The Wisconsin Cheese Showdown

[Torie]

Oh what a fun project for me!  

What are the stats of the current La Cross based Senate district I wonder? It looks like Bush 2004 carried it, by maybe 52-48 or something. Is a Dem holding it currently? If he is, I suspect he is in the cross hairs of a Pubbie recall.

The district in question was 53-46 Kerry and 61-38 Obama, per SSP.

Thanks. We shall see what the possibilities are.

[krazen1211]

Oh what a fun project for me!  

What are the stats of the current La Cross based Senate district I wonder? It looks like Bush 2004 carried it, by maybe 52-48 or something. Is a Dem holding it currently? If he is, I suspect he is in the cross hairs of a Pubbie recall.

Why can't you Dem pack one of the 3 assembly districts in whatever senate district the Pubbies draw? Wouldn't that take care of that?  And I have a lot of practice in Dem packing. I'm the master of the art really.

By the way, the WSJ article is going to be published soon on redistricting games played by the folks, and this site is going to get a lot more attention I suspect. We shall see.

It's hard to pack Wisconsin given the rural swings. Rural Wisconsin went mostly for Bush in 2004, and almost entirely slightly for Obama in 2008.

I looked at the Senate district map; it looks like 2 or so Democrats could be eliminated and 2 or 3 could be packed. Beyond that you have to crack the Milwaukee suburban area.


This might call for redistricting twice. Once before these recalls, and once before the general elections scheduled in 2012. It's really crass, but then again so is quorum denial.

[Torie]

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Wow, just wow. Very creative Krazen! But unwise. A double draw would backfire. Even I can't quite go there.
   

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The thing with Wisconsin is because of the way the state can swing you just can't draw a wave-proof map (for either party). And the GOP certainly can't assume all elections will be 2010 (though with the arrogance I'm hearing it sounds like they will), and with the current status of support for Walker and his policies and the way Obama looks in the state for 2012 against opposition it's clearly 2012 probably isn't going to be that.

Now they might manage to save a few seats via gerrymandering but you simply can't draw a solid GOP seat around La Crosse, period. So if the situation continues with support for Walker there being no doubt what it is, that seat is going to be lost. The guy might flip to try to save himself like his neighbor, but there's really simply no way to lock him up.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

New poll commissioned by pro-market think tank mirrors the Rasmussen poll in showing Walker and his proposal unpopular.

http://www.wpri.org/polls/March2011/poll0311.html

[Marokai Backbeat]

Where is Cinyc to argue how Walker and the Republicans are defying the will of the people? (Or does that only apply when Democrats defy the "will of the people"?)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Actually in a rather Orwellian twist the Republicans are arguing that Walker rather has the SUPPORT of the people. Just check out the Gubernatorial board, it's full of spin about how these numbers aren't "that bad" for Walker. Even one Republicans has flat out argued the difference between health care reform and what Walker is pushing is Walker has the majority support...though the polls show more support for HCR. This is even more ridiculous than some of the arguments I heard from die-hard Hillary idiots about how Obama was "selected, not elected" by the superdelegates.

[memphis]

New poll commissioned by pro-market think tank mirrors the Rasmussen poll in showing Walker and his proposal unpopular.

http://www.wpri.org/polls/March2011/poll0311.html

We have a winner:
About twice as many people (72 percent) either somewhat or strongly favor raising income taxes on people making over $150,000 a year as oppose it (27 percent).

[Landslide Lyndon]

New poll commissioned by pro-market think tank mirrors the Rasmussen poll in showing Walker and his proposal unpopular.

http://www.wpri.org/polls/March2011/poll0311.html

We have a winner:
About twice as many people (72 percent) either somewhat or strongly favor raising income taxes on people making over $150,000 a year as oppose it (27 percent).

Alas, once again reality has a strong liberal bias.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So much for the "treacherous" Democrats being less popular than Walker:

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[Lunar]

GAME OVER

http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheat-sheet/item/wisconsin-democrats-to-end-exile/game-over/

[Ban my account ffs!]

GAME OVER

http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheat-sheet/item/wisconsin-democrats-to-end-exile/game-over/

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/03/wisconsin-dems-deny-wsj-report-of-imminent-return.php?ref=fpblg

The game isn't over until collective bargaining is off the table.  The senate minority leader was simply saying that they would return when that happened, and he believed that will be sooner rather than later because of growing public opposition to Walker's plan.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah there are signs that two more Republicans might fall. I'm comfortable predicting there is no way the guy from La Crosse gets re-elected unless he flips on this.

[Dgov]

GAME OVER

http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheat-sheet/item/wisconsin-democrats-to-end-exile/game-over/

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/03/wisconsin-dems-deny-wsj-report-of-imminent-return.php?ref=fpblg

The game isn't over until collective bargaining is off the table.  The senate minority leader was simply saying that they would return when that happened, and he believed that will be sooner rather than later because of growing public opposition to Walker's plan.

EDIT: Links exist to be clicked

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

And in the link that you quoted they refuted those statements made to the WSJ.

[Dgov]

And in the link that you quoted they refuted those statements made to the WSJ.

*Slaps self

[The Dowager Mod]

The signature collection for the recalls was 35% above expected this weekend.

[Brittain33]

The signature collection for the recalls was 35% above expected this weekend.

Is this for recalls of Dem senators as well as for Republican senators, or only the Dem efforts?

[The Dowager Mod]

Just the republicans.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Graeme Zielinski, a spokesman for the Wisconsin Democratic Party, said activists had 20% of the signatures needed in one district and 25% of those needed in another. Mr. Zielinski declined to identify the senators, saying "We'd like to keep them guessing."

From a WSJ article here:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703662804576189002398082020.html

[The Dowager Mod]

None of the Dems are in any danger, at least 2 of the republicans are in deep doodoo.

[Landslide Lyndon]

These guys are getting pretty desperate. At least they dropped any pretension that it's all about fiscal responsibility and balancing budgets.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/blogs/weigel/archive/2011/03/09/wisconsin-senate-gop-tries-nuclear-option-for-passing-anti-union-bill.aspx

Up to now, the Budget Repair Bill in Wisconsin has been frozen because all fourteen Senate Democrats will not return to the state to negotiate it. There's no quorum -- the bill, which consists of many fiscal components, can't pass.

Republicans in the Senate are trying an end run around that now. They have called a conference committee meeting -- which is open to the media -- where the fiscal components of the bill will be stripped out. That would allow the stripped-down bill to pass the Senate with no Democrats present.

This is incoherent in a number of ways. First, Gov. Scott Walker's argument for not putting the collective bargaining and union dues/formation reforms on the negotiating table has been, since the beginning, that they were necessary for letting local governments balance their budgets. These only fail to be "fiscal components" if the definition of "fiscal" is limited to numbers that will appear in the legislation. Second, Republicans punted on a voting reform bill two weeks ago because they did not want to split the fiscal portions of the bill -- funding for IDs, for those who couldn't afford them -- from the rest of it.

This is a desperation move. It's happening, say Democrats, before they read the new bill.

[Dgov]

And it looks like its done.  Passed 18-1, so it'll go back to the House (since's its technically a different version of the bill, even if it is just a part of another existing one), but Republicans there should pass it easily into law.

And now the democrats have no discernible reason to stay in Illinois (since they supposedly conceded on the budget part already).

[Franzl]

lol

Why wasn't this done sooner?

[Marokai Backbeat]

Using public policy for political purposes. Republicans do it better than anyone.

At least the Democrats put up a good fight.