hague will be his next stage, as long as thats what Libyans want, and it seems thats what they want.

(...oh f..., france24, 30 mins later, DSK still on and...OH!...NAFISSATOU DIALLO HAS JUST ARRIVED AT COURT!!...'we can see her, look, she gets out of the car, she climbs the stairs...stay with us...you have just seen Nafissatou Diallo arriving at court...and now here is a portrait of her...and blahblahbablha'...[/true report])

looks like we've found the new blueprint for Western intervention.

What I hope since the beginning of it. So far seems achieved, and that's great if so.

'USA dreamed of it, France did it'.

...and lol at all comments from those brilliant guys of US army till Mullen and Gates during all conflict...

'this is an impasse...this operation can't reach its goal...the forces engaged are too weak...France and UK miss amunitions (lol)...this is not the good method...we should act more tough and more direct...blahblhablha'

...so much brilliant comments which 1st were like loudly saying: 'it's ok Muhamar! dont worry! with french and british you're not in danger!' Which is brilliant in term of psychological strategy...and second USA have so much lessons to give in term of successful operational strategy......

(well, to be honest a few old school guys of the French army haven't been better sometimes, the most decent has been the chief of staff of the air force...)

Yeah I hope this operation opened a new psychology and a new model in term of strategy and of international relationships, glad it comes from Europe...may West Point work on it. Seems to be more efficient, and overall more relevant and constructive, than the 'F**K THE NASTY REGIME/TERRORISTS' 'tactic'...

(oh damn, one more long post, and one hour latter...'Cyrus Vans already reported 2 times the audience...and oh...Nafissatou Diallo had just gone out from the court...etc...)

[J. J.]

Wasn't there suppose to be a victory parade today?  I thought, BRTD, Lief, Jfern, and King were going?

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

France24 finally awoke, according to Mathieu Mabin, serious and quite cautious reporter (usually even too much cautious to my taste, but maybe better too much than not enough), reporting from Tripoli right now, situation is quite messy, and some pro-Gadaffi units still fighting hard here or there, still according to him, most of the population is frightened at home (normal).

When you see that in Tunis it took about 3 days to put a kind of normal order in the city while the army was well organized and respected by the population, any situation that would more or less look like a quite situation in less than 3 days in Tripoli, in a non-state without the presence of an organized army would be a very good surprise.

[John Dibble]

EDIT:  Also, apparently Muhammad Qaddafi (one of Qaddafi's sons captured by the rebels yesterday) escaped from house arrest this morning.  How the hell does that even happen?

Were they dumb enough to give him house arrest in his own home? I imagine that if they had he probably used some escape passage that was built in for emergencies.

[J. J.]

France24 finally awoke, according to Mathieu Mabin, serious and quite cautious reporter (usually even too much cautious to my taste, but maybe better too much than not enough), reporting from Tripoli right now, situation is quite messy, and some pro-Gadaffi units still fighting hard here or there, still according to him, most of the population is frightened at home (normal).

When you see that in Tunis it took about 3 days to put a kind of normal order in the city while the army was well organized and respected by the population, any situation that would more or less look like a quite situation in less than 3 days in Tripoli, in a non-state without the presence of an organized army would be a very good surprise.

Benwah, I' got say it.  The lady in your photo is cute.  I've always liked a woman in a hijab. 


Two things that bother me about the army.  It didn't mutiny, get killed, captured, or surrendered.  It is still out there someplace.  It didn't leave its weapons behind.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

France24 finally awoke, according to Mathieu Mabin, serious and quite cautious reporter (usually even too much cautious to my taste, but maybe better too much than not enough), reporting from Tripoli right now, situation is quite messy, and some pro-Gadaffi units still fighting hard here or there, still according to him, most of the population is frightened at home (normal).

When you see that in Tunis it took about 3 days to put a kind of normal order in the city while the army was well organized and respected by the population, any situation that would more or less look like a quite situation in less than 3 days in Tripoli, in a non-state without the presence of an organized army would be a very good surprise.

Benwah, I' got say it.  The lady in your photo is cute.  I've always liked a woman in a hijab. 


Two things that bother me about the army.  It didn't mutiny, get killed, captured, or surrendered.  It is still out there someplace.  It didn't leave its weapons behind.

Ah, I think we can easily agree at least on the hijab thing. . That is for unclassical hijab, indeed, all the fashion they can do with it otherwise is just lovely, and yes, can be quite appealing, I love video reports of streets of Cairo...

Well, other than that, as I tried to say, it isn't an election night in Sweden (damn, which state choosing, now even Scandinavia go violent...the world is sinking...ah well, remains the kiwis...they forbid foreign bananas, might explain), so it isn't an election night in NZ (damn some Maoris become more and more radical I heard there...), well, it's a revolutionary night made by weapons, and in a country that hadn't real structure, maybe not even in the army, especially if we believe in the importance of mercenaries, or just if you count die-hard guys that have nothing to lose and know they have no chance to be free in a non-Gaddafi Libya, so I wonder if you can even speak of 'an army', so waiting for a signing of an armistice somewhere in a wagon in the middle of a forest might be too much asking. In short, well, as I tried to say it won't be Spring Break tonight, but I would think it's mainly a matter of days, at the very worst of quite a few weeks.

Tonight, beside the mess in Tripoli, apparently mainly around Gaddafi's compounds (then he might still be in one, which would be a very good news) and the airport, only Syrthe area seems to still in Gaddafi's hands, and Al Jazeera even announced a scud has been shot from there, but while they can sometimes be on something, AJ very hot informations aren't always the best ones. Maybe Syrthe's area could take more time, who knows, but that isn't a big part of the country.

Ah, and, Sarkozy's been fast, he already invited NTC's PM in Paris on Wednesday.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Two things that bother me about the army.  It didn't mutiny, get killed, captured, or surrendered.  It is still out there someplace.  It didn't leave its weapons behind.

So they followed the "JJ after the 2008 election" strategy.

[J. J.]

I'd be very worried about a Somalia or guerrilla war situation.  I'd be very happy if there were a few brigades moving to the rebels, or conversely, surrendering and stacking their weapons.  Qaddafi will not be in charge of most of the county, but there may be a loyal cadre out there with guns, RPG's, bombs, and mortars.

Ironically, one of the people not getting into the victory parade mode is Obama.

[J. J.]

Two things that bother me about the army.  It didn't mutiny, get killed, captured, or surrendered.  It is still out there someplace.  It didn't leave its weapons behind.

So they followed the "JJ after the 2008 election" strategy.

No, since that strategy was let the victor act and destroy himself.  So far it's working.

Of course, the rebels might end up doing that as well.