Libya: Benghazi unrest, to Civil War, to a new government and Gaddafi's death.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Since Gaddafi is no longer the recognized Head of State of Libya, does that mean an assassination of him could be authorized?

[The Mikado]

The rebels are now willing to say that Qaddafi can stay in Libya unprosecuted if he steps down.  Talk of killing the guy is counterproductive.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Now we've changed our tune and said he doesn't have to leave Libya...

[J. J.]

I take it nobody had anytime in July in the pool?

[Peeperkorn]

I've never seen the point of this war, which obviously is not a matter of "human rights".

[CARLHAYDEN]

Recently the head of the rebel armed forces was murdered,

Details on the murder have been contradictory and sketchy.

Best bet at this time is that he was murdered by rivals in the rebel outfit.

This could be the turning point in the conflict.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Dario Lopez-Mills / AP

Benghazi, Libya --

The Libyan rebel leadership is showing signs of strain and disarray six months into its fight to oust Moammar Khadafy.

Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/08/09/MNMC1KLBC7.DTL#ixzz1Uc37t4Zf

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If the recent reports and rebel claims are true, big things could be happening. Tripoli would now be effectively cut off from supply lines.

[opebo]

The rebels are now willing to say that Qaddafi can stay in Libya unprosecuted if he steps down. 

Good old Gaddafi is too smart to believe anything these people say, Mikado.

 

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The rebels are now willing to say that Qaddafi can stay in Libya unprosecuted if he steps down. 

Good old Gaddafi is too smart to believe anything these people say, Mikado.

 

No reason to prosecute a corpse opebo.  If Qaddafi stays in Libya without being in charge, it will not be long before he is killed.

[J. J.]

The rebels are now willing to say that Qaddafi can stay in Libya unprosecuted if he steps down. 

Good old Gaddafi is too smart to believe anything these people say, Mikado.

 

No reason to prosecute a corpse opebo.  If Qaddafi stays in Libya without being in charge, it will not be long before he is killed.

I think Qaddafi realizes that.  I'm now wondering who will be in office longer, Qaddafi or Obama.

[Mr. Morden]

If the recent reports and rebel claims are true, big things could be happening. Tripoli would now be effectively cut off from supply lines.

Many of the news stories say that Tripoli is cut off, though the map suggests that they should still be able to re-supply from Chad or Sudan via Bani Walid and the south:





I mean, the Misrata-based rebels have yet to link up with the rebels in the western mountains.  Qaddafi still has an escape route....for the moment.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Are you sure these maps are up-to-date ? I'm surprised to see Ras Lanuf and Ben Jawad still under Gaddafi's control.

[Mr. Morden]

Are you sure these maps are up-to-date ? I'm surprised to see Ras Lanuf and Ben Jawad still under Gaddafi's control.

The maps are updated every day or two.  The frontline in the east is in Brega:

http://www.stardem.com/news/world/article_5fcc8fc5-64f6-5db8-95bb-6094bb4ec8f0.html

though the rebels now control most of it.  Qaddafi has controlled Ras Lanuf and Ben Jawad for many months now.

[RodPresident]

Two Brazilian Congressmen - Brizola Neto (PDT-RJ) and Protógenes Queiroz (PC do B-SP) - are trying to enter Libya. They're invited by Tripoli's government to a Congress about peace, but security conditions are retaining them on Tunisian border.

[Silent Hunter]

Many of the news stories say that Tripoli is cut off, though the map suggests that they should still be able to re-supply from Chad or Sudan via Bani Walid and the south:

That's a very long drive - and the roads would be covered by aircraft.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yep more territory fell to rebels today, including one of the largest oil refineries in the country.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I do agree though that Gaddafi would be an idiot to step down and stay in Libya. After all, Mubarak wasn't going to be prosecuted either. Even if that doesn't happen to Gaddafi, he'll be a sitting duck for anyone with a grudge/radical Islamists wanting a propaganda victory.

If Gaddafi wants to live and it looks like his goose is cooked, his only hope would be to take exile in whatever country would be willing to offer it to him (I suppose that list consists of Venezuela and Zimbabwe, maybe Belarus.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And it appears my prediction above may be correct as there are rumors circulating that Gaddafi is making plans to leave: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44192334/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

InTrade now gives Gaddafi a 77% chance of being gone by the end of August.

[opebo]

Damme it. I don't suppose there's any chance he could escape to Saudi Arabia?

[Hash]

Damme it. I don't suppose there's any chance he could escape to Saudi Arabia?

Considering that Qadhafi allegedly tried to arrange an assassination of the Saudi monarch and that he viscerally hates them, I kinda doubt it. Sorry your bloodthirsty tyrant won't make it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah as noted the only countries I could see him going into exile in are Venezuela and Zimbabwe. He would be a dumb to go to any country with a radical Islamist presence anyway as even out of power they'd still target him as a propaganda victory.

InTrade has dropped though with rumors being somewhat quelled, now at 31% to leave before the end of August. Still at almost 85% to leave before the end of the year though.

[opebo]

So the Men in Beards get another country. 

[Joe Republic]

So the Men in Beards get another country. 

I didn't know Al and Lewis were into global conquest.