Libya: Benghazi unrest, to Civil War, to a new government and Gaddafi's death.

[Stranger in a strange land]

This is the one where the west has the most influence. Gadaffi's personal guard who he's obviously going to need are basically nothing more than highly paid mercenaries, Blackwater-type thugs. And their payment comes from offshore bank accounts. If Gadaffi's assets were frozen, no more payment, and he's done. And if he cracks down bloodily, that becomes far more likely to happen. Guy is really stuck.

Back when he was a Soviet ally, his bodyguards were East Germans. In recent years, Gadaffi has become notorious for traveling with a coterie of attractive female bodyguards. One wonders how they'll fare in all of this. There have been lots of reports that the regime is using African mercenaries.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah with an army rebellion that's who he'll have to rely on. Cut off his funds, and he'll have no means of keeping control.

[2952-0-0]

Yeah with an army rebellion that's who he'll have to rely on. Cut off his funds, and he'll have no means of keeping control.

Useless. You and I know that the Ghaddafis have vaults full of $100 bills, gold, and silver under the palace. It has been reported that North Koreans are among the mercenaries, and that a plane full of mercenaries left for Libya from Zimbabwe (probably a mutual pact to suppress revolts between the world's worst dictators). Once it becomes clear the regime is finished the mercenaries will vanish. Unfortunately it will take a lot of blood to make the regime finished.

[The Ex-Factor]

So in the last day, army units defected and helped demonstrators seize control of Benghazi, various tribes have openly announced support for them, 3 or more ambassadors have resigned in protest, and government buildings and the state TV building are on fire in Tripoli. Things moved in a hurry....

[Mr. Morden]

Intrade:

Gaddafi to no longer be leader of Libya as of Dec. 31, 2011: 63.0

[afleitch]

BBC reporting that Gadaffi has 'fled' Tripoli

[Filuwaúrdjan]

BBC reporting that Gadaffi has 'fled' Tripoli

For real this time?

[afleitch]

BBC reporting that Gadaffi has 'fled' Tripoli

For real this time?

It's saying it's from 'confirmed sources'; the BBC are less trigger-happy when it comes to making such announcments than other news sources so I hope it's legitimate.

Good to see a handmade new versions of the Red Black Green flag being waved. It's missing the Islamic crescent so 'OMFG I5LAMIZTS!' should take note. Of course maybe they couldn't be arsed stitching one on.

[afleitch]

'East of the country now out of government hands' - BBC

[minionofmidas]

Somebody got a decent web translator? I'm a little too lazy, but all of you ought to read this interview.

http://www.fr-online.de/kultur/debatte/-niemand-spricht-von-demokratie-/-/1473340/7217492/-/index.html

[2952-0-0]

Al Jazeera says they're using fighter jets to bomb protesters in Tripoli. Holy shiat. This has never been used to crust anti-government protests anywhere. The guy's going down hard.

[afleitch]

William Hague has suggested Gaddafi may be on his way to Venezuela (?)

If so the Grauniad comments will go into melt down

[John Dibble]

William Hague has suggested Gaddafi may be on his way to Venezuela (?)

If so the Grauniad comments will go into melt down

Apparently Chavez's government has denied this. I think at this point it would be crazy even by his standards to give shelter to this guy - it would be a PR nightmare.

[Mr. Morden]

This story really makes it sound like the regime is on its last legs:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/22/world/africa/22libya.html?_r=1

[Mr. Morden]

Weird:

http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/africa/news/article_1620929.php/Libyan-jets-believed-to-be-defecting-land-in-Malta-Roundup

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Al Jazeera says they're using fighter jets to bomb protesters in Tripoli. Holy shiat. This has never been used to crust anti-government protests anywhere. The guy's going down hard.

What a fycking crazy regime.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

BBC:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Al Jazeera says they're using fighter jets to bomb protesters in Tripoli. Holy shiat. This has never been used to crust anti-government protests anywhere. The guy's going down hard.

What a fycking crazy regime.

Which the U.S. has mostly left alone.......

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As an aside, you have to be a little amused at the obvious horror of British politicians and diplomats to the way the regime is acting. I mean, we sold them (some of) the weapons, didn't we? Does the Foreign Office believe that weapons sold to dubious regimes (or legit ones in pursuit of dubious causes; c.f. India in the context of Kashmir) are only ever used in parades?

The same basic comment can be photocopied for other uses with the names of the relevant countries (both the sellers and the buyers) altered when appropriate.

[patrick1]

Al Jazeera says they're using fighter jets to bomb protesters in Tripoli. Holy shiat. This has never been used to crust anti-government protests anywhere. The guy's going down hard.

What a fycking crazy regime.

Yeah, some very gory images coming out.  They have been using heavy munitions. Hopefully the rest of the military turns on the regime and this can end ASAP.

[afleitch]

Al Jazeera says they're using fighter jets to bomb protesters in Tripoli. Holy shiat. This has never been used to crust anti-government protests anywhere. The guy's going down hard.

What a fycking crazy regime.

Which the U.S. has mostly left alone.......

Just to be fair.

Senator Richard Lugar - May 2006

    "Libya is a success story for American foreign policy that is the result of years of careful diplomacy aimed at bringing Libya into the mainstream.

    Although we still have areas of disagreement with the Libyan government, it has repeatedly renounced terrorism, substantially improved its human rights record, and initiated steps to encourage more foreign investment. It has opened up its weapons of mass destruction programs and is cooperating with the destruction of its chemical weapons facilities. In addition, it is providing substantial cooperation in the areas of counter-terrorism and regional security. The intensive U.S. diplomatic effort to convince Libya of the strategic benefits of this course can serve as a model for future successes with other countries of similar circumstance.

    As one of the authors of the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program, which has worked in cooperation with the states of the former Soviet Union to safeguard and destroy WMD arsenals, I am particularly hopeful about the opportunity to work with Libya to safely dismantle its chemical weapons programs. Since its renunciation of WMD in December 2003, Libya has signed the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, acceded to the Chemical Weapons Convention, and agreed to spot inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Libya has committed to eliminate all of its ballistic missiles beyond a 300-kilomater range with a payload of 500 kilograms and agreed to abide by Missile Technology Control Regime guidelines in the future. Libya played a major role in the exposure of Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan’s nuclear black market and continues to provide information on the Khan network. In early 2004, Libya worked closely with the United States on the dismantlement and transfer of the infrastructure of its nuclear weapons program, including their missile delivery system...

    The Bush Administration and Congress will continue to foster this transformation. In particular, we need to ensure that more Americans are able to travel to Libya to do business. In Tripoli, I encountered business people from China, India, Europe, and elsewhere, who were there to negotiate energy deals and other commercial arrangements. American companies should take similar steps to explore the possibilities of the Libyan market."

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

As an aside, you have to be a little amused at the obvious horror of British politicians and diplomats to the way the regime is acting. I mean, we sold them (some of) the weapons, didn't we? Does the Foreign Office believe that weapons sold to dubious regimes (or legit ones in pursuit of dubious causes; c.f. India in the context of Kashmir) are only ever used in parades?

The same basic comment can be photocopied for other uses with the names of the relevant countries (both the sellers and the buyers) altered when appropriate.

While I doubt Megrahi will go back to prison where he belongs for his role in Pan-Am 103 as a result of this, with the Gadaffis gone, it looks like the decision to send Megrahi back to Libya won't have gained BP much after all.  Heck, if BP's facilities in Libya take damage, it might even cost them.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Maybe Ireland will grant him asylum? There's going to be a hell of a lot of very sad people in Ireland and among Irish-Americans if Gadaffi goes down after all. Has Gerry Adams spoke in favor of him yet?

[SvenssonRS]

Maybe Ireland will grant him asylum? There's going to be a hell of a lot of very sad people in Ireland and among Irish-Americans if Gadaffi goes down after all. Has Gerry Adams spoke in favor of him yet?

I don't think there are many countries depraved enough out there to grant that sociopath asylum.

[afleitch]

While I doubt Megrahi will go back to prison where he belongs for his role in Pan-Am 103 as a result of this, with the Gadaffis gone, it looks like the decision to send Megrahi back to Libya won't have gained BP much after all.  Heck, if BP's facilities in Libya take damage, it might even cost them.

The decision had nothing to do with BP. It was a decision made on compassionate grounds made by the Scottish Government. In retrospect the Labour government favoured it (though they seem to have fogetten to tell their leader in Scotland...) but the British government had no jurisdiction over devolved matters pertaining to Scots Law.