Libya: Benghazi unrest, to Civil War, to a new government and Gaddafi's death.

[IDS Judicial Overlord John Dibble]

Confirmation that Gaddafi is indeed still in Tripoli:

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/02/2011225165641323716.html

[Zarn]

Those green profile pictures make me believe we are talking about a collectible card game... the actual words not withstanding.

You see, I'm making this real killer Ahmadinejad deck. I'm using a few "Motorcycle Cop" cards in it as well as a couple of "Death to America" cards. With those, do you think I need to add any "Curfew" cards? My friend had a Mubarak deck, and he played way too many "Curfew" cards. It was a terrible deck. I would rather leave room for something else, if I can. I really don't think they would do much good. I have Khamenei. Should I put him in the deck, instead?

[Sibboleth]

Those green profile pictures make me believe we are talking about a collectible card game... the actual words not withstanding.

That's the point; the images are from B3ta.

[Zarn]

Those green profile pictures make me believe we are talking about a collectible card game... the actual words not withstanding.

That's the point; the images are from B3ta.

Oh, I never heard of it.

Still, any suggestions for a deck? lol

[The Mikado]

Suggestions for a deck: the Bashir Assad deck is pretty solid (he has an elemental resistance to sanctions and an immunity to condemnation), though the secession card will automatically drain a third of his health, so be careful.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Well Obama is imposing sanctions: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2011/02/25/Obama-imposes-sanctions-against-Libya/UPI-61861298667236/

[SvenssonRS]

Well Obama is imposing sanctions: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2011/02/25/Obama-imposes-sanctions-against-Libya/UPI-61861298667236/

Useless gesture of the month. It's not like Gaddafi's going to give a damn.

[Mr. Morden]

Well Obama is imposing sanctions: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2011/02/25/Obama-imposes-sanctions-against-Libya/UPI-61861298667236/

Useless gesture of the month. It's not like Gaddafi's going to give a damn.

This whole episode puts into stark relief some of the absurdities of international relations and diplomatic-speak.

I understand why Qaddafi's kid would go on TV and do a Baghdad Bob in pretending that this is just some sort of minor disturbance in a few cities, and the government still has control of most of the country, but from Western leaders like Obama, Cameron, Sarkozy, etc., you're almost getting a milder version of that.  Where their public statements still refer to Qaddafi's regime as the government of Libya, and they urge the regime not to use force against protesters and so forth.

Uh, we're way past this being about a "protest movement".  It's a war.  A war in which the rebels have managed to take over most of the country outside of Tripoli.  Qaddafi is no longer the leader of Libya in any meaningful sense, and he probably never will be again.  And one side of the war is going to win and the other side is going to lose, and Obama, Cameron et al. would presumably like the rebels to win, and they'd like it to happen by most of Qaddafi's forces switching sides / giving up without a fight.

But of course, they can't say any of that, because acknowledging the opposition as a potential government of Libya this soon (even while the country's entire diplomatic corps seems to have sided with them!) and saying that Qaddafi's regime is done as the government of Libya might offend authoritarian allies and violates the norms of the Westphalian system and Western colonialism and blah blah blah.  Same kind of nonsense that leads to people refusing to say out loud that Taiwan is an independent country, even while treating it like one.

[So the Heroes Fall]

It sounds as if Gaddafi is preparing for the final battle: http://www.aolnews.com/2011/02/26/gadhafis-civilian-supporters-being-armed/

[SvenssonRS]

It sounds as if Gaddafi is preparing for the final battle: http://www.aolnews.com/2011/02/26/gadhafis-civilian-supporters-being-armed/

Do we know if Sabha's status has changed? I recall that being the city where Gaddafi's mercenaries were landing.

[Judäischen Volksfront]

I was waiting for this to appear: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l2BdL3g1kxI

[Ghyl Tarvoke]

I was waiting for this to appear: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l2BdL3g1kxI

You weren´t the only one...

[Judäischen Volksfront]

http://www.timesofmalta.com/articles/view/20110226/local/gaddafis-voluptuous-ukrainian-nurse-heading-home

Wow, even that Ukrainian nurse is fleeing!

[Mr. Morden]

Well, the international community seems to have suddenly woken up to the fact that Gaddafi is on his way out.  The UN Security Council voted to freeze Gaddafi's assets and refer him to the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12589434

and Obama called on Gaddafi to step down.

Meanwhile, Gaddafi's forces are starting to withdraw from certain neighborhoods within Tripoli, to consolidate their forces.  And a new interim government has been set up for post-Gaddafi Libya, with former justice minister Mustafa Mohamed Abud Al Jeleil taking the lead for now:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libyan_Interim_Government

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Tunisians and Egyptians are working to oust Gaddafi.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/26/AR2011022603808.html

[Mr. Morden]

[Gustaf]

Gaddafi is out, obviously. Kind of tragicomical how the international community only joins the bandwagon once it is 100% clear that the Libyan people has done the job on their own.

[Old Europe]

Gaddafi is out, obviously. Kind of tragicomical how the international community only joins the bandwagon once it is 100% clear that the Libyan people has done the job on their own.

Well, if he pulls through, we'd still need his oil, wouldn't we?

[opebo]

Gaddafi is out, obviously. Kind of tragicomical how the international community only joins the bandwagon once it is 100% clear that the Libyan people has done the job on their own.

Well, if he pulls through, we'd still need his oil, wouldn't we?

Precisely.  Nor is their any reason for us to prefer the replacement to Quadaffi.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Gaddafi is out, obviously. Kind of tragicomical how the international community only joins the bandwagon once it is 100% clear that the Libyan people has done the job on their own.

Well, if he pulls through, we'd still need his oil, wouldn't we?

He's not in control of the oilfields any more, so we can throw him under a bus.

[Beet]

Gaddafi is out, obviously. Kind of tragicomical how the international community only joins the bandwagon once it is 100% clear that the Libyan people has done the job on their own.

Well, if he pulls through, we'd still need his oil, wouldn't we?

He's not in control of the oilfields any more, so we can throw him under a bus.

He still controls the oil fields in the west. The seeds are set for a long term civil war unless there are more defections and Gaddafi's side collapses. Which, hopefully is not too far away. However, if anyone is able to control the country after this is anyone's guess. Libya is really in trouble.

[Verily]

Gaddafi is out, obviously. Kind of tragicomical how the international community only joins the bandwagon once it is 100% clear that the Libyan people has done the job on their own.

Well, if he pulls through, we'd still need his oil, wouldn't we?

He's not in control of the oilfields any more, so we can throw him under a bus.

He still controls the oil fields in the west. The seeds are set for a long term civil war unless there are more defections and Gaddafi's side collapses. Which, hopefully is not too far away. However, if anyone is able to control the country after this is anyone's guess. Libya is really in trouble.

He controls the fields but has no way to sell the oil (as all of the pipelines are shut down, and he has no way to get the oil to ports; the oil ports are all controlled by the opposition). This is not going to be a long civil war. Gaddafi has no supporters, just mercenaries and his family, and the mercenaries will not stick around once he can't pay them (which will happen very soon if it isn't happening already). Even if he does, there's no way he can get supplies in and out of Tripoli, and he's continuing to lose control of more and more places closer and closer to the city. This is all but over.

[Mr. Morden]

I'm still kind of unclear on how the paying of mercenaries works.  Do they just get a big fat check at the end of their service (assuming their side wins)?  Do they have a usable escape route in case things look bad, and they realize that they're going to lose?

[Verily]

I'm still kind of unclear on how the paying of mercenaries works.  Do they just get a big fat check at the end of their service (assuming their side wins)?  Do they have a usable escape route in case things look bad, and they realize that they're going to lose?

Probably depends on the mercenaries, but I would guess most demand pay by the day or the week or something. Otherwise it would be way too risky to get involved in something like this where you stand a good chance of dying and an even better chance of never getting paid.

[So the Heroes Fall]

I don't think the mercenaries would surrender though even if they weren't paid, in one city about 30 were captured and then burned alive. Of course if not paid they'd be fighting just to flee the country.