Libya: Benghazi unrest, to Civil War, to a new government and Gaddafi's death.

[Platypus]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12477275

"Hundreds of people have clashed with police and pro-government supporters in the Libyan city of Benghazi, reports say.

Eyewitnesses told the BBC the overnight unrest followed the arrest of an outspoken critic of the government.

The lawyer was later said to have been released but the protests continued.

Pro-democracy protests have swept through several Arab countries in recent weeks, forcing the leaders of Tunisia and Egypt from power.

A call has been put out on the internet for protests across Libya on Thursday."

...

[So the Heroes Fall]

This is by far the worst regime that has had any type of unrest in it, so I'm really hoping this one goes.

[Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay]

Benghazi, 2nd city of the country, is in the East, the 'Egyptian part', the most anti-regime part of the country, and the city itself is seen as the most intellectual protesting city usually, which, outside of the fact that they are quite far from Tripoli, might also be because it would be the part of the country that receives the less money from oil.

Then so far apparently the protest has been the biggest in Eastern cities, but yesterday something quite important happen, a police station and a building of the 'Revolutionary Guards', 2 of the tough forces of this regime then, have been attacked in Zenten 145 kms down to Tripoli, then in the Western part, the 'Tunisian one'.

With its Tunisian and Egyptian part Libya could be still more inclined to go, but knowing the guy would lead the regime that could be quite tough there.

Nothing moved in Tripoli so far, but that's also the place in which people benefit the most of the money of the regime.

If something really happen there then it could take a Tunisian scenario, in which it is first the traditional places of protest in the less rich parts of the country that go, and then step by step other territories, and the capital in the end.

Could really become quite tough, just wish the best to them.

[Grumps]

This is by far the worst regime that has had any type of unrest in it, so I'm really hoping this one goes.

I'm not an expert on Libyan politics, but it appears the U.S. tolerates the Gaddafi regime now since he's piped down over the years.......do you think there are more stable elements who can seize power?

[Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay]

Libya already has the highest death number in a very few days. 84 dead people in 6 days, and yesterday we were only at about 20. And this is only from HRW which only has some observers in a very few cities in Libya.

Images from Tobruk (close to Egyptian border) were quite strong yesterday, big gathering and people making fall symbols of the regime, which would show that, like in other Arab countries, the fear has fallen, that remains in the East though, traditional region of protest, the fact to make pass those videos all over the Internet might make people more motivated in other parts of the country, but, indeed, yesterday night, Internet has been cut.

And I just hear that it become quite nasty in Benghazi, police opened fire on crowds during a mourning, 15 dead people, some report that some antiaircraft missiles have been used.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

This is by far the worst regime that has had any type of unrest in it, so I'm really hoping this one goes.

There are a lot of horrible regimes involved. I think the Saudis have Libya beat. If you're a woman, you might be better off living in North Korea than Saudi Arabia. 15/19 hijackers and Bin Laden himself are from Saudi Arabia. All and all, a pretty crappy country.

[Old Europe]

Libya already has the highest death number in a very few days. 84 dead people in 6 days, and yesterday we were only at about 20. And this is only from HRW which only has some observers in a very few cities in Libya.

Images from Tobruk (close to Egyptian border) were quite strong yesterday, big gathering and people making fall symbols of the regime, which would show that, like in other Arab countries, the fear has fallen, that remains in the East though, traditional region of protest, the fact to make pass those videos all over the Internet might make people more motivated in other parts of the country, but, indeed, yesterday night, Internet has been cut.

And I just hear that it become quite nasty in Benghazi, police opened fire on crowds during a mourning, 15 dead people, some report that some antiaircraft missiles have been used.

Events in Libya certainly prove again why anti-Western dictatorships are more likely to hang on than pro-Western ones. Since countries like Libya don't depend on good relations with the West anyway, they don't need to care whether crushing the protests by force is gonna annoy their non-existing allies in America/Europe. So, let's just put the protesters against the wall and be done with it...

[London Man]

Libya already has the highest death number in a very few days. 84 dead people in 6 days, and yesterday we were only at about 20. And this is only from HRW which only has some observers in a very few cities in Libya.

Images from Tobruk (close to Egyptian border) were quite strong yesterday, big gathering and people making fall symbols of the regime, which would show that, like in other Arab countries, the fear has fallen, that remains in the East though, traditional region of protest, the fact to make pass those videos all over the Internet might make people more motivated in other parts of the country, but, indeed, yesterday night, Internet has been cut.

And I just hear that it become quite nasty in Benghazi, police opened fire on crowds during a mourning, 15 dead people, some report that some antiaircraft missiles have been used.

Events in Libya certainly prove again why anti-Western dictatorships are more likely to hang on than pro-Western ones. Since countries like Libya don't depend on good relations with the West anyway, they don't need to care whether crushing the protests by force is gonna annoy their non-existing allies in America/Europe. So, let's just put the protesters against the wall and be done with it...

Anti-aircraft missiles? That's nasty.

Libya doesn't allow foreign journalists in; this means that it's extremely hard to get an accurate picture of what's happening there.

[Sibboleth]

The actual figures will be much higher than 84.

[London Man]

The actual figures will be much higher than 84.

I doubt we're ever going to know the precise figures.

[Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay]

According to HRW and hospital sources it's now 173 dead people since Tuesday.

Not sure what's the worth of it but yesterday a Libyan exiled in USA said that there were also fights and big repression in the west of the country too.

The potentiality of expected nastiness seems to be confirmed there.

I need to hear more about that but there would be some officials that would have protested against this, asking to stop the blood bath now. Hopefully all those death could at least create a trauma that would make people within the regime trying to stop it and to oppose Gaddafi.

Indeed Gaddafi answered to all European criticisms that if they continued interference comments he would stop to cooperate on regulation of immigration (surrealist attempt of deal in this context, but with Gaddafi you may surely expect everything). Hopefully he would find some actual resistance within his regime, the guy is in place for about 40 years now, and plans to give power to one of his sons, like in Egypt such thing might not be very pleasant to some guys of the political elite/army.

[GMantis]

It seems that at the moment the protests are in the east of the country, where Kadhafi has been hated for a long time. Until the protests spread to Tripoli, his regime will probably be not in too much danger.

This is by far the worst regime that has had any type of unrest in it, so I'm really hoping this one goes.

I also hope that the regime goes, but not Qaddafi personally...

Events in Libya certainly prove again why anti-Western dictatorships are more likely to hang on than pro-Western ones. Since countries like Libya don't depend on good relations with the West anyway, they don't need to care whether crushing the protests by force is gonna annoy their non-existing allies in America/Europe. So, let's just put the protesters against the wall and be done with it...

[/quote]
You are very much behind the times. Libya is at the moment quite a darling of the West. For example, remember the disgraceful way in which the UK released the Lockerbie bomber.


Note: The various spellings of the name of the tyrant pretending to rule in the name of the Libyan people are intentional.

[Sibboleth]

Actually that particular process started with the ludicrous trial. But the situation wrt Libya is still quite different; the regime does not need Western support to remain secure in power.

[Old Europe]

Trivia: With 41-and-a-half years in office, Gaddafi is currently the longest serving non-royal head of state in the world (and the third-longest serving if we count monarchs).

[SvenssonRS]

It's like Tunisia and Egypt set off a whole storeroom of dynamite.

[The Mikado]

Trivia: With 41-and-a-half years in office, Gaddafi is currently the longest serving non-royal head of state in the world (and the third-longest serving if we count monarchs).

Technically true, but it legitimizes the fiction that Castro is not really the leader of Cuba.

[IDS Judicial Overlord John Dibble]

There's some reports that an army unit has defected.

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/Libya-Latest-Up-To-120-Die-As-Libyan-Authorities-Arrest-Networks-Of-Foreign-Agents/Article/201102315937134?lpos=World_News_Top_Stories_Header_1&lid=ARTICLE_15937134_Libya_Latest%3A_Up_To_120_Die_As_Libyan_Authorities_Arrest_Networks_Of_Foreign_Agents

Earlier, members of a Libyan army unit told Benghazi residents they have defected and "liberated" the city from pro-Gaddafi forces.

Speaking from the city, a local man named Benali, told Sky News that members of the Libya's armed forces have defected and that anti-regime protesters are now in control of the city.

Habib al-Obaidi, who heads the intensive care unit at the main Al-Jalae hospital, appeared to confirm the reports, saying the "Thunderbolt" squad arrived at the hospital with soldiers who had been injured in clashes with Gaddafi's men.

"They are now saying that they have overpowered the Praetorian Guard and that they have joined the people's revolt," said Mr al-Obaidi.

Also of interest...

The news of further deaths comes as Libya's representative to the Arab League tendered his resignation in protest to "oppression against protesters".

[Judäischen Volksfront]

Quick question: what is "Nicolae Ceausescu" in Libyan Arabic?

[Old Europe]

Yeah, time to waste the f**ker.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Quick question: what is "Nicolae Ceausescu" in Libyan Arabic?

that would truly be awesome, but I don't expect Ghaddafi to be overthrown without a lot of bloodshed, probably even worse than Romania 1989, as anti-regime elements of the army duke it out with pro-regime elements, the security services, and mercenaries.

The Romanian parallel is a good one. Ghaddafi's regime was the most entrenched of the Arab dictatorships, and will therefore require the most extreme action to overthrow. It's probably also the one most independent of foreign support. In 1989, Ceausescu was not only the most repressive of the Warsaw Pact dictators, he was also the one most independent of Moscow, which partly explains why Romania had the most violent revolution of the East European states, and also had by far the most difficult transition to democracy afterward.

[phk]

Folks, Libya is up in arms. News media can't cover the story as they did in Egypt, because it is a far darker regime there. Just think about it: Libya has some of the most gorgeous coastlines in the world, and you'll get to vacation there without bankrolling the iron rule of a terrible, horrible dictator. So lend your thoughts and prayers for a Free Libya.

P.S. If Qaddafi gets overthrown it would be interesting to find out happened to Musa al-Sadr.

[King]

It's like Tunisia and Egypt set off a whole storeroom of dynamite.

I think Algeria was actually the first of the North Africa states to have protests (mid December?), though they haven't been as successful.

[Sam Spade]

I expect this to be quite bloody, regardless of how it ends up, probably just the start.  And will have a big impact on oil.

[IDS Judicial Overlord John Dibble]

It seems that at the moment the protests are in the east of the country, where Kadhafi has been hated for a long time. Until the protests spread to Tripoli, his regime will probably be not in too much danger.

SKADOOSH!

[So the Heroes Fall]

This is the one where the west has the most influence. Gadaffi's personal guard who he's obviously going to need are basically nothing more than highly paid mercenaries, Blackwater-type thugs. And their payment comes from offshore bank accounts. If Gadaffi's assets were frozen, no more payment, and he's done. And if he cracks down bloodily, that becomes far more likely to happen. Guy is really stuck.