Obama/Biden vs. Palin/Bachmann with 1932 Economic Conditions

[Skill and Chance]

Consider an absolute worst case economic scenario in the second half of President Obama's term.  Assume that unemployment is approximately 24% in October of 2012.  GDP contracts 10% during the second quarter of 2012 with over 1.5 million workers losing their jobs during the summer alone.  The candidate's all maintain their current ideologies during the crisis.  Would Palin win?  Would it be a landslide like FDR vs. Hoover?  Let's see some maps!

[Likely Voter]

Are we to assume no 3rd party? I think that scenario is exactly the one that a major third party choice would emerge, like a Bloomberg who could self-fund.

[NHI]

This is tough! Palin fares the worst against Obama under the current situation. Now given a 1932 like Depression in 2032 I'd say it'd be close.

Palin pulls a narrows victory: 272-266.

Now, if a third party candidate emerged (Like: Bloomberg) then Palin loses, and it's a toss-up between Obama and Bloomberg.

[tpfkaw]

Under those conditions Palin would win every state but Vermont (which would be won by the independent candidacy of Bernie Sanders).  The Republican nominee would literally have to be David Duke to have a shot at losing (and even then the winner would be a strong centrist or conservative third-party candidacy).  Of course, that's not really a very likely scenario, is it?

[Inmate Trump]

I think it'd be a Palin landslide, but if this were the scenario by November '12, then any Republican will win in a landslide.  In fact, the only qualification for a candidate to win in a landslide would be that they aren't Obama.  The only state in the map below that I was unsure about is New York.  I think it might go either way, but would lean toward the Republican, given the economic conditions described in your post; it may even be a "swing" state in this scenario.  The Obama states in the map below would be won by much narrower margins than in '08.

Image Link

Palin: 438
Obama: 100

[5280]

Rep - 407
Obama - 131

[Person Man]

Wonder what would happen in the aftermath...That would be much more interesting.

[Skill and Chance]

Are we to assume no 3rd party? I think that scenario is exactly the one that a major third party choice would emerge, like a Bloomberg who could self-fund.

You are welcome to include Bloomberg if you want to.  In fact, I would like to see how people think that would turn out.  I think he legitimately could win the EC in this scenario, largely depending on just how strong the Democratic impulse is in CA and NY.  By the way, you can assume CA state unemployment would be >30% in late 2012 in this scenario.

[sentinel]

Why bother asking the question? You're creating an extreme scenario where the incumbent loses in a landslide. Save some space on the board and think it through next time.

[Skill and Chance]

Why bother asking the question? You're creating an extreme scenario where the incumbent loses in a landslide. Save some space on the board and think it through next time.

I have expanded it into a "could Bloomberg conceivably win?" context.  See the previous post.

[Miles]

PALIN-392
OBAMA-146

I'd say Republicans would gain 12 Senate seats as well:

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Obama would lose all but DC in this case. Even Hawaii will turn.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Obama gets primaried.

[Skill and Chance]

Obama would lose all but DC in this case. Even Hawaii will turn.

The interesting thing historically is that Hoover actually did admirably well given his circumstances.  He won 6 states and held Roosevelt under 60% of the popular vote.  He did better than McGovern, Mondale, or Goldwater.  Perhaps it  could be that Roosevelt's 57.4% is the absolute ceiling for a non-incumbent?  Even Eisenhower, who had the popularity of a deity in 1952, only managed 55%.

Edit: He did worse than Mondale percentage wise, but held his opponent to a lower PV percentage and won more EV.

[King]

Obama would lose all but DC in this case. Even Hawaii will turn.

The interesting thing historically is that Hoover actually did admirably well given his circumstances.  He won 6 states and held Roosevelt under 60% of the popular vote.  He did better than McGovern, Mondale, or Goldwater.  Perhaps it  could be that Roosevelt's 57.4% is the absolute ceiling for a non-incumbent?  Even Eisenhower, who had the popularity of a deity in 1952, only managed 55%.

60% is just a difficult number to achieve.  It's not like it happens frequently for incumbents.  Popular incumbents like Eisenhower and Reagan couldn't do it either.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Obama gets primaried.

Yeah, I'm thinking this.  Some random dark horse is called in and Obama might just concede.  He knows he can't win under such conditions, no matter who the GOP candidate is.

[Yelnoc]

Here is an elaboration on the scenario.  Does anyone want to make a map?



Obama does not run for a second term and returns to Illinois in disgrace.  He is advised by the Democratic Party leadership not to endorse the eventual nominee.  Joe Biden immediately enters the running.  Hillary Clinton, seeing the writing on the wall, rules herself out.  So does Howard Dean.  Russ Feingold jumps in and gains traction, beating Biden and a host of no-names to become the nominee.  He selects Governor Brian Schweitzer of Montana as his running mate.

The Republican Primary is much more heated.  Everyone who can run runs.  Palin's supporters use the caucus style to their advantage in Iowa and win that early state.  She skips New Hampshire, which is won by Romney as predicted, and then clinches the nomination with a victory in South Carolina.  Palin chooses Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina as her running mate.

Mayor Michael Bloomberg of New York senses his chance.  His announcement gains much buzz; polling shows him ahead of the broken Democratic Party candidate and severely unpopular Republican by large margins.  His campaign downplays some of his socially liberal views to pick up the Republican vote; instead he focuses on his fiscally conservative record though he admits to favoring government interference on matters of public welfare and climate change.  Bloomberg selects former Nebraska senator Chuck Hagel as his running mate.

After losing the Republican nomination, New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson defects to the Libertarian party and wins their nomination.  Johnson does not downplay his socially liberal positions like Bloomberg and runs a generally Libertarian campaign.  After a long wait, Ron Paul agrees to the Vice Presidential spot.  This pick gives the ticket a massive fundraising boost and super star status.

The constitution party endorses the Palin/DeMint ticket.  Some no-name wins the Green nomination and runs a decent campaign, winning about as many votes as Nader in 2000.

The 2012 Presidential debates are between Feingold, Palin, Bloomberg, and Johnson.  Feingold is generally seen as the best debater among them.  The Vice Presidential debate, featuring Schweitzer, DeMint, Hagel, and Paul, are generally viewed as the better debate; opinions on who won vary.

On election night, the nation is divided.  Nobody wants to vote for the Democrat, after all, it was a Democrat in office when the nation went to hell.  But Feingold seems like a different sort than Obama; some are willing to give him the benefit of a doubt.  Palin has made a fool of herself on the campaign trail and, in the process, lost much of the Libertarian side of the coalition to the Johnson/Paul libertarian dream ticket.  Bloomberg has picked up much of the Democratic and Independent vote along with some Republican moderates.

Many people won't bother voting in this election, further compounding the difficulty of predicting how states will go.  In the end, who knows?  The "experts" long stopped predicting and are awaiting the results.  Who do you think will win?  Could this one go to the (Republican) house?

[sentinel]

Here is an elaboration on the scenario.  Does anyone want to make a map?



Obama does not run for a second term and returns to Illinois in disgrace.  He is advised by the Democratic Party leadership not to endorse the eventual nominee.  Joe Biden immediately enters the running.  Hillary Clinton, seeing the writing on the wall, rules herself out.  So does Howard Dean.  Russ Feingold jumps in and gains traction, beating Biden and a host of no-names to become the nominee.  He selects Governor Brian Schweitzer of Montana as his running mate.

The Republican Primary is much more heated.  Everyone who can run runs.  Palin's supporters use the caucus style to their advantage in Iowa and win that early state.  She skips New Hampshire, which is won by Romney as predicted, and then clinches the nomination with a victory in South Carolina.  Palin chooses Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina as her running mate.

Mayor Michael Bloomberg of New York senses his chance.  His announcement gains much buzz; polling shows him ahead of the broken Democratic Party candidate and severely unpopular Republican by large margins.  His campaign downplays some of his socially liberal views to pick up the Republican vote; instead he focuses on his fiscally conservative record though he admits to favoring government interference on matters of public welfare and climate change.  Bloomberg selects former Nebraska senator Chuck Hagel as his running mate.

After losing the Republican nomination, New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson defects to the Libertarian party and wins their nomination.  Johnson does not downplay his socially liberal positions like Bloomberg and runs a generally Libertarian campaign.  After a long wait, Ron Paul agrees to the Vice Presidential spot.  This pick gives the ticket a massive fundraising boost and super star status.

The constitution party endorses the Palin/DeMint ticket.  Some no-name wins the Green nomination and runs a decent campaign, winning about as many votes as Nader in 2000.

The 2012 Presidential debates are between Feingold, Palin, Bloomberg, and Johnson.  Feingold is generally seen as the best debater among them.  The Vice Presidential debate, featuring Schweitzer, DeMint, Hagel, and Paul, are generally viewed as the better debate; opinions on who won vary.

On election night, the nation is divided.  Nobody wants to vote for the Democrat, after all, it was a Democrat in office when the nation went to hell.  But Feingold seems like a different sort than Obama; some are willing to give him the benefit of a doubt.  Palin has made a fool of herself on the campaign trail and, in the process, lost much of the Libertarian side of the coalition to the Johnson/Paul libertarian dream ticket.  Bloomberg has picked up much of the Democratic and Independent vote along with some Republican moderates.

Many people won't bother voting in this election, further compounding the difficulty of predicting how states will go.  In the end, who knows?  The "experts" long stopped predicting and are awaiting the results.  Who do you think will win?  Could this one go to the (Republican) house?

I think it definitely could, but remember it would go to the 'new' Congress which is elected on November 6, 2012. It would be interesting to see what happens and very hard to predict...low turnout would not benefit the Democratic ticket at all....

[Yelnoc]

Here is an elaboration on the scenario.  Does anyone want to make a map?



Obama does not run for a second term and returns to Illinois in disgrace.  He is advised by the Democratic Party leadership not to endorse the eventual nominee.  Joe Biden immediately enters the running.  Hillary Clinton, seeing the writing on the wall, rules herself out.  So does Howard Dean.  Russ Feingold jumps in and gains traction, beating Biden and a host of no-names to become the nominee.  He selects Governor Brian Schweitzer of Montana as his running mate.

The Republican Primary is much more heated.  Everyone who can run runs.  Palin's supporters use the caucus style to their advantage in Iowa and win that early state.  She skips New Hampshire, which is won by Romney as predicted, and then clinches the nomination with a victory in South Carolina.  Palin chooses Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina as her running mate.

Mayor Michael Bloomberg of New York senses his chance.  His announcement gains much buzz; polling shows him ahead of the broken Democratic Party candidate and severely unpopular Republican by large margins.  His campaign downplays some of his socially liberal views to pick up the Republican vote; instead he focuses on his fiscally conservative record though he admits to favoring government interference on matters of public welfare and climate change.  Bloomberg selects former Nebraska senator Chuck Hagel as his running mate.

After losing the Republican nomination, New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson defects to the Libertarian party and wins their nomination.  Johnson does not downplay his socially liberal positions like Bloomberg and runs a generally Libertarian campaign.  After a long wait, Ron Paul agrees to the Vice Presidential spot.  This pick gives the ticket a massive fundraising boost and super star status.

The constitution party endorses the Palin/DeMint ticket.  Some no-name wins the Green nomination and runs a decent campaign, winning about as many votes as Nader in 2000.

The 2012 Presidential debates are between Feingold, Palin, Bloomberg, and Johnson.  Feingold is generally seen as the best debater among them.  The Vice Presidential debate, featuring Schweitzer, DeMint, Hagel, and Paul, are generally viewed as the better debate; opinions on who won vary.

On election night, the nation is divided.  Nobody wants to vote for the Democrat, after all, it was a Democrat in office when the nation went to hell.  But Feingold seems like a different sort than Obama; some are willing to give him the benefit of a doubt.  Palin has made a fool of herself on the campaign trail and, in the process, lost much of the Libertarian side of the coalition to the Johnson/Paul libertarian dream ticket.  Bloomberg has picked up much of the Democratic and Independent vote along with some Republican moderates.

Many people won't bother voting in this election, further compounding the difficulty of predicting how states will go.  In the end, who knows?  The "experts" long stopped predicting and are awaiting the results.  Who do you think will win?  Could this one go to the (Republican) house?

I think it definitely could, but remember it would go to the 'new' Congress which is elected on November 6, 2012. It would be interesting to see what happens and very hard to predict...low turnout would not benefit the Democratic ticket at all....

Wait, seriously?  I thought it was the outgoing congress.  Damn, now I'm going to have to rewrite my timeline...

[sentinel]

Yup, new Congress.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Obama gets primaried.

By Alvin Greene.