The Wisconsin Cheese Showdown

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

I agree with the cuts but destroying collective bargaining is going to far. That's just to destroy a political enemy, which is fine, but they should be upfront about it.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Apparently the teachers have folded on the financial issues. So now it is apparently all about castrating the public employee non public safety union(s). And so it goes.

Yep. The cuts aren't the reason that people are pissed, it's getting rid of collective bargaining.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

It won't look good if the Dems are AWOL while bill after bill is passed. But we shall see. As I said, it is a mere tactical nuke, that the "big one."

Bills the Senate Democrats wouldn't be able to stop anyway.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

The more I think about this, the more I am convinced that the Senate Dems should stay in exile for as long as necessary for the Republicans to agree to not get rid of collective bargaining.

If they back down and the bill passes than it will be a crushing defeat and a gigantic victory for Walker in a battle of wills and they cannot let that happen.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Or the delay will end up passing the anti union thing separately. Is there any rush with this? Why can't the Pubbies just go about their business for months while the Dems get to know much better the lay of the land in suburban Chicago?  Another pressure point is that Walker could start firing people without a budget.

They could do that, depends on where they think the public is on this issue. That kind of overreach could hurt them badly in future elections.

Plus, if I was them I'd want to force the Dems back to Wisconsin if only for the fact it would be humiliating for them to back down.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

The number of protesters today was over 100,000 and police are allowing a few hundred to remain in the capitol after refusing to follow Walker's orders to kick them out.

Also, rumor is that one Republican State Senator (Dale Schultz) now opposes the bill: http://twitter.com/#!/wisaflcio/status/42024963183480834

Then need 2 more Republicans if that is the case.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

From the Rasmussen poll:
Among those asked about the state budget deficit, 52% supported the Democrats and 44% supported the Governor. Most of those 50 and over support the Governor, 40-somethings are evenly divided, and those under 40 support the Democrats.

Among those asked about weakening collective bargaining rights, 56% supported the union and 41% supported the Governor. There is a similar age dynamic on this question, even though the overall level of support for the Governor is lower.

Not good numbers for Walker.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Wow, when even Rasmussen is showing numbers like that, you know the jig is up.

The Pubbies cannot afford to back down, and won't.

Neither can the Senate Dems at this point, at least as long as the numbers stay like this as the recall efforts get off the ground.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

http://mms.tveyes.com/Transcript.asp?StationID=5100&DateTime=3/1/2011+5:02:32+AM&Term=%22AFL+CIO%22&PlayClip=TRUE

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/plum-line/2011/03/are_wisconsin_republicans_gett.html

Looks like some of the Republicans might be wavering.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

New poll commissioned by pro-market think tank mirrors the Rasmussen poll in showing Walker and his proposal unpopular.

http://www.wpri.org/polls/March2011/poll0311.html

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

And in the link that you quoted they refuted those statements made to the WSJ.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Graeme Zielinski, a spokesman for the Wisconsin Democratic Party, said activists had 20% of the signatures needed in one district and 25% of those needed in another. Mr. Zielinski declined to identify the senators, saying "We'd like to keep them guessing."

From a WSJ article here:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703662804576189002398082020.html

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

None of the Dems are in any danger, at least 2 of the republicans are in deep doodoo.

Looking at the data, the Republicans are probably fine, at least until next year.  Wisconsin law prevents elected officials from being recalled until they have served at least a full year in their elected office--which means that the only Republicans the Democrats can target are the ones that were elected in 2008--a much worse environment for the Republican party than currently (PPP has walker down 7 to Barrett in a theoretical poll in the middle of a terrible media cycle for him.  In 2008 the State elected Obama over the much more Moderate McCain by like 14 points)

Add on top that this would be an off-off-year election (where Democrats tend to do much worse than in say, national presidential elections), and I'd say any actual recall elections are going to wind up being much less favorable to the Democrats than you seem to think.

I don't think Dems being motivated to turn out is going to be a problem for them.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Never been on strike before, hope the weathers good.

What are the chances of a general strike at this point?

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Have they gotten enough for Hopper yet?

Either way, great news for the recall efforts. It will be interesting to see if any of the Dem senators get recalled.

Who do you think will win the Supreme Court election TexasGurl?