Libya: Benghazi unrest, to Civil War, to a new government and Gaddafi's death.

[Beet]

US, Allies weigh no-fly zone

By continued trade & supply to the liberated areas, while keeping Tripoli under blockade for all but humanitarian supplies, other countries can starve Qaddafi. Right now the opposition does not seem strong enough to take Tripoli, the Libyan military was kept too weak by Qaddafi.

[Mr. Morden]

US, Allies weigh no-fly zone

By continued trade & supply to the liberated areas, while keeping Tripoli under blockade for all but humanitarian supplies, other countries can starve Qaddafi. Right now the opposition does not seem strong enough to take Tripoli, the Libyan military was kept too weak by Qaddafi.

I predict that if there's still a stalemate in three weeks, the Western powers will start arming the rebels, so that they can finish Qaddafi off.

[Beet]

US, Allies weigh no-fly zone

By continued trade & supply to the liberated areas, while keeping Tripoli under blockade for all but humanitarian supplies, other countries can starve Qaddafi. Right now the opposition does not seem strong enough to take Tripoli, the Libyan military was kept too weak by Qaddafi.

I predict that if there's still a stalemate in three weeks, the Western powers will start arming the rebels, so that they can finish Qaddafi off.

Agreed. If Qaddafi starts a counter-offensive, Western powers could move sooner with arms or even air strikes. Usually I'm against foreign intervention, but this is one case where limited action could make sense.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Gaddafi is out, obviously. Kind of tragicomical how the international community only joins the bandwagon once it is 100% clear that the Libyan people has done the job on their own.

Well, if he pulls through, we'd still need his oil, wouldn't we?

He's not in control of the oilfields any more, so we can throw him under a bus.

He still controls the oil fields in the west. The seeds are set for a long term civil war unless there are more defections and Gaddafi's side collapses. Which, hopefully is not too far away. However, if anyone is able to control the country after this is anyone's guess. Libya is really in trouble.

He controls the fields but has no way to sell the oil (as all of the pipelines are shut down, and he has no way to get the oil to ports; the oil ports are all controlled by the opposition). This is not going to be a long civil war. Gaddafi has no supporters, just mercenaries and his family, and the mercenaries will not stick around once he can't pay them (which will happen very soon if it isn't happening already). Even if he does, there's no way he can get supplies in and out of Tripoli, and he's continuing to lose control of more and more places closer and closer to the city. This is all but over.

Yeah, my point. He might technically control a couple of oilfields, but sanctions aside, he has no way of selling it to other countries. Most of the oilfields are either controlled by the rebels, or couldn't be useful on the international markets.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Gaddafi is out, obviously. Kind of tragicomical how the international community only joins the bandwagon once it is 100% clear that the Libyan people has done the job on their own.

Well, if he pulls through, we'd still need his oil, wouldn't we?

He's not in control of the oilfields any more, so we can throw him under a bus.

He still controls the oil fields in the west. The seeds are set for a long term civil war unless there are more defections and Gaddafi's side collapses. Which, hopefully is not too far away. However, if anyone is able to control the country after this is anyone's guess. Libya is really in trouble.

He controls the fields but has no way to sell the oil (as all of the pipelines are shut down, and he has no way to get the oil to ports; the oil ports are all controlled by the opposition). This is not going to be a long civil war. Gaddafi has no supporters, just mercenaries and his family, and the mercenaries will not stick around once he can't pay them (which will happen very soon if it isn't happening already). Even if he does, there's no way he can get supplies in and out of Tripoli, and he's continuing to lose control of more and more places closer and closer to the city. This is all but over.

Yeah, my point. He might technically control a couple of oilfields, but sanctions aside, he has no way of selling it to other countries. Most of the oilfields are either controlled by the rebels, or couldn't be useful on the international markets.

Also, the foreign workers which the Libyan oil industry depends on have almost all fled, so the oil fields can't produce very much.

[Insula Dei]

My favourite scenario so far is the one that has Egypt launch an invasion. This would a) kill of Gaddafi b) avoid the revolt being perceived as a Western affair c)cement the position of the temporary government in Egypt and prevent further riots there (which admittedly could backfire if it just leads to the army taking over command) and d) would probably make other regional leaders reconsider too extreme measures against future protests.

Slightly like the way it were the Vietnamese who got rid of Pol Pot.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New BBC headline: Libya protests: Gaddafi says 'all my people love me'

[Associate Justice PiT]

New BBC headline: Libya protests: Gaddafi says 'all my people love me'

     The protestors are not from real Libya, you see.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Reminds me of former Stasi head Erich Mielke who publicly declared his love for all the people in East Germany during a speech in November 1989.

[John Dibble]

New BBC headline: Libya protests: Gaddafi says 'all my people love me'

The protestors are not from real Libya, you see.

No - they are and they love him, it's just that they've been drugged by bin Laden so they don't realize it.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

No - they are and they love him, it's just that they've been drugged by bin Laden so they don't realize it.

Has he announce an embargo on Nescafé yet?

[Beet]

The counter-attack has started. It's civil war.

US readies military options

French planes with humanitarian supplies moving in

Once again this would be one of the rare cases where limited intervention might be justifiable and actually not backfire on the West if it were to intervene. Do not airstrike on urban areas, however keep Qadhafi's tanks from moving across the desert, keep his planes grounded.

[2952-0-0]

But is a western-backed No Fly Zone really useful for the rebel movement? It would prevent the rebels from using their captured air force to fly troops from Benghazi to the liberated parts of the west, and if the west makes an exemption for rebel aircraft then it does hurt the legitimacy of the rebels, and by extension the new Libyan government when it is formed. So ideally any No Fly Zone should be enforced by an Arab country with a strong air force, most likely Egypt.

[Mr. Morden]

Impose a no-fly zone around the Tripoli region only, and then sell the rebels some tanks at a deep discount (possibly via a third party like Egypt, if it helps with appearances).  That might be enough to end this.

[they don't love you like i love you]

One of the opposition leaders said that they would be OK with airstrikes if they continue to be unable to take Tripoli but not any land invasion. And I might have to give kudos to Australia since Rudd (now the Foreign Affairs minister) and the Defense minister are seriously talking about a no-fly zone enforcement.

[Sam Spade]

As noted above, the first sign that Gaddafi was in a much stronger position than most people seemed to think was the fact that the rebels didn't even attempt to mount an assault on Tripoli.  The counter-attacks are now even more proof.

Barring real Western involvement (such as arming the rebels or using military force), this armed conflict is going to continue for a while, and it becomes uncertain in my mind who will prevail.

[The Mikado]

As noted above, the first sign that Gaddafi was in a much stronger position than most people seemed to think was the fact that the rebels didn't even attempt to mount an assault on Tripoli.  The counter-attacks are now even more proof.

Barring real Western involvement (such as arming the rebels or using military force), this armed conflict is going to continue for a while, and it becomes uncertain in my mind who will prevail.

Except that none of the counterattacks have actually successfully retaken a city for Qaddafi?  That seems a pretty big hole in any argument revolving around the counterattacks.  If anything, Qaddafi's attack on Zawiah is proof of his impotence.

[Beet]

There are a couple of factors to consider. One, the early stages of a civil war are the most critical, so if this is what is indeed brewing, then the window of opportunity to rapidly influence a decisive result is closing quickly. Two, if the two sides are relatively evenly balanced in a stalemate, it would take more than a "no-fly zone" and taking out anti-aircraft batteries to break the stalemate. Sustained aerial strikes on entrenched positions with civilian collateral casualties ala Afghanistan 2001 would likely be necessary. Three, Turkey, Russia, France and Germany would not likely be on board. This would be a "coalition of the willing." The final consideration is the impact that the Libyan situation has on other protests in other countries. Just as Tunisia and Egypt influenced others, Libya may as well. If the country falls into a protracted civil war and humanitarian crisis, particularly if Qaddafi is able to re-take cities, this may have a chilling effect on protests elsewhere, particularly raising awareness of potential violent dynamics and the risks inherent in attempting a revolution. Such a chilling effect, at this point, would not be entirely unwelcome.

[Sam Spade]

As noted above, the first sign that Gaddafi was in a much stronger position than most people seemed to think was the fact that the rebels didn't even attempt to mount an assault on Tripoli.  The counter-attacks are now even more proof.

Barring real Western involvement (such as arming the rebels or using military force), this armed conflict is going to continue for a while, and it becomes uncertain in my mind who will prevail.

Except that none of the counterattacks have actually successfully retaken a city for Qaddafi?  That seems a pretty big hole in any argument revolving around the counterattacks.  If anything, Qaddafi's attack on Zawiah is proof of his impotence.

Your point is not unreasonable, but I suspect it will not be the only counterattack.  Meanwhile, the rebels have yet to even launch an attack on Tripoli.  In order for us to even start to think about an endgame to this, that must occur since Gaddafi's hold on Tripoli is quite strong.

I guess that so long as they manage to keep Gaddafi to Tripoli proper and a few surrounding areas, they can starve him out, but that will take time, and I'm sure they will have to repel a number of counterattacks, as well as keeping unity amongst themselves.

Which is why we'll probably see Western involvement soon enough.  So much for no blood for oil, though hopefully this will occur at a distance.

[Sam Spade]

There are a couple of factors to consider. One, the early stages of a civil war are the most critical, so if this is what is indeed brewing, then the window of opportunity to rapidly influence a decisive result is closing quickly. Two, if the two sides are relatively evenly balanced in a stalemate, it would take more than a "no-fly zone" and taking out anti-aircraft batteries to break the stalemate. Sustained aerial strikes on entrenched positions with civilian collateral casualties ala Afghanistan 2001 would likely be necessary. Three, Turkey, Russia, France and Germany would not likely be on board. This would be a "coalition of the willing." The final consideration is the impact that the Libyan situation has on other protests in other countries. Just as Tunisia and Egypt influenced others, Libya may as well. If the country falls into a protracted civil war and humanitarian crisis, particularly if Qaddafi is able to re-take cities, this may have a chilling effect on protests elsewhere, particularly raising awareness of potential violent dynamics and the risks inherent in attempting a revolution. Such a chilling effect, at this point, would not be entirely unwelcome.

No disagreements, though France and Germany may help indirectly.  For us wee people, we just wait and see, for now. 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

There are a couple of factors to consider. One, the early stages of a civil war are the most critical, so if this is what is indeed brewing, then the window of opportunity to rapidly influence a decisive result is closing quickly. Two, if the two sides are relatively evenly balanced in a stalemate, it would take more than a "no-fly zone" and taking out anti-aircraft batteries to break the stalemate. Sustained aerial strikes on entrenched positions with civilian collateral casualties ala Afghanistan 2001 would likely be necessary. Three, Turkey, Russia, France and Germany would not likely be on board. This would be a "coalition of the willing." The final consideration is the impact that the Libyan situation has on other protests in other countries. Just as Tunisia and Egypt influenced others, Libya may as well. If the country falls into a protracted civil war and humanitarian crisis, particularly if Qaddafi is able to re-take cities, this may have a chilling effect on protests elsewhere, particularly raising awareness of potential violent dynamics and the risks inherent in attempting a revolution. Such a chilling effect, at this point, would not be entirely unwelcome.

No disagreements, though France and Germany may help indirectly.  For us wee people, we just wait and see, for now. 

I wonder if they'd be more like to consider if it wasn't for the great Iraq mistake.

[Beet]

The military situation is hard to gauge, but looking at the map, one can say the pro-Qadhafi forces are trapped in Tripoli, but one could also say the anti-Qadhafi forces are split between the eastern portion and a couple of cities in the west, Al-Zawiya and Misrata. Of these, Al-Zawiya appears to be under siege and would need to be resupplied by sea. The danger for the opposition is that the two western cities are isolated and cut off. This seems unlikely for Misrata because of its size.

Link

"There are, in essence, two Libyan rebellions. A rebel army has risen up in the east, led by a provisional government in Benghazi. Independent uprisings have occurred in western towns—including Misrata, Libya's third-largest city, which lies 130 miles east of Tripoli, and Al-Zawiya, 30 miles to the capital's west.

In Zawiya, rebels controlled the center of the city Tuesday, while pro-government forces held the outskirts. Witnesses said pro-government forces have moved their checkpoints closer to central Al-Zawiya, increasing their control over several neighborhoods."

Strangely it reminds me of the Spanish civil war, especially with the use of mercenaries from other parts of Africa.

[The Mikado]

Huge explosions in Tripoli...wait, it was just a gas truck rolling over in a rather extreme traffic accident.

Of course, cause aside, it's still not the most pleasant thing to have to clean up.

[Mr. Morden]

Looks like Gaddafi is regaining momentum.  Zawiya's position in particular looks rather tenuous.  Of course, the pro-Gaddafi side probably can't take it without a huge amount of bloodshed, which probably makes Western intervention more likely.

Also, looks like there's about to be a big showdown near Ajdabiya:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704506004576173831133467692.html

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12618367

[Antonio the Sixth]

And the west is watching all this without doing anything...