TN-PPP: Huckabee 31% Palin 17% Gingrich 11% Romney 11% Paul 10%

[Mr. Morden]

PPP poll of TN:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_TN_0216424.pdf

Huckabee 31%
Palin 17%
Gingrich 11%
Romney 11%
Paul 10%
Daniels 3%
Pawlenty 3%
Thune 1%

[King]

Have the delegate counts for these primaries been released yet?  Are they changed from 2008?  If they are based off of 2008 vote totals, Huckster might get a decent block of delegates when compared to Romney states.

[Mr. Morden]

Have the delegate counts for these primaries been released yet?  Are they changed from 2008?  If they are based off of 2008 vote totals, Huckster might get a decent block of delegates when compared to Romney states.

Yes, the delegate numbers have been released, and yes they're different from 2008.  Here are the #s:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/R-Alloc.phtml

including the formula that was used for the allocation.

In brief, delegate allocations are based primarily on the number of electoral votes a state have, plus bonuses for "party strength", so that states with more Republicans get more delegates.  The biggest bonus is for presidential preference from 2008, so states that voted for McCain over Obama get a big bonus, and you end up with Georgia having more delegates than Illinois.

Of course, states with primaries earlier than March 6th will have delegate penalties and lose half their delegates, so TN might end up with 29 delegates rather than 58.  But the legislature is looking to move the primary to March, in which case they'd be free of the penalty.

[King]

Interesting.  Of the Top 10 delegate states, I see a 6 to 4 break favoring Huckabee (Texas, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Ohio, Tennessee).  It might be 7-3 as Huck apparently leads in PA, too, but I think they'd chose Romney in the end if no vote splitting. GOP doesn't do proportionate delegates, either.

It's also funny that DC was given more delegates than Delaware.  The state of O'Donnell and Castle gets no love.

[Mr. Morden]

GOP doesn't do proportionate delegates, either.

Yes they do.  Read this thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=128721.0

The RNC's new rules require every state with a primary before April 1 to allocate delegates by PR.  Those with primaries *after* April 1 are free to allocate the delegates as they like.....by PR, by WTA, WTA by district, or some kind of hybrid or whatever.  This list:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/R-DSVE.phtml

breaks down how delegates were allocated in various states in 2008, which'll probably carry over to 2012 for those states voting later than April 1.  If they vote before April 1, they have to use PR.

[King]

Interesting.  Something tells me this won't be over by April 1st, though.  I know it's rare, but none of these candidates stand out enough.

[Tender Branson]

Map:

Huckabee -> Light Blue
Romney -> Red
Palin -> Pink
Gingrich -> Dark Blue
Pawlenty -> Green
DeMint -> Yellow
Thune -> Brown

[Tender Branson]

Assuming that Romney will have a comfortable lead in the upcoming Rhode Island poll, the breakdown now is:

15 states - Huckabee
10 states - Romney
  6 states - Palin
  4 states - Others
  1 state   - Tie

[RI]

Interesting.  Something tells me this won't be over by April 1st, though.  I know it's rare, but none of these candidates stand out enough.

I hope so. The more candidates and the more exciting and prolonged the contest is, the better maps it makes.

[King]

If anything, I think the new proportionate rule makes it less likely to have a nominee early.

McCain ran way from Huckabee because of the winner take all.  If it had been allocated correctly, Romney would have split enough delegates in big McCain wins (CA and SC for example) to keep himself in it and maybe give Huckabee a lead.

[Badger]

If anything, I think the new proportionate rule makes it less likely to have a nominee early.

McCain ran way from Huckabee because of the winner take all.  If it had been allocated correctly, Romney would have split enough delegates in big McCain wins (CA and SC for example) to keep himself in it and maybe give Huckabee a lead.

Not to mention Huckabee would've picked up significant delegates from narrow winner take all victories of McCain in Mo and OK (and Romney actually would've picked some up there too).

[Mr. Morden]

The 2008 GOP race is indeed the rare case in which, had the delegates been allocated by PR, we might have seen a brokered convention.  However, keep in mind, the Dems have been using PR for all of their presidential primaries for 30 years.  And while we have gotten several cases where it went down to the wire, we've also gotten cases like 2004, where it looks like a giant muddle several months out, but then once the primaries start, one candidate is able to wrap up the nomination very quickly, even with PR.