Best candidates (in theory) for 2012 Senate races

[nclib]

By in theory, I meant regardless of whether they actually would run or could get nominated.

4.1 Retiring Democratic incumbents (3 seats)
4.1.1 Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico
D: Rep. Martin Heinrich
R: Rep. Steven Pearce
4.1.2 Kent Conrad of North Dakota
D: ex.-Sen. Byron Dorgan
R: Atty. General Wayne Stenehjem
4.1.3 Jim Webb of Virginia
D: ex.-Gov. Tim Kaine
R: Rep. Frank Wolf

4.2 Retiring Independent incumbent (1 seat)
4.2.1 Joe Lieberman of Connecticut
D: Rep. Chris Murphy
R: ex-Gov. Jodi Rell

4.3 Retiring Republican incumbents (2 seats)
4.3.1 Jon Kyl of Arizona
D: Rep. Gabrielle Giffords if she makes a full recovery by then. Otherwise ex.-Gov. Janet Napolitano
R: Gov. Jan Brewer
4.3.2 Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas
D: ex.-Houston mayor Bill White (won't matter)
R: pretty much any big name

4.4 Democratic incumbents (18 seats)
4.4.1 Dianne Feinstein of California - Rep. Mary Bono Mack
4.4.2 Tom Carper of Delaware - ex.-Rep. Mike Castle
4.4.3 Bill Nelson of Florida - ex.-Gov. Jeb Bush
4.4.4 Daniel Akaka of Hawaii - ex.-Gov. Linda Lingle (won't matter)
4.4.5 Ben Cardin of Maryland ex.-Gov. Bob Ehrlich (won't matter)
4.4.6 Debbie Stabenow of Michigan - Rep. Candice Miller
4.4.7 Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota - ex.-Gov. Tim Pawlenty
4.4.8 Claire McCaskill of Missouri - Rep. Jo Ann Emerson
4.4.9 Jon Tester of Montana - Rep. Denny Rehberg
4.4.10 Ben Nelson of Nebraska - Gov. Dave Heineman (though all 3 Reps would beat Nelson)
4.4.11 Bob Menendez of New Jersey - Gov. Chris Christie
4.4.12 Kirsten Gillibrand of New York - ex.-NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani
4.4.13 Sherrod Brown of Ohio - Rep. Pat Tiberi
4.4.14 Bob Casey, Jr. of Pennsylvania - Rep. Jim Gerlach
4.4.15 Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island - ex.-Gov. Don Carcieri (won't matter)
4.4.16 Maria Cantwell of Washington - candidate Dino Rossi
4.4.17 Joe Manchin of West Virginia - Rep. Shelley Moore Capito
4.4.18 Herb Kohl of Wisconsin - Rep. Paul Ryan

4.5 Independent incumbent (1 seat)
4.5.1 Bernie Sanders of Vermont - ex.-Gov. Jim Douglas (won't matter)

4.6 Republican incumbents (8 seats)
4.6.1 Richard Lugar of Indiana - Rep. Joe Donnelly
4.6.2 Olympia Snowe of Maine - Rep. Mike Michaud (wouldn't matter against Snowe)
4.6.3 Scott Brown of Massachusetts - Rep. Jim McGovern
4.6.4 Roger Wicker of Mississippi - ex.-Gov. Ronnie Musgrave (won't matter)
4.6.5 John Ensign of Nevada - Rep. Shelley Berkley
4.6.6 Bob Corker of Tennessee - ex.-Gov. Phil Bredesen
4.6.7 Orrin Hatch of Utah - Rep. Jim Matheson
4.6.8 John Barrasso of Wyoming - ex.-Gov. Dave Freudenthal (won't matter)

[Holmes]

Bono Mack? She'd get a good 37%. Maybe.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

I disagree with a few of these. Flake is stronger than Brewer is. Bayh would be stronger than Donnelly. I think Johnson would be stronger in NM than Pearce would be.

[Napoleon]

By in theory, I meant regardless of whether they actually would run or could get nominated.

I've made some minor changes to show my opinions.

4.1 Retiring Democratic incumbents (3 seats)
4.1.1 Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico
D: Rep. Martin Heinrich
R: Rep. Steven Pearce Fmr. Gov. Gary Johnson
4.1.2 Kent Conrad of North Dakota
D: ex.-Sen. Byron Dorgan
R: Atty. General Wayne Stenehjem
4.1.3 Jim Webb of Virginia
D: ex.-Gov. Tim Kaine Fmr. Rep. Tom Perriello
R: Rep. Frank Wolf Fmr. Rep. Tom Davis

4.2 Retiring Independent incumbent (1 seat)
4.2.1 Joe Lieberman of Connecticut
D: Rep. Chris Murphy or Ned Lamont
R: ex-Gov. Jodi Rell

4.3 Retiring Republican incumbents (2 seats)
4.3.1 Jon Kyl of Arizona
D: Rep. Gabrielle Giffords if she makes a full recovery by then. Otherwise ex.-Gov. Janet Napolitano
R: Gov. Jan Brewer Rep. Jeff Flake
4.3.2 Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas
D: ex.-Houston mayor Bill White (won't matter)
R: pretty much any big name Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst

4.4 Democratic incumbents (18 seats)
4.4.1 Dianne Feinstein of California - Rep. Mary Bono Mack Fmr. Rep. Tom Campbell
4.4.2 Tom Carper of Delaware - ex.-Rep. Mike Castle
4.4.3 Bill Nelson of Florida - ex.-Gov. Jeb Bush
4.4.4 Daniel Akaka of Hawaii - ex.-Gov. Linda Lingle (won't matter)
4.4.5 Ben Cardin of Maryland ex.-Gov. Bob Ehrlich (won't matter)
4.4.6 Debbie Stabenow of Michigan - Rep. Candice Miller Or maybe Rep. Thad McCotter
4.4.7 Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota - ex.-Gov. Tim Pawlenty
4.4.8 Claire McCaskill of Missouri - Rep. Jo Ann Emerson
4.4.9 Jon Tester of Montana - Rep. Denny Rehberg
4.4.10 Ben Nelson of Nebraska - Gov. Dave Heineman (though all 3 Reps would beat Nelson)
4.4.11 Bob Menendez of New Jersey - Gov. Chris Christie Or Fmr. Gov. Christine Todd Whitman
4.4.12 Kirsten Gillibrand of New York - ex.-NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani Or Fmr. Gov. George Pataki
4.4.13 Sherrod Brown of Ohio - Rep. Pat Tiberi Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor
4.4.14 Bob Casey, Jr. of Pennsylvania - Rep. Jim Gerlach Or Fmr. Gov. Tom Ridge
4.4.15 Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island - ex.-Gov. Don Carcieri (won't matter)
4.4.16 Maria Cantwell of Washington - candidate Dino Rossi Rep. Dave Reichert
4.4.17 Joe Manchin of West Virginia - Rep. Shelley Moore Capito
4.4.18 Herb Kohl of Wisconsin - Rep. Paul Ryan Or Fmr. Gov. Tommy Thompson

4.5 Independent incumbent (1 seat)
4.5.1 Bernie Sanders of Vermont - ex.-Gov. Jim Douglas (won't matter)

4.6 Republican incumbents (8 seats)
4.6.1 Richard Lugar of Indiana - Rep. Joe Donnelly
4.6.2 Olympia Snowe of Maine - Rep. Mike Michaud (wouldn't matter against Snowe)
4.6.3 Scott Brown of Massachusetts - Rep. Jim McGovern
4.6.4 Roger Wicker of Mississippi - ex.-Gov. Ronnie Musgrave (won't matter)
4.6.5 John Ensign of Nevada - Rep. Shelley Berkley
4.6.6 Bob Corker of Tennessee - ex.-Gov. Phil Bredesen
4.6.7 Orrin Hatch of Utah - Rep. Jim Matheson (won't matter)
4.6.8 John Barrasso of Wyoming - ex.-Gov. Dave Freudenthal (won't matter)

[tpfkaw]

I disagree with a few of these. Flake is stronger than Brewer is. Bayh would be stronger than Donnelly. I think Johnson would be stronger in NM than Pearce would be.

Agreed, also Rep. Cantor would probably be the strongest R in VA (fundraising power), Fmr. Rep./Treasurer Tom Campbell in CA, Fmr. Sen./SecEnergy Spencer Abraham in MI, Fmr. Sen. Norm Coleman in MN, State Sen. Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. in NJ (since Christie wouldn't resign as Gov), Atty. Gen. Rob McKenna in WA, and Birthright Occupant/Socialite Vicki Kennedy in MA.

EDIT: Just saw your changes; Kaine would be a much stronger candidate than Periello.

[Napoleon]

I don't think fundraising power does much good if you're getting crushed in NoVA for being an extremist.

[tpfkaw]

I don't think fundraising power does much good if you're getting crushed in NoVA for being an extremist.

Umm... Eric Cantor isn't really considered an extremist... and his district is in Northern Virginia.

[Napoleon]

I don't think fundraising power does much good if you're getting crushed in NoVA for being an extremist.

Umm... Eric Cantor isn't really considered an extremist... and his district is in Northern Virginia.

I would consider the 8th, 10th, and 11th NoVA, not really the 7th. The 7th is more Richmond suburbs than NoVA.
Cantor is pretty extremist.

[tpfkaw]

I don't think fundraising power does much good if you're getting crushed in NoVA for being an extremist.

Umm... Eric Cantor isn't really considered an extremist... and his district is in Northern Virginia.

I would consider the 8th, 10th, and 11th NoVA, not really the 7th. The 7th is more Richmond suburbs than NoVA.
Cantor is pretty extremist.

Cantor is the most generic generic Republican who ever existed on the Earth.  You won't find too many people enthused about him at any given Tea Party meetup, nor would he compel Rachel Maddow to raise her voice anywhere above 75 decibels or so.

[Napoleon]

Cantor is such an extremist that he doesn't even see the Tea Party as being extreme. In his mind, Democrats are the extreme ones. I don't think that plays well in a state that voted for Obama.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Cantor is from Richmond. Also, he's incapable of doing anything beyond spouting talking points. He's not a guy you want running in anything other than a safe Republican district.

[tpfkaw]

Cantor is such an extremist that he doesn't even see the Tea Party as being extreme. In his mind, Democrats are the extreme ones. I don't think that plays well in a state that voted for Obama.

You should probably get your news from sources that still are relentless hacks for the Democratic Party, but don't have headlines like "Right-wing extremist Cantor claims tea party is not extreme."  CNN, for example.  By the way, I wish Cantor was a right-wing extremist.  If the Republican Party was half as good as the Democrats make it out to be, I'd be a much happier person.

Anyways, Obama doesn't play well in said state which voted for Obama, but Eric Cantor, who raised $10 million last year and is popular in his home state, and is not appreciably more "extreme" than any other Republican, would obviously have the best shot at that seat.

[SvenssonRS]

New Mexico
D: Martin Heinrich
R: Gary Johnson

North Dakota
D: Byron Dorgan
R: Wayne Stenehjem or Drew Wrigley

Virginia
D: Tim Kaine
R: Eric Cantor

Connecticut
D: Chris Murphy
R: Jodi Rell or Chris Shays

Arizona
D: Gabrielle Giffords or (more likely) Janet Napolitano
R: Jeff Flake

Texas
D: Bill White
R: David Dewhurst

California
R: Tom Campbell

Delaware
R: Mike Castle

Florida
R: Jeb Bush

Hawaii
R: Linda Lingle

Maryland
R: Bob Ehrlich

Michigan
R: Mike Rogers

Minnesota
R: Norm Coleman

Missouri
R: Sam Graves

Montana
R: Denny Rehberg

Nebraska
R: Dave Heineman or Jon Bruning

New Jersey
R: Christine Todd Whitman or Kim Guadagno
I: Lou Dobbs

New York
R: Rudy Giuliani

Ohio
R: Mary Taylor

Pennsylvania
R: Jim Gerlach or Tom Ridge

Rhode Island
R: Don Carcieri

Washington
R: Rob McKenna

West Virginia
R: Shelley Moore Capito

Wisconsin
R: Paul Ryan

Vermont
R: Jim Douglas or Tom Salmon

Indiana
D: Baron Hill or Joe Donnelly

Maine
D: Mike Michaud or Chellie Pingree

Massachusetts
D: Vicki Kennedy

Mississippi
D: Jim Hood

Nevada
D: Shelley Berkley

Tennessee
D: Phil Bredesen

Utah
D: Jim Matheson

Wyoming
D: Dave Freudenthal

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I don't think fundraising power does much good if you're getting crushed in NoVA for being an extremist.

Would you consider Bob McDonnell to be an extremist?


Fundraising power allows you to position and define yourself in the eyes of the voters before your opponent does it for your, it also allows for the organization building in key swing areas as well. Don't underestimate the power of money in politics.

[Napoleon]

McDonnell is a former extremist, that's certain. I would give him the benefit of the doubt though. He did make sure that Palin didn't come to campaign for him, which Cantor was pushing for. Cuccinelli is an extremist.

[Miles]

Best candidates from each party:

AZ: Jeff Flake vs. Gabby Giffords
CA: Dianne Feinstein vs. Tom Campbell
CT: Chris Murphy vs. Jodi Rell
DE: Tom Carper vs. Mike Castle
FL: Bill Nelson vs. Jeb Bush
HI: Dan Akaka vs. Linda Lingle
IN: Dick Lugar vs. Evan Bayh
MD: Ben Cardin vs. Bob Ehrlich
ME: Olympia Snowe vs. Chille Pingree
MA: Scott Brown vs. Vickey Kennedy
MI: Debbie Stabenow vs. Mike Rogers
MN: Amy Klobuchar vs. Tim Pawlenty
MS: Roger Wicker vs. Gene Taylor
MO: Claire McCaskill vs. Jim Talent
MT: Brian Schweitzer vs. Denny Rehnberg
NB: Ben Nelson vs. Dave Heineman
NV: Ross Miller vs. Dean Heller
NJ: Bob Menendez vs. Chris Christie
NM: Martin Heinrich vs. Gary Johnson
NY: Kirsten Gillibrand vs. George Pataki
ND: Earl Pomery vs. Jack Dalrymple
OH: Ted Strickland vs. Mary Taylor
PA: Bob Casey vs. Jim Gerlach
RI: Sheldon Whitehouse vs.  Don Carieci
TN: Bob Corker vs Phil Bredesen
TX: David Dewhurst vs. Bill White
UT: Orrin Hatch vs. Jim Matheson
VT: Bernie Sanders vs. Jim Douglas
VA: Tim Kaine vs. Bob McDonnell
WA: Maria Cantwell vs. Rob McKenna
WV: Joe Manchin vs. Shelley Moore Capito
WI: Herb Kohl vs. some wealthy self-funding businessman
WY: John Barrasso vs. Dave Freudenthal

[Torie]

What is so "extremist" about Cuccinelli again?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

He's spent his term as Attorney General going on witch hunts against universities, gays, abortion providers, and so on, rather than actually doing his job.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

IN Richard Mourdock vs Pat Bauer

Lugar get defeated in the primary

[Mechaman]

Cantor is such an extremist that he doesn't even see the Tea Party as being extreme. In his mind, Democrats are the extreme ones. I don't think that plays well in a state that voted for Obama.

This coming from the guy who put down Jim McGovern as the best Democratic choice against Scott Brown?
Really?

I'm not a fan of Cantor but the idea that he is an extremist (at least compared to most other Republicans) is far fetched.  He seems to be the run of the mill average conservative Republican congressman.
That isn't to say however that he would make a great choice for a Senate nominee.