Libya: Benghazi unrest, to Civil War, to a new government and Gaddafi's death.

[The Mikado]

Trivia: With 41-and-a-half years in office, Gaddafi is currently the longest serving non-royal head of state in the world (and the third-longest serving if we count monarchs).

Technically true, but it legitimizes the fiction that Castro is not really the leader of Cuba.

[The Mikado]

The only guarantee, as I posted last night, is that it will be bloody and oil will shoot the moon.

The "bloody" is indisputable, but oil shooting the moon is really more dependent on the length of time the disturbances last than the intensity of the disturbances.  I could very easily see the situation, if not "calm," at least orderly enough to do business within a month.

[The Mikado]

Looks like Libya's delegation to the UN(!) is calling for Qaddafi's ouster.

Has this ever happened before?  The closest thing I can think of is Thailand's UN delegation, hearing in the middle of a meeting that Thaksin had been overthrown.

http://af.reuters.com/article/egyptNews/idAFN2122551120110221

[The Mikado]

His speech lasted over an hour.  He included a bit where he declared death sentences on...everyone.

[The Mikado]

Does anyone have a link to the speech?

Apparently, the only network that bothered to broadcast the entire thing was Libyan state TV, and they didn't have English translators (for obvious reasons).

Here's the first ~hour or so of the speech with subtitles:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FstrPo1X7S8 (First 15 minutes)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yh9O4rq1o1A (Next 10 minutes)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9MQD38nmOs (Next 6 minutes)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8WO9BrXA3Q (Next 8 minutes, this is the part where he talks about drugs)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RlEBDT-gaew  (Next 12 minutes)

So, there you go.  1 hour of the speech.  It's still missing another 20 minutes or so.

[The Mikado]

Al Jazeera's been running that "I will die a martyr in the end" line constantly.  They seem to really hope that it'll be a self-fulfilling prophecy.  (So do I, of course)

[The Mikado]

Do we really want to get rid of King Muhammad though?

I mean compared with most of these other guys he's f**king Mikhail Gorbachev.

Look what happened to Gorbachev.

[The Mikado]

Suggestions for a deck: the Bashir Assad deck is pretty solid (he has an elemental resistance to sanctions and an immunity to condemnation), though the secession card will automatically drain a third of his health, so be careful.

[The Mikado]

As noted above, the first sign that Gaddafi was in a much stronger position than most people seemed to think was the fact that the rebels didn't even attempt to mount an assault on Tripoli.  The counter-attacks are now even more proof.

Barring real Western involvement (such as arming the rebels or using military force), this armed conflict is going to continue for a while, and it becomes uncertain in my mind who will prevail.

Except that none of the counterattacks have actually successfully retaken a city for Qaddafi?  That seems a pretty big hole in any argument revolving around the counterattacks.  If anything, Qaddafi's attack on Zawiah is proof of his impotence.

[The Mikado]

Huge explosions in Tripoli...wait, it was just a gas truck rolling over in a rather extreme traffic accident.

Of course, cause aside, it's still not the most pleasant thing to have to clean up.

[The Mikado]

Quite honestly, the people of Libya having the ability to govern themselves is far more important than "Regional stability."

EDIT:  And, yes, full-out civil war is a step up from living under the rule of Muammar al-Qaddafi.

[The Mikado]

Both Qaddafi and the rebels have taken/lost a city today.  In the words of Sam Spade, "Interesting..."

[The Mikado]

These are the times that try men's souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph. What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly: it is dearness only that gives every thing its value. Heaven knows how to put a proper price upon its goods; and it would be strange indeed if so celestial an article as freedom should not be highly rated. Qaddafi, with an army to enforce his tyranny, has declared that he has a right (not only to tax) but "to bind us in all cases whatsoever," and if being bound in that manner, is not slavery, then is there not such a thing as slavery upon earth. Even the expression is impious; for so unlimited a power can belong only to God.


Whether the freedom of the Libyan people was declared too soon, or delayed too long, I will not now enter into as an argument; my own simple opinion is, that had it been eight months earlier, it would have been much better. We did not make a proper use of last winter, neither could we, while we were in a dependent state. However, the fault, if it were one, was all our own; we have none to blame but ourselves. But no great deal is lost yet. All that Qaddafi has been doing for this month past, is rather a ravage than a conquest, which the spirit of Benghazi, a year ago, would have quickly repulsed, and which time and a little resolution will soon recover.

[The Mikado]

You forgot the part about him hating the bearded men as much as Saddam did.

You know, Saddam kind of had a Mel Gibson thing going on towards the end there.  He should've done the beard look rather than the mustache look from the beginning.

[The Mikado]

The way the West has dealt with this is disgusting and will cost us dear for generations to come. Once again we have signalled to those in the region that we indeed are the enemy and that the secular opposition is incapable of ending dictatorships in most of the Middle-East. I fully expect thousands to turn towards radical islamism across the region.

People who think there was any danger of the islamists taking over in Lybia don't know their stuff. If we're unlucky they will be the ones taking over when the Qaddafi regime falls in 10-20 years or when revolution comes to the Arab peninsula though, because we failed the Arab people this time round.  

Good lord, don't you think this smacks of 'White Man's Burden'?

When the Arab League invites a NATO intervention, the scenario's somewhat different.

[The Mikado]

At least France is taking a leadership role on this (though their long historic bad blood with CQ dating back to the Chad War is noted...France never liked CQ talking of Libya replacing France as the big dog in Africa).

[The Mikado]

(What do you mean by CQ?).

I've been using it as an abbreviation for "Colonel Qaddafi."  Mainly because the other thread I'm following on the subject, on Something Awful, moves so fast that everyone has started calling him that to get their posts in and to avoid the name spelling disputes.

[The Mikado]

Here we go again - Imperialist Europeans come to Africa and start slaughtering the natives. It is appalling.

Yes, because coalition members Morocco, UAE, Qatar, and Jordan are so white Imperialists. 

[The Mikado]

The pace the rebels are moving at makes quite a bit of sense.  Most/all of their vehicles are stolen Qaddafi ones.  It would be quite embarrassing to get ahead of themselves and see their forces demolished by a Coalition friendly fire incident.

[The Mikado]

Sirt is the scene of major battles, today.  Sirt is both important as a symbol (Qaddafi's hometown and the site of the greatest number of Qaddafi loyalists that actually support him) and as a strategic target (it would allow the main rebel force to connect up with and relieve the beleaguered rebel defenders of Misrata, which has been cut off from the rest of the rebellion for weeks).

[The Mikado]

Sirt is the scene of major battles, today.  Sirt is both important as a symbol (Qaddafi's hometown and the site of the greatest number of Qaddafi loyalists that actually support him) and as a strategic target (it would allow the main rebel force to connect up with and relieve the beleaguered rebel defenders of Misrata, which has been cut off from the rest of the rebellion for weeks).

The advance was "stalled" as of the 6:30 news.

So I take it that the rebel's experimental Office Chair Calvary didn't work out as hoped?

There's a great .gif of that pic on SA where the guy is firing and rolling backwards off frame, then it goes the other direction.

Also, the rebels might want to avoid their Calvary.  Cavalry, on the other hand...

[The Mikado]

All the same, if it does turn into a waiting game, how long can Qaddafi keep going with a third of his country under rebel occupation and the tightest sanctions he's ever faced?  I mean, keep going economically.  Libya's never been a well-to-do nation to begin with, even with the oil.

[The Mikado]

"Why aren't you doing anything about situation X" is not really a valid argument, anyway.  Isn't doing some good in some situations better than doing nothing at all because you can't do everything?

[The Mikado]

Rebels attempting to seize Brega (again).  If successful, Qaddafi will be limited to pretty much just Sirt and Tripoli.

[The Mikado]

Rebels attempting to seize Brega (again).  If successful, Qaddafi will be limited to pretty much just Sirt and Tripoli.

And everything but Misrata in between, as well as the coast from Tripoli to the Tunisian border and the western part of the Fezzan.

I meant in terms of population centers.  There's not many people (outside rebel-controlled Misrata) between Tripoli and Sirt, let alone down in Fezzan.

In many ways, it would make sense (if the attack on Brega succeeds) for the rebels to cut off and bypass Sirt rather than try to take it.  It's Qaddafi's most loyal city in the country.