Libya: Benghazi unrest, to Civil War, to a new government and Gaddafi's death.

[Hash]

Well, now we can say honor is (partly) saved. Except for Germany which should really go f-ck itself now, what a disappointment.

Let's just hope it's not too late...

Brazil is also pretty disappointing in its abstention

Oh, yeah, and I guess that Qadaffi's secret of the Hungarian Dwarf is pretty damn bad if France wants to bomb the sh**t out him that fast.

Canada will send 6 planes for the no-fly zone.

Hahahahahalololololol hahaha. Thankfully we're not sending our wooden ships, or else they'd get there by 2013.

Ah, I can't say, CBC is more optimistic than you though, they say they'll be over Libya under 24h, that are some CF-18 exactly, and 100 to 200 men would participate.

I thought all our CF-18s were broken for a change. Hopefully Steve doesn't gain points out of this to make the idiots who live in this country forget his foreign policy failures otherwise.

[Insula Dei]

Libya just declared a total ceasefire.

[Silent Hunter]

Libya just declared a total ceasefire.

Now let's see if they actually do it.

[big bad fab]

Is that the Benghazi crowd chanting 'One, Two, Three, Something Sarkozy"?

Oh, it would take the Algerian slogan back, well the Algerian one is '1! 2! 3! Viva l'Algérie!', lovely if so, seems there is the '1 2 3' part yes, it could be 'Viva Sarkozy' then, dunno.

Oh, according to someone else they were precisely saying: '1! 2! 3! Merci Sarkozy!'.

They should say "Allez ! Allez ! Juppé !" .


The "ceasefire" is only a way for Gaddafi to try to save time, to delay Western strikes.
He knows that Super-Barack is very, very slow on the subject, that his friend Silvio won't help and he is delighted by Merkel's and Westerwelle's out-of-date "neutralism".
But he's weak: remember how quickly he drops his nuclear research in 2003-2004, worried by being next after Saddam ?

The only problem now is not to kill too many civilians and not too many from the "wrong" tribes... or, else, it will be civil war even after Gaddafi and partly against the "West".

[Middle-aged Europe]

The no-fly zone resolution (and Germany's position regarding it) caused a small, but interesting debate here that certainly transcends party lines. Angela Merkel, Guido Westerwelle, and the leaders of SPD, Greens, and Left almost unanimously oppose military action, while medium-level representatives often vigerously disagree.

A German politician who had already voiced support for a no-fly zone last week was conservative CDU youngster (and foreign policy spokesman) Philipp Mißfelder. Today, harsh criticism came from one of the more prominent representatives of the SPD's left wing, Heidemarie Wieczorek-Zeul: "There can't be abstentions when dealing with despots."

From what I can assess, the most "hawkish" top-level politican on the issue seems to be Renate Künast, parliamentary co-leader of the Greens, with some cautious support for the UN resolution. The statement of Green co-chairwoman Claudia Roth sounded a bit different though. I sense some conflict here.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Is that the Benghazi crowd chanting 'One, Two, Three, Something Sarkozy"?

Oh, it would take the Algerian slogan back, well the Algerian one is '1! 2! 3! Viva l'Algérie!', lovely if so, seems there is the '1 2 3' part yes, it could be 'Viva Sarkozy' then, dunno.

Oh, according to someone else they were precisely saying: '1! 2! 3! Merci Sarkozy!'.

They should say "Allez ! Allez ! Juppé !" .

Well, to be fair, that decision has been fully unilaterally taken by Sarkozy (apparently with our new totally unofficial special envoy, BHL). That being said, yeah, it's a total refreshment to see Juppé here and especially with a bigger power of initiative.

The "ceasefire" is only a way for Gaddafi to try to save time, to delay Western strikes.
He knows that Super-Barack is very, very slow on the subject, that his friend Silvio won't help and he is delighted by Merkel's and Westerwelle's out-of-date "neutralism".
But he's weak: remember how quickly he drops his nuclear research in 2003-2004, worried by being next after Saddam ?

Indeed this ceasefire can be a way to save time, medical sources announced Misrata (West) being bombed this morning, that being said the unilateral ceasefire would have been declared after it, and frankly Merkel could have saved her last declaration about that, she said it was an 'encouraging sign', I'm not sure how it is smart or just makes sense to give so early credit to Gaddafi given who he can be and what he already did, if she doesn't want to participate for any reason, fine, it's not a reason to try to find any sign especially totally hazardous ones to try to make your position look legitimate while we are in a total floating moment.

That being said, let's watch the acts of Gaddafi while preparing ourselves, we can certainly monitor whether their troops use this time to better organize themselves or not. I heard that some officials in Paris would say that they would anyways listen to what rebels say about it before intervening, which is the way to go since we intervene in their name, but France also said that indeed it stays very vigilant. I hear contradictory sounds from what the rebels say, according to a source one of their representation would say it is a 'big step', but according to an other source who would be the 'commandant of the insurrection', named Khalifa Heftir, he considers it a 'bluff'.

A meeting about that is currently on with PM, Juppé, and others, in Matignon. Also, on the diplomatic front, seems the summit with EU, AU, and Arab League, in which there will also be Ban Ki Moon, tomorrow in Paris, will be a big step, notably to know which Arab country would participate.

Maybe Gaddafi is trying to gain time, but it also permits the coalition to gain time too to organize things, because on the military front there will be several parts to coordinate, so far here have been what I've heard about who would join:

Italy and Spain propose some bases
Canada 6 CF-18
Denmark 6 F-16
Arab countries have still to say what they will do exactly.

Tomorrow with this summit would become the big day after which all could begin if nothing started before, in case some nasty things would begin before, apparently some French and UK planes could act immediately. Apparently the UK will send their Typhoons and their Tornados, Tornados were those the guys on the French forum about military counted on and which would be some good complementary with French planes in such an operation.

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Well, you never know, but really seems in this conflict, according to all what I could have seen from the West and the East, Libyans went a step beyond the tribal factor here, I'm not saying it would totally disappear, but seems they are really beyond that here, they would clearly be Libyans here.

Last news I heard:

Tunisia won't participate to any military operation. Well, understandable, they really don't have an army sized to intervene abroad, and they have home matters to deal with, they can't afford having to deal with some possibly heavy retaliations, they are the closest from Tripoli.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Ah, about the political situation in France about that, apparently nobody opposed it so far (which you can see as something when you know how strong anti-Sarkozysism can be well spread here). Let's also note the floating boat of Aubry, when Sarkozy first spoke of air strikes one week ago she kinda said it was 'daring', now she is glad of the resolution...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Belgium said it would propose some F-16 and some warships within a NATO operation.
Netherlands are studying a military participation too.

Also, the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle is still in Toulon, and if it has to participate, it wouldn't be there before Tuesday, but since Italy proposed its bases maybe it wouldn't even be used, but anyways, the French defensive frigate Forbin arrived close to Benghazi, it's a very modern one which can detect jets on 400 km around and which can immediately retaliate to any attack with a range of several hundreds of kilometers too.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So serious things are about to begin ?

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

So serious things are about to begin ?

Hey, not sure if there is even someone who knows it, I said how I saw it so far in a preceding post, if Gaddafi doesn't move, it could need the summit of tomorrow to move. Boats already there would be for ensuring defensive measures in between.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So serious things are about to begin ?

Hey, not sure if there is even someone who knows it, I said how I saw it so far in a preceding post, if Gaddafi doesn't move, it could need the summit of tomorrow to move. Boats already there would be for ensuring defensive measures in between.

Oh, I see. I've for the entire days that the operations would begin "in a few hours" but apparently they take things slowly. If this convinces Gaddafi to stop the slaughter, fine.

[opebo]

Imperialists.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

According to Al Jazeera, intense fights are taking place 50 km south-west from Benghazi, AFP reports a big blast and some anti-aircraft defense have been heard in Benghazi. Some bombings would be continuing on Zenten (west), Misrata, and Ajdabiya.

A few hours ago France said it was totally ready.
In the afternoon the rebels and the coalized forces coordinated some air strikes.
Some French and UK jets could take off before the summit of tomorrow in Paris.
The French base of Solenzara (southern Corsica) has been set in big emergency state this afternoon. Some planes coming from other parts of France could arrive there soon, some Awaks, some Rafales, some Mirages, and some refueler planes. A French base in Chad is on emergency state too.

Clinton would participate to the summit in Paris tomorrow.
France reaffirmed it didn't want of NATO.

[opebo]

Here we go again - Imperialist Europeans come to Africa and start slaughtering the natives. It is appalling.

[Insula Dei]

Belgium said it would propose some F-16 and some warships within a NATO operation.

Those are as it happens in Greece, too. So they can act within hours of a green light by the French/Americans/British axis.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Belgium said it would propose some F-16 and some warships within a NATO operation.

Those are as it happens in Greece, too. So they can act within hours of a green light by the French/Americans/British axis.

Yes, because moreover I have read afterward that it would also propose it out of a NATO operation, which France doesn't want.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

About other European countries:

Austria, Bulgaria and Romania don't want to take part of it.
Norway wants but hasn't said what it could do so far.

Then so far we would have in EU:

Does nothing:

Germany
Austria
Bulgaria
Romania

Would eventually do something:

Netherlands
Sweden - said it could do something if a NATO request comes

Proposes something:

Italy - proposes possibly 7 bases
Spain - 2 bases and some men are available
Belgium - some F16, some mines-hunters boats
Denmark - 6 F16
Norway - not sure but could be transportation planes

France:

Awacs
Mirages
Rafales
Refueler planes
Some defensive ships
The aircraft carrier could move too

UK:

Typhoons
Tornados
Some boats

Out of EU:

Canada - 6 CF-18, some men
Qatar - not clear yet

USA:

They have specified nothing precise so far, they would do that tomorrow. But the USS Enterprise is already there and they would have told other warships to go in the Mediterranean, they could also furnish some F-15 and F-16, and their means of military satellites and electromagnetic jamming against Libyan communications.

That is for the things I've heard of so far.

As I said earlier, France already has at least 1 defensive frigate close to Benghazi, the Forbin, UK already has two frigates around Libya too, the HMS Cumberland and the HMS Westminster.

The French and UK planes that could eventually take off before the summit would only be to show a sign of force according to some last declarations, no air strikes would be planned before the summit so far.

[Mr. Morden]

Here we go again - Imperialist Europeans come to Africa and start slaughtering the natives. It is appalling.

Yes, far better that Gaddafi hire some foreign mercenaries on his own dime, to slaughter the natives for him.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Does nothing:

Germany

The position of the German government doesn't even make sense, because it seems inconsistent with earlier policies. Angela Merkel was also much more supportive of the invasion of Iraq  than she is now regarding the establishment of a no-fly zone over Libya. Seems like she doesn't feel like it. Or maybe she does in fact try to keep the issue out of the ongoing state election campaigns. Otherwise it's a course of action that causes some serious head-scratching.

[Mr. Morden]

It increasingly sounds like it'll be the UK and France who are actually providing the combat planes and bombers, while the US is in more of a supporting role:

http://edition.cnn.com/2011/POLITICS/03/18/obama.no.fly/?hpt=T1

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[Filuwaúrdjan]

Benghazi is currently being stormed (not my words but those of opposition spokesmen). Curious definition of ceasefire.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Insula Dei]

We (as in: the Coalition of the Willing, for lack of a better term) should get our act together now, not when Benghazi has fallen to the Madman. What other Rebel strongholds are left? Only Tobruk?

[Franzl]

Not surprising that Germany, as usual, opposes military intervention.

[Silent Hunter]

We (as in: the Coalition of the Willing, for lack of a better term) should get our act together now, not when Benghazi has fallen to the Madman. What other Rebel strongholds are left? Only Tobruk?

Benghazi still looks broadly in rebel control. Hopefully we'll get intervention today.