Libya: Benghazi unrest, to Civil War, to a new government and Gaddafi's death.

[Silent Hunter]

Libya already has the highest death number in a very few days. 84 dead people in 6 days, and yesterday we were only at about 20. And this is only from HRW which only has some observers in a very few cities in Libya.

Images from Tobruk (close to Egyptian border) were quite strong yesterday, big gathering and people making fall symbols of the regime, which would show that, like in other Arab countries, the fear has fallen, that remains in the East though, traditional region of protest, the fact to make pass those videos all over the Internet might make people more motivated in other parts of the country, but, indeed, yesterday night, Internet has been cut.

And I just hear that it become quite nasty in Benghazi, police opened fire on crowds during a mourning, 15 dead people, some report that some antiaircraft missiles have been used.

Events in Libya certainly prove again why anti-Western dictatorships are more likely to hang on than pro-Western ones. Since countries like Libya don't depend on good relations with the West anyway, they don't need to care whether crushing the protests by force is gonna annoy their non-existing allies in America/Europe. So, let's just put the protesters against the wall and be done with it...

Anti-aircraft missiles? That's nasty.

Libya doesn't allow foreign journalists in; this means that it's extremely hard to get an accurate picture of what's happening there.

[Silent Hunter]

The actual figures will be much higher than 84.

I doubt we're ever going to know the precise figures.

[Silent Hunter]

This from another forum I frequent; one poster spotted that those two Libyan fighters were armed with rocket pods, leading credence to the pilots' claims.

[Silent Hunter]

Gaddafi's making a speech; it's a bit of a rant to put it mildly.

[Silent Hunter]

Quite an illuminating speech.

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Finally Gaddaffi has moved closer to the position of the demonstrators!

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In light of this bizarre statement, I'm wondering if there is a  weapon in the Libyan arsenal that hasn't been used yet against the protesters? The navy? Long range missiles?

There's reports that the navy have already been used.

[Silent Hunter]

A Libyan Su-22 has crashed after the two-man crew disobeyed orders to attack Benghazi; both crew are OK.

(BBC)

[Silent Hunter]

He hasn't taken Brega.

[Silent Hunter]

Well, according to Wikipedia, two U.S. warships are on their way to Libya through the Suez Canal. This being Wikipedia, however, I'd prefer a more reliable source.

BBC told me US warships were headed there. UK is was also getting something ready.

Yes, that's right: Kearsage and Ponce. Enterprise is in the Red Sea at the moment, seeing how things go.

[Silent Hunter]

If some countries attack Libya, Austria will not be among them:

A new Gallup poll shows 70% of Austrians are against a military intervention by our army.

http://www.oe24.at/welt/libyen/Oesterreich-kauft-Oel-von-Gaddafi/19530504

I would find it humorous, if Austria was the sole country to intervene.

Austria hasn't been the sole country to intervene anywhere since 1914.

There does appear to be a lack of Arab support for Western intervention of any kind. We have to admit that if this was Darfur or Congo, no one would be talking about a no fly zone, it would not even be in the news. The West needs to tread carefully here.

Aren't the Arab League in favour?

[Silent Hunter]

At this point, I think the only kind of outside support the opposition is likely to get is logistical, i.e., we supply them with ammo and better weapons.  Can you say, Stinger?

Yes, definitely... the rebels are currently equipped with Strela-2/SA-7s, which aren't brilliant MANPADS systems even against 1970s vintage Su-22 "Fitters". I'm also pretty sure that I saw some T-55s there...

Did you know that Russia had about $4bn of arms deals they were about to make to Libya?

[Silent Hunter]

I'm shocked with Mr. Sarkozy's hypocrysy.

I'm not shocked at any politican's hypocrisy.

[Silent Hunter]

It was a stupid suggestion in reaction to another dubious suggestion. A no-fly zone seems like something that likewise would require more intervention than just, I don't know, giving the rebels superior arms?

Gaddafi's main advantage right now is that he has air power and can bomb the crap out of rebel positions with near impunity. Short of giving them fighter jets in sufficient number to fight off the bombers you won't really solve the problem this way because it would require us to give up some of our most expensive equipment as well as require us to give rebels a minimum of months of training that it doesn't look like they have in order to use that equipment effectively. Just giving them guns might help them, but without the power to control the air the rebels would still be at a significant disadvantage. Also, the disorganized nature of the rebel forces makes it hard to maintain control of weapons and there is a legitimate worry that weapons currently in rebel hands may end up on the black market after the war is over.

A no-fly zone doesn't require us to set one foot in Libya, it just takes away Gaddafi's big advantage. The rebels have shown that they are able to fight battles on the ground, so it would be a significant gain for them to not have to worry about fighting enemies in the air.

     My issue is that I'm unclear on how a no-fly zone would work, exactly. When I hear about it I think of ships firing missiles at any military planes that might be launched from Libyan soil, but I surmise that it is something not so primitive in its implementation.

It would involve more than that; possibly F-22s flying around inside Libya; attacks on SAM sites that lock on to the enforcing aircraft, possibly even a few Tomahawks.

[Silent Hunter]

Yeah, France is the only Western country that is acting even somewhat bravely. Everyone else, Obama included, is cowardly allowing the stage to be set for a brutal massacre of the opposition and many years of even harsher tyranny and bloodshed.

What about the UK?

[Silent Hunter]

Ten minutes to go...

[Silent Hunter]

I think it's passed.

[Silent Hunter]

It's passed: 10 for, 0 against, 5 abstentions.

Let's hope this is a short war.

[Silent Hunter]

Libya just declared a total ceasefire.

Now let's see if they actually do it.

[Silent Hunter]

We (as in: the Coalition of the Willing, for lack of a better term) should get our act together now, not when Benghazi has fallen to the Madman. What other Rebel strongholds are left? Only Tobruk?

Benghazi still looks broadly in rebel control. Hopefully we'll get intervention today.

[Silent Hunter]

Confirmed as a rebel aircraft. Looks to be a MiG-23; there were reports they had one. The pilot ejected before impact.

[Silent Hunter]

Sounds like a randomised call sign to me.

Thanks for letting us know.

[Silent Hunter]

Obama likes his tomahawks and drones, doesn't he?

Most US presidents do; it's an effective way of destroying targets without putting aircrew at risk,

[Silent Hunter]

Do the French/British have any ground attach aircraft like the A-10?

Not specifically like that, no. However, the Tornado GR4 can be used in that role.

[Silent Hunter]

There are reports that an American plane crashed in Libya, due to some technical problem (it wasn't shot down).

Yes, an F-15E Strike Eagle. Both pilots appear to be safe and in rebel hands.

[Silent Hunter]

ABC reports that a Libyan Galeb has been shot down by French fighters.

[Silent Hunter]

Btw, students of military history will know that this strategy was effectively used by the Soviets at Stalingrad against the German blitzkrieg.

Students of military history will also remember that Libya was the scene of a lot of back and forth movement during the North Africa campaign of 1940 to 1943. You've also got very open country and very few roads in a desert - it's a nightmare for supply lines.