Libya: Benghazi unrest, to Civil War, to a new government and Gaddafi's death.

[Insula Dei]

Not for those with a feeble stomach:

http://arabrevolution.posterous.com/libyan-hit-with-high-caliber-in-the-head-very

(Picture of a protestor shot trough the head by a government sniper)

[Insula Dei]

Can anyone here see a Lybian Hama in the next few days? Or is Gadaffi already past that point of authority and are his mercenaries the only things left between Lybia and the end of his regime?


EDIT: Am I he only one hearing rumours about Italian mercenaries?

[Insula Dei]

My favourite scenario so far is the one that has Egypt launch an invasion. This would a) kill of Gaddafi b) avoid the revolt being perceived as a Western affair c)cement the position of the temporary government in Egypt and prevent further riots there (which admittedly could backfire if it just leads to the army taking over command) and d) would probably make other regional leaders reconsider too extreme measures against future protests.

Slightly like the way it were the Vietnamese who got rid of Pol Pot.

[Insula Dei]

Just as Tunisia and Egypt influenced others, Libya may as well. If the country falls into a protracted civil war and humanitarian crisis, particularly if Qaddafi is able to re-take cities, this may have a chilling effect on protests elsewhere, particularly raising awareness of potential violent dynamics and the risks inherent in attempting a revolution. Such a chilling effect, at this point, would not be entirely unwelcome.

It's really rather difficult to come up with an adequate response to this.

Don't try to understand it, Xahar, just accept that them sandpeople don't really count when that Human Rights thing is discussed.

[Insula Dei]

If there is a major combat operation involving Egypt, I want credit for being the first to predict/suggest/wish for such a development.

Oh, and I don't think Qaddafi's army would be any sort of match for the Egyptian one in an all-out conflict, especially not now. We're talking about an army even the Israeli's fear here, not about some disorganised mercenary militias.

Edit: obviously it's not just sheer idealism that would make Egypt get involved in an all-out civil war:

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/7689/World/Region/Ahram-Online-on-the-Libyan-front-Egyptians-in-the-.aspx

[Insula Dei]

If there is a major combat operation involving Egypt, I want credit for being the first to predict/suggest/wish for such a development.

Uh, the world thanks you...?

I gratefully accept it's gratitude. I just knew those generals couldn't have made this up without my much-needed assistance.

Actually I just meant it'd be cool if everybody woulk act as if I were some major Forum authority on the region.

[Insula Dei]

The way the West has dealt with this is disgusting and will cost us dear for generations to come. Once again we have signalled to those in the region that we indeed are the enemy and that the secular opposition is incapable of ending dictatorships in most of the Middle-East. I fully expect thousands to turn towards radical islamism across the region.

People who think there was any danger of the islamists taking over in Lybia don't know their stuff. If we're unlucky they will be the ones taking over when the Qaddafi regime falls in 10-20 years or when revolution comes to the Arab peninsula though, because we failed the Arab people this time round.  

[Insula Dei]

The way the West has dealt with this is disgusting and will cost us dear for generations to come. Once again we have signalled to those in the region that we indeed are the enemy and that the secular opposition is incapable of ending dictatorships in most of the Middle-East. I fully expect thousands to turn towards radical islamism across the region.

People who think there was any danger of the islamists taking over in Lybia don't know their stuff. If we're unlucky they will be the ones taking over when the Qaddafi regime falls in 10-20 years or when revolution comes to the Arab peninsula though, because we failed the Arab people this time round.  

Good lord, don't you think this smacks of 'White Man's Burden'?

You don't mean to suggest anyone but the USA is calling the shots in the UN, do you?

[Insula Dei]

Well, there is something called 'International Community' which just about all countries seem to accept as an objectively good thing. I don't think preventing a semi-genocide is outside of what that International Community should be interested in.

[Insula Dei]

     Preventing semi-genocides isn't so horrible, though I think that imposing a no-fly zone crosses over into aiding the rebels, which is interference in Lybian internal affairs.

You don't think Qaddafi is going to have a jolly old Tea Party with those rebels, do you? The only thing standing between us and some nasty massacring in Lybia is the possibility of an intervention.

[Insula Dei]

    Preventing semi-genocides isn't so horrible, though I think that imposing a no-fly zone crosses over into aiding the rebels, which is interference in Lybian internal affairs.

You don't think Qaddafi is going to have a jolly old Tea Party with those rebels, do you? The only thing standing between us and some nasty massacring in Lybia is the possibility of an intervention.

     There are different kinds of interventions that exist. I surmise it would be possible to dispatch a multinational humanitarian taskforce to assure the proper treatment of rebels & rebel sympathizers without directly assisting them in their war against Qaddafi's government.

That has to be the most naive thing I've heard all week. How exactly would they do this short of occupying every city in the country and showing a willingness to use lethal force to keep Gaddafi's thugs in check? Such an effort would require far more intervention than a no-fly zone.

     It was a stupid suggestion in reaction to another dubious suggestion. A no-fly zone seems like something that likewise would require more intervention than just, I don't know, giving the rebels superior arms?

How's my suggestion dubious? Everybody knows Qadaffi will kill thousands after this. Heck, his own son has suggested so himself.

[Insula Dei]

While the West's eagerness to stand by and watch in Bahrain is still a very distressing thing, taking actual measures against Qaddafi, the murderous maniac, would make up at least partially for 2 weeks or more of incompetent and disgracefull slowness as far as Lybia was concerned.

Of course, that wasn't the West's fault alone, as the rebels did give in to some serious hybris in thinking they'd get rid of Qaddafi without any sort of International involvement.

[Insula Dei]

Great news.

[Insula Dei]

Is that the Benghazi crowd chanting 'One, Two, Three, Something Sarkozy"?

[Insula Dei]

Also, Westerwelle/Germany's actions have been disgraceful, almost as bad as Sarkozy's in the Egyptian and Tunisian days.

^^^^^^^^

[Insula Dei]

Lugar says the US shouldn't participate in a no-fly zone unless Congress passes a declaration of war:

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/03/17/lugar_no_fly_zone_requires_declaration_of_war

I might change my opinion of the guy to HP.

[Insula Dei]

Libya just declared a total ceasefire.

[Insula Dei]

Belgium said it would propose some F-16 and some warships within a NATO operation.

Those are as it happens in Greece, too. So they can act within hours of a green light by the French/Americans/British axis.

[Insula Dei]

We (as in: the Coalition of the Willing, for lack of a better term) should get our act together now, not when Benghazi has fallen to the Madman. What other Rebel strongholds are left? Only Tobruk?

[Insula Dei]

Where did this tribal war nonsense come from?

I have the same question. Some people probably try to rationalize their knee-jerk reaction to any kind of military intervention.

Do I need to remind that Libya is one of those countries, where various tribal divisions and influence of tribes are strongest?

Oh, btw, Gaddafi/opposition lines are mostly along with regional/tribal divisions.

Please learn more about Arab culture before posting.

Ahem, Qaddafi also is a murderous madman.

[Insula Dei]

Military intervention for 'humanitarian' reasons is 1) pure propaganda, just a story to cover real reasons, and 2) in any case cultural imperialism.

For whatever reason I thought you would find something more creative to say rather than such a stupid, lame, overused talking point.

What is stupid, lame, and overused is the absurd propaganda used to justify humanitarian intervention.  We've seen the US and other imperialist powers use this same justification over and over again for over 120 years.  I'm sick of it, and yet you all continue to lap it up.

I don't think the 'We should stop the natives from being slaughtered' line of thinking held much sway with the American public in 1891, actually. And Opebo, please realize that you of all people should refrain from commentin on what you perceive to be a 'colonial' mindset. If anyone's living the good old colonial life, it's you.

[Insula Dei]

^^^^^^

I don't like my PM, I don't like Cameron and I don't like Sarkozy and yet I'm all in favour of an operation which all three are involved in and which the latter two more or less set up.

[Insula Dei]

I vehemently oppose arming the rebels. At a certain point we need to learn our lesson and stop giving weapons to insurgents who are for the time being on our side but may not be in a decade.

If we don't, the rebels people who oppose Gaddaffi, who may or may not be terrorists themselves lose.  Just understand the stakes.

Uhm, what do you mean with 'might be terrorists'? I'm honestly flabbergasted here. Arabs + guns = Potential Terrorists? These people have shown more courage in the past month or so  than most of us will ever show in our life. At the very  least you own them some respect. And everything we have seen from the Benghazi area has shown that this isn't just some 'bearded men' operating on their own, but an operation actively supported by vast proportions of the population. Are you suggesting that the women and boyscouts preparing food packets for the warriors on the frontline might be terrorists? These people ask for the freedom to not be shot at with anti-aircraft artillery when they take to the streets in protest. These aren't 'potential terrorists'.

Stop seeing all of world history as if 9/11 is the only thing that ever mattered please.

[Insula Dei]

Well, it's not as if they are actually well-trained soldiers who would be a match for Qaddafi's troops even if they would have been equally well equipped.

[Insula Dei]

Perhaps, I'm being a bit to critical here, but aren't the same people who excoriated Bush from the beginning in regards to Iraq hypocritical here?  Saddam was responsible for how many deaths, yet those same people cry in support of Obama's Libya policy.  Even the people who supported the Iraq surge based on the same premise now attack Obama's Libya policy?  France flat-out attacked our Iraq policy, yet here they are seemingly leading the battle cry in Libya?  My Goodness.  Politics is the absolute antonym of common sense.

In 2003, Saddam wasn't bombing his own cities or preparing for a huge massacre among his political adversaries.