Libya: Benghazi unrest, to Civil War, to a new government and Gaddafi's death.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Benghazi, 2nd city of the country, is in the East, the 'Egyptian part', the most anti-regime part of the country, and the city itself is seen as the most intellectual protesting city usually, which, outside of the fact that they are quite far from Tripoli, might also be because it would be the part of the country that receives the less money from oil.

Then so far apparently the protest has been the biggest in Eastern cities, but yesterday something quite important happen, a police station and a building of the 'Revolutionary Guards', 2 of the tough forces of this regime then, have been attacked in Zenten 145 kms down to Tripoli, then in the Western part, the 'Tunisian one'.

With its Tunisian and Egyptian part Libya could be still more inclined to go, but knowing the guy would lead the regime that could be quite tough there.

Nothing moved in Tripoli so far, but that's also the place in which people benefit the most of the money of the regime.

If something really happen there then it could take a Tunisian scenario, in which it is first the traditional places of protest in the less rich parts of the country that go, and then step by step other territories, and the capital in the end.

Could really become quite tough, just wish the best to them.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Libya already has the highest death number in a very few days. 84 dead people in 6 days, and yesterday we were only at about 20. And this is only from HRW which only has some observers in a very few cities in Libya.

Images from Tobruk (close to Egyptian border) were quite strong yesterday, big gathering and people making fall symbols of the regime, which would show that, like in other Arab countries, the fear has fallen, that remains in the East though, traditional region of protest, the fact to make pass those videos all over the Internet might make people more motivated in other parts of the country, but, indeed, yesterday night, Internet has been cut.

And I just hear that it become quite nasty in Benghazi, police opened fire on crowds during a mourning, 15 dead people, some report that some antiaircraft missiles have been used.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

According to HRW and hospital sources it's now 173 dead people since Tuesday.

Not sure what's the worth of it but yesterday a Libyan exiled in USA said that there were also fights and big repression in the west of the country too.

The potentiality of expected nastiness seems to be confirmed there.

I need to hear more about that but there would be some officials that would have protested against this, asking to stop the blood bath now. Hopefully all those death could at least create a trauma that would make people within the regime trying to stop it and to oppose Gaddafi.

Indeed Gaddafi answered to all European criticisms that if they continued interference comments he would stop to cooperate on regulation of immigration (surrealist attempt of deal in this context, but with Gaddafi you may surely expect everything). Hopefully he would find some actual resistance within his regime, the guy is in place for about 40 years now, and plans to give power to one of his sons, like in Egypt such thing might not be very pleasant to some guys of the political elite/army.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Oh wow, turns so nasty, but Saif Al Islam Gaddafi told it yesterday evening: civil war till the last bullet.

Gaddafi (father) has to speak soon I heard.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Also, from a civilian interviewed a few mins ago on France24, he described quite precisely how fight after fight Benghazi is totally fallen in the hands of protesters, apparently with the help of the army, to the point that civilians are now trying to set order there.

Also, big mess on the Tunisian border, besides the fact that several thousand of refugees are arriving on the border, Gaddafi militias would be trying to spread terror there too.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

And according to Austrian army, the plane that should have taken Austrian citizens can't land, Libyan airspace would be shut.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Ah, and, Libyan TV:

http://wwitv.com/tv_channels/b5550.htm

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

It's like Tunisia and Egypt set off a whole storeroom of dynamite.

I think Algeria was actually the first of the North Africa states to have protests (mid December?), though they haven't been as successful.

No, was Tunisia, which started after the immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi on the 17th of December. One week of riots took place in Algeria in the beginning of January, after the protest was seriously taking Tunisia, to be fair riots became quite common in Algeria (about 10,000 in 2010 for example) but that week was quite violent and widespread. It's kinda one of the problem of Algeria which spontaneously uses to go toward riots rather than protest gathering, but that's an other topic.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Labour's Douglas Alexander woeful on Newsnight Infact borderline disgusting in refusing to  to call for Gadaffi to stop killing civilians, or condemning the sale £200 million of crowd control equipment to Libya last year.

Congrats, beating France in Tunisia.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

So bloody situation indeed will help to excite all passions, apparently a big preacher is calling for the army to kill Gaddafi.

And besides bombing people, army seems to have taken the lesson from Benghazi where protesters took control of arms, and bombs arms stocks.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

And according to Austrian army, the plane that should have taken Austrian citizens can't land, Libyan airspace would be shut.

.k, Austrian army now says that it is not shut, and it was only Tripoli.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

So bloody situation indeed will help to excite all passions, apparently a big preacher is calling for the army to kill Gaddafi.

That may be that chap that Ken Livingstone is buddies with, I forget his name.

I don't know if that matches, but his name is Cheikh Youssef Al-Qardawi (85 years), and is presented as a very influential Arab preacher, and he made his call on Al Jazeera.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

So bloody situation indeed will help to excite all passions, apparently a big preacher is calling for the army to kill Gaddafi.

That may be that chap that Ken Livingstone is buddies with, I forget his name.

I don't know if that matches, but his name is Cheikh Youssef Al-Qardawi (85 years), and is presented as a very influential Arab preacher, and he made his call on Al Jazeera.

That's him! Ken was supposed to host him in London when he was mayor but unfortunately for Ken it's not really acceptable to officially host a man who calls for gays to be killed and who praises Hitler's anti-semitism.

Ah well, then I hope he is as 'very influential' as Western media pretend the old guards of MB is.

Anyhow, interesting, in Benghazi, the flags waving are those of the monarchy chased by Gaddafi.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Interesting similarity of events.

Just a few bits about Gaddafi though, he ironically accused some Arab organizations in the country to be the source of all of this, and then he also went with an hostage taking from 'Al Qaeda', I heard nothing about the West, wouldn't be surprised he would have used it too though. Ah and, about the hometown, Sirte, during the day an NGO said it was fallen in the hands of protesters, though AFP called people there and they have been told it was calm, dunno then.

Last news:

AFP reports the call of UN Libyan diplomats for the army to oust Gaddafi 'to organize themselves and to walk on Tripoli to cut the head of the snake'.

He's clearly done now, the point being how long will it take, and what will it take. For the flee, not sure he would have a lot of choices of destination with what just happened.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Impressive speech by its pathetic level. Would pretty much show what an over-panicked human being who has nothing to lose can display to try to gain support.

Well, he basically called for a totally new dreaming country indeed, and in a total civil war in the same time with his 'committees of protection', hopefully he won't find a lot of support.

The guy wanna appear tough and martyr and all, but, unlike Mubarak who seemed actually tough, I would wonder whether he would be actually as brave as that, that being said as stated yesterday foreign destinations for him would be tiny. I wouldn't see him able for suicide as well. The guy will certainly need to be caught by someone, he could try to flee in his own country too, in a Saddam Hussein way, somewhere in his tribe, and why not posting videos/messages in a Bin Laden way till he be caught (from where was he speaking here by the way?? seemed like an half-burned building). Hope he be caught, the soonest possible, an international trial would 'something' with him though.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Lol, France24 stopped the broadcasting of the speech for about 10 mins now and he's still speaking.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

We'll be talking about this "speech" in 100 years, folks.

I agree, it could reach an historical level.

Also, about news, a France2 (2nd French TV channel) journalists team has apparently been the 1st journalists to enter in Libya, by the east, monarchy flags everywhere from the Egyptian border to Tobruk, and Tobruk is apparently fallen in the hands of protesters.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Can anyone here see a Lybian Hama in the next few days? Or is Gadaffi already past that point of authority and are his mercenaries the only things left between Lybia and the end of his regime?


EDIT: Am I he only one hearing rumours about Italian mercenaries?

Tomorrow would answer the 1st question.

Didn't hear about Italian mercenaries, well, mercenaries would be independent by definition anyways. Anyhow, from all the records I heard seems that, yeah, besides the bombing of the most rebellious districts of Tripoli, and the fact that some of the shootings would have been made from helicopters, seems that most of shootings would have been blindly made by mercenaries with war weapons.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

In light of this bizarre statement, I'm wondering if there is a  weapon in the Libyan arsenal that hasn't been used yet against the protesters? The navy? Long range missiles?

Perhaps he's just pissed off with himself for abandoning his WMD programme? Or maybe he was lying when he told the world that he had done so.

Maybe we should ask this guy;



Where is our glorious Middle East Peace Envoy anyway?

Or that one on the left:



'You let me be a Superman by saving the 7 Bulgarian nurses (and the Palestinian doctor, we care less but while we're at it) jailed and tortured for years just 2 months after I've been elected and just before taking my summer vacations, with my wife appearing as a Wonder Woman, and you'll be allowed to have some French civilian nuclear technologies into your hands, the past is the past after all, we can as well forget it'

'Hmm, .k, but more of that I want a full trip in Paris, about one week, I want to appear like king in the city, I want the Louvre for me and my staff alone, and I want to put my big Bedouin tent into the garden of your Presidential Palace, .k?'

'Well, deal'...'Me and my wife saved the nurses!!'



(find the French girl)

Ah, and, speaking of glorious diplomatic people, it has been dug out an interview of our new nonetheless glorious ambassador in Tunisia, Boris 'get the trade contracts!-you are so stupid to ask questions about what our Foreign Affairs Minister did in Tunisia during unrest!-I want to implement a new philosophy!-am I not sexy in swim suit?' Boillon saying on a big daily evening talk show a few months ago while he was still ambassador in Baghdad:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MURjPnCk-WQ

Journalist: Gaddafi calls you 'my son'.

B.B.: 'well, yes'

People around the table: 'Wow'

B.B.: 'Well, let's stop preconceived ideas, Gaddafi has maybe in the past been a terrorist'

Journalist: 'Maybe??'

B.B.: 'Ok, not maybe, he has been a terrorist, but all of this is past now, he has made his self-criticism, we can all do mistakes'

Arab world will love to discover the 'new philosophy' of French diplomacy of our cute BB.



The guy who is a French ambassador for a while now still had this pic on the profile of a kind of French facebook. New philosophy all the way!

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Who else agrees that alcohol being illegal in Libya is enough justification to overthrow the government and kill anyone who supports it?

Whatever government replaces the current one will not legalize alcohol.

A revolution without dancing is not a revolution worth having.

Oh they are well dancing and singing in Tobruk right now.

A Libyan warship defects to Malta:

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2011/02/libya-warship-defects-to-malta.html

Yeah, heard that yesterday night. I just heard that the chief of the army would have joined the protest too, but it isn't confirmed, only comes from some blogs. Some people say he would only have the Air Force with him, and well, mercenaries.

About the post-Gaddafi times, there is no state system there, I would hope it wouldn't turn into a civil war between tribes. The tribal aspect would still be important since Gaddafi didn't even try to change that, and the country would also be divided in 2 cultural spheres (Tunisian and Egyptian), but for example, in Benghazi, historically the most protesting city against central power, when unrest began there, I heard that one of the big slogan was simply 'LYBIA! LIBYA! LIBYA!'. Who knows, maybe it could turn into a kind of UAE, the 'United Tribes of Libya', dunno, maybe something like this under a symbolic monarchy. Libya has always been my biggest interrogation mark for a post-revolution time, I don't know much about the reality of Islamist movements there too, but as they have apparently been arrested a lot under Gaddafi, I would surprised they wouldn't count, especially in a country which apparently didn't care much about developing something beyond its traditional schemes, although Gaddafi regime apparently also procured some education, some alphabetization at least. I would hope Islamist movements follow the 'Mediterranean Islamist AKP trend'.

'New flag'...



...makes me think to an other flag...



I hope it won't become the 'Afghanistan/KSA of Mediterranea', but well, all of this is conjectures so far, they still have to get rid of their current regime and the outcome of it would also certainly be important for the future of the country, may they find the best ways possible.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

After Justice one yesterday, Interior Ministry officially resigned, and officially joined the '17th of February Revolution'.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

The real question is whether the other western cities will fall into the rebels' control, and, if not, if the Cyrenaicans will push further west and eventually topple Gaddafi. (Or if some outside power decides intervening is a good idea, or someone assassinates Gaddafi, or something else equivalently random.)

I would think the real question could be Tripoli only, and yeah, if people from the army don't join protesters there, rebels from the east and soldiers who joined them could organize a 'liberation march' toward Tripoli. Assassination wouldn't help much for the fall of the regime imo, Selif is always here and promised 'rivers of blood'. Outside power intervention would only happen if this really last long.

Such a march could as well result in a Tribes fight that could have consequences on the long term, or hopefully in a better unification of the country for the future.

Best way would be some guys in the army take control of what remains of power to Gaddafi, and optimally they catch everybody that has to be caught there before they flee in the desert.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Well, now apparently Gaddafi's army would be close to march from Aljabiya on Benghazi and Tobruk in the same time.

Personally I'd be glad that the countries which knew a revolution, Tunisia, and especially Egypt of which the Air Force is a prestigious corps, propose to do something to militarily help the opposition against Gaddafi murdering its own people, symbolically it would be great. That being said, being taken in revolutionary transitions themselves maybe they, military officials at least, are less inclined to see their country engaged in a war, since Gaddafi could retaliate on them, but still symbolically would be the best.

Now, several ways, either we let Gaddafi's troops reaching Benghazi and Tobruk, hopping that they are defeated by rebels there (who knows, people won't let those big places of them being taken that easily) but it's taking the risk that Air Force does massive war crimes, or we begin to see what we can do to stop that (apparently literally) crazy guy and his maybe not less literally crazy sons which would be the only supports with a bunch of military officials and his tribe (about 100,000 people), well present in Tripoli, that he would still have in the country.

Personally, if Tunisia and especially Egypt does nothing, I'd support a military intervention there since the demand comes from what seems to be a respected representation of the rebel area and that it would stop some guys who already did a lot of war crimes and who maintained its people under a violent regime. If UN blocks it, I personally wouldn't care, the UN Security Council being totally unfair it has never been a reference to me, letting US and NATO out of this would be preferable too, symbolically they have too much screwed around in the world. Then why not a EU force, could be a good occasion to try to set something interesting in that realm in the Union, and if EU doesn't want, well France and UK seem of for this.

The fact France been the 1st to officially propose it kinda annoys me though, well, as I said I would support it, but each time I saw Sarkozy doing something I'd agree with, support, or find interesting, I feel like 'oh no, why is that him who took such or such initiative, he will find a way to screw it' (well, yes, he screwed most of what he touched...). But well, I'd still support it. It would have to be very carefully been done though, in order that it doesn't turn into a full scale war between France/whatever country goes into it and Libya, he has about 200 planes (which would be one of the reason it would be better that only a bunch of countries go into it, for example, if you engage either NATO or EU, you could have retaliations on Italy, as part of those even if not acting). Then I hope for once Sarkozy wouldn't screw around if he is in charge of something here, and if our officials establish serious plans saying it has more chances to be successful and screwed, I'd support.

Optimally, Tunisia and Egypt could try to do something and EU/NATO could promise them some support if they are in difficulty. Anyways, if a decision has to be taken, it could have to be in a very short term, Benghazi and Tobruk seem to clearly be the next step of army.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Alain Juppé, our new Foreign Affairs Minister (and finally someone interesting and efficient in some of our govts for years, glad this is the one that represents France abroad), made a declaration in the Assemblée Nationale this afternoon, he said that France, UK, and Lebanon were actively working on a UN resolution that they will present soon to the UN SC. Amongst other things this resolution will ask for the permission of an intervention there. And, important, he said that 'some Arab countries' gave their agreement for an active participation in this, which apparently also was a condition asked by Russia to determine their position.

Then so far, seems to me that here could be the possibilities:

Very optimistic option:

Something I haven't imagined and that would a good surprise.

Most possible optimistic solution:

The rebels succeed in defeating Gaddafi's ground army in Benghazi. They would fight over tough there, they wouldn't lose it easily it would only need heavy Air Force strike. And that could, yes, be a Stalingrad (hopefully in less nasty), because then, according to a reporter from itélé who's in the East, Gaddafi's army would have let very few men in each conquered city in the East, and if the army is defeated in Benghazi one part of it could surrender and join the rebels too. For example according to that same reporter, 2 days ago, 4 brigades of 1,000 men who were faithful to Gaddafi so far would have stopped to fight for him. And if something like this happen, the bunch of big military officials, who would be less crazy than the guy they still follow, could consider they are in a f**ed up situation and decide to use army against the guy and the sons, and optimally they catch them and they finish tried. Also, about the use of the Air Force, according to that same reporter of itélé, Gaddafi allegedly take in hostage the families of pilots if they disobey, then it would really take so big military officials who have some actual impacts on the hierarchy of the different Libyan forces to decide to stop all that craziness and perversity. That way, Libyans would have gained their freedom alone.

Other optimistic and quite positive option:

UN SC is ok for intervention before big fights happen in Benghazi, foreign military intervention, hopefully it happens well, and it's the beginning of the end for Gaddafi.

Less optimistic option:

Big fights in Benghazi, and odds that it turns more into a Grozni than a Stalingrad, and then other countries can't do other thing than, intervening. Yeah, Sarkozy almost promised an intervention to the Libyans who came in Paris, I can't imagine he tries nothing if it really turns bad in Benghazi, no matter what the UN could have said. In such an emergency situation I guess he could count on UK would followed France's position from the beginning and on the Arab countries that would have given their agreement to intervene according to Juppé.

Pessimistic option:

This is not an option.

Well, Juppé also said that he had 'good reasons' to hope for a good outcome in what could happen in UN. All is about time now.

I hope this, which I must say kinda does something to me, will be more associated with success and pride than fail and shame:



Today, people demonstrated with French signs in Benghazi.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Juppé is in UN to push the resolution.
France says it is 'convinced' that it would pass.
It would be voted in the end of the day in New-York.
Military operations could begin a matter of hours after the vote.

Apparently the resolution will be about, sanctions, a no-fly-zone, and it could even include some further military operations, like extended air strikes, which is part of what Libyans who came in Paris asked. Since there would be some Arab countries in it, Russia could accept, all would be about China, of which I have no clue about the position. If it's blocked, once again, I can't imagine France does nothing beyond it. Ah and, let's note the 180° in 12 hours of the USA, passing from an all mild position to Susan Rice who goes all tough, well, fine.

At least France is taking a leadership role on this (though their long historic bad blood with CQ dating back to the Chad War is noted...France never liked CQ talking of Libya replacing France as the big dog in Africa).

(What do you mean by CQ?). Well, yes, France already has an experience of intervention in Libya where it bombed an Air Force base in the south in 1986 to prevent Gaddafi invading the Chad, with which we had a defense agreement. And well, speaking about France in Africa and turning down an Air Force, France has a kind of 'experience' with the 'Côte d'Ivoire experience', in 2004 during the conflict between the power and the rebels, some planes of the Ivorian army bombs a French military camp, 9 soldiers dead, in like the 48 hours that followed Chirac gave the order to destroy the whole Ivorian Air Force, though we had bases in the country, which isn't the case in Libya. Alone we have 1 aircraft carrier (well, while not so old, that is when it isn't 'out for technical problems'), and well, according to a news report I saw once, we would have all kinds of necessary military equipment to organize a no-fly zone. But if Egypt participates it could become a good logistic base. Yesterday Italy said it didn't want of it, not sure they have done a 180° like the USA in the meantime, NATO seems more hot today than the days before though. Let's see.

I feel ashamed of being a westerner. I really wish our political leaders were born in Libya, that's all they deserve.

Well, it might be your Italian part speaking more than your French part here, because, to be fair, France had quite the perfect timing here. It began to seriously move on the 10th, when Gaddafi was seriously conquering back, before everybody was hopping the opposition would march on Tripoli alone, avoiding interference, which states always try to avoid for understandable reasons, it immediately spoke of air strikes, and it did it in response to an official demand of the Transition Council in Paris, was harder to do better actually. Now time could be short, yeah, it took time to move other countries, but hey, let's hope something happens soon, for once that France has interesting positions. Oh, and, about why France could be forth here, it could be thanks to Bernard Henry Lévy, not sure yet, but that could be him that has put the Transition Council in link with Paris, thus why they would have come here, and well he was in the presidential office with them and the President (speaking about that, he so smartly and proudly very loudly said to TV cameras what were the strategic positions the rebels wanted to see destroyed, let's hope it doesn't have negative impacts).

Wow, I'm supporting something promoted by Sarkozy, Cameron...and Bernard Henry Lévy!! Oh wow, it's exotic.

That being said, that Bernard is really cute sometimes:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fb_z-qa7MsA

Go Bernard!