Libya: Benghazi unrest, to Civil War, to a new government and Gaddafi's death.

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This is by far the worst regime that has had any type of unrest in it, so I'm really hoping this one goes.

There are a lot of horrible regimes involved. I think the Saudis have Libya beat. If you're a woman, you might be better off living in North Korea than Saudi Arabia. 15/19 hijackers and Bin Laden himself are from Saudi Arabia. All and all, a pretty crappy country.

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Tunisians and Egyptians are working to oust Gaddafi.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/26/AR2011022603808.html

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Gaddafi is out, obviously. Kind of tragicomical how the international community only joins the bandwagon once it is 100% clear that the Libyan people has done the job on their own.

Well, if he pulls through, we'd still need his oil, wouldn't we?

He's not in control of the oilfields any more, so we can throw him under a bus.

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Gaddafi is out, obviously. Kind of tragicomical how the international community only joins the bandwagon once it is 100% clear that the Libyan people has done the job on their own.

Well, if he pulls through, we'd still need his oil, wouldn't we?

He's not in control of the oilfields any more, so we can throw him under a bus.

He still controls the oil fields in the west. The seeds are set for a long term civil war unless there are more defections and Gaddafi's side collapses. Which, hopefully is not too far away. However, if anyone is able to control the country after this is anyone's guess. Libya is really in trouble.

He controls the fields but has no way to sell the oil (as all of the pipelines are shut down, and he has no way to get the oil to ports; the oil ports are all controlled by the opposition). This is not going to be a long civil war. Gaddafi has no supporters, just mercenaries and his family, and the mercenaries will not stick around once he can't pay them (which will happen very soon if it isn't happening already). Even if he does, there's no way he can get supplies in and out of Tripoli, and he's continuing to lose control of more and more places closer and closer to the city. This is all but over.

Yeah, my point. He might technically control a couple of oilfields, but sanctions aside, he has no way of selling it to other countries. Most of the oilfields are either controlled by the rebels, or couldn't be useful on the international markets.

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There are a couple of factors to consider. One, the early stages of a civil war are the most critical, so if this is what is indeed brewing, then the window of opportunity to rapidly influence a decisive result is closing quickly. Two, if the two sides are relatively evenly balanced in a stalemate, it would take more than a "no-fly zone" and taking out anti-aircraft batteries to break the stalemate. Sustained aerial strikes on entrenched positions with civilian collateral casualties ala Afghanistan 2001 would likely be necessary. Three, Turkey, Russia, France and Germany would not likely be on board. This would be a "coalition of the willing." The final consideration is the impact that the Libyan situation has on other protests in other countries. Just as Tunisia and Egypt influenced others, Libya may as well. If the country falls into a protracted civil war and humanitarian crisis, particularly if Qaddafi is able to re-take cities, this may have a chilling effect on protests elsewhere, particularly raising awareness of potential violent dynamics and the risks inherent in attempting a revolution. Such a chilling effect, at this point, would not be entirely unwelcome.

No disagreements, though France and Germany may help indirectly.  For us wee people, we just wait and see, for now. 

I wonder if they'd be more like to consider if it wasn't for the great Iraq mistake.

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So are idiotic US right-wingers taking bets on when France surrenders to Gaddafi?

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Is Gaddafi a birther?

Win.

Gaddafi is pretty soon going to say how Muslim Kenyan born Obama is helping those druggie Al Qaeda foreigner rebels. Pretty much straight out of Fox News.

Gaddafi may find that the French have a bit more resolve than Fox News portrays them as having.

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The Gaddafi Government itself is now only claiming "partial" control of Tripoli, which likely means it has completely fallen.

Oil prices to fall soon, hopefully.

I guess Muhammad Saeed al-Sahhaf is still out of work.

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I'm now wondering who will be in office longer, Qaddafi or Obama.

(please note that was only 5 days ago.)

LOL. Is Gaddafi actually still considered to be in office?

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The only part of Libya that's confirmed loyalist-controlled is Sirt.  Without Tripoli, he doesn't really have a base anymore outside of his hometown of Sirt, and a town of ~200k people is no base of operations in a country of over 6m people.

The rebels don't have Tripoli yet. 

LOL.

I guess we know who is trying to get hired as the Tripoli Bob.

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J. J. reminds me of that Libyan State TV anchor who was videotaped holding a gun and saying that she would fight to the death along with many others for Gaddafi. Well now that state TV office is abandoned.

I think even Gaddafi admitted that the rebels controlled some of Tripoli. Gaddafi has no use for a Tripoli Bob when he's.... I wonder what the heck Gaddafi is doing right now.

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J. J. reminds me of that Libyan State TV anchor who was videotaped holding a gun and saying that she would fight to the death along with many others for Gaddafi. Well now that state TV office is abandoned.

I think even Gaddafi admitted that the rebels controlled some of Tripoli. Gaddafi has no use for a Tripoli Bob when he's.... I wonder what the heck Gaddafi is doing right now.

Actually, MSNBC was reporting (as of a half hour ago) that his compound and some of the city is still being held.  Also, there are pro Qaddafi snipers in the city.

Well, the rebels claims to hold the city, except Gaddafi compound, from what I understand.
I suspect they have a little less more ground than what they claim, so MSNBC seems logic.

They also said "pockets."  It might be over soon, but there could be a lot more bloodshed before it is over, even in Tripoli.

Yes, but it is pretty sure than Gaddafi won't regain control of the city. Which more or less means he is finished.

He may not need to, directly.

This isn't going to be another Iraq.

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The reappearance of Saif al -Islam Khadhaffy seems to throw a lot of the narrative of the last 24-hours out of whack.

The question is whether it was a fog of war issue, or a major failure.