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Author Topic: The GOP path to victory  (Read 1212 times)
Reaganfan
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« on: February 20, 2011, 03:44:03 pm »
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In my opinion, the GOP's best shot at winning the Presidency next year, is to win just a few states, and solidify what is already red.

Now, what do I mean by solidify? States like West Virginia, Mississippi, Arkansas, Oklahoma...I don't think they're going anywhere. If anything, it's possible the President does worse than in 2008 especially if the Republicans nominate someone more conservative-appealing than John McCain.



So, let's start with "solid" states, more or less. Obama vs....let's call the GOP nominee "Ginromdaorum" for now.

Obama: 210
Ginromdaorum: 139
Undecided: 189

Now, if the GOP can hold the McCain states, then it can focus on pulling back Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia and the pesky Nebraska CD.



Ginromdaorum: 219
Obama: 210
Undecided: 109

Now, if the GOP can win back Florida, and Ohio, both of which (especially Florida) have been trending well for Republicans, that puts them just 4 electoral votes away...but it becomes difficult.



Ginromdaorum: 266
Obama: 246
Undecided: 26

They need one of those four states: Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado. I, personally, think New Mexico is Obama territory in 2012. Nevada, Colorado and Iowa would be the most likely to flip back. If the GOP wins, let's say, Nevada....it's done.



Ginromdaorum: 272
Obama: 266

I'd say the key is the west. Ohio, Florida and Virginia in my opinion may actually be easier for the GOP to win back than Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa. Anyone else agree?
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« Reply #1 on: February 20, 2011, 03:51:08 pm »
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You make it sound so easy. Really, I can see a lot of the state from map three going Republican. Assuming they all do, that, as you said, leaves four electoral votes to pick up.
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« Reply #2 on: February 20, 2011, 03:54:54 pm »
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I think that Ohio and Florida will be more likely to go Republcan that Virginia, both of the former have been trending Republican, while Virginia has been trending Democratic.

Besides that, I think Republicans might do better to focus on Iowa instead of the west.  
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« Reply #3 on: February 20, 2011, 03:56:04 pm »
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Why do you think Iowa is still so Democratic? The state voted Republican at the congressional level in 2010 (though the delegation might confuse you a bit, but all the Dems basically hung on by a thread).

I agree with you about NM, NV and even CO being more Democratic than Ohio and Florida. Same with VA, but I expect VA to be about even and CO isn't too far from that. Maybe D+2, so as Democratic as Pennsylvania basically.
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anvi
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« Reply #4 on: February 20, 2011, 04:06:31 pm »
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I agree with the consensus above; Iowa makes a much better target for the GOP to flip in 2012 than any Western state. 

Nevada Democrats held their jobs in 2010 even in the worst of years, and when you combine the 15% Hispanic population, strong union organization in Vegas and Reno and the strength of the women's vote, which the GOP hasn't much been trying to win lately, I think Nevada is definitely lean Dem in 2012. 

Iowa, on the other hand, has turned right.  The once popular Dem governor Chet Culver was beaten handily last year, Grassley easily kept his seat, and Democrats who held their seats in the CDs housing Des Moines, Cedar Rapids and Iowa City only did so by narrow pluralities.  Iowa has a negligible liberal population, and voters who gave the state to Obama in 2008 did so because of a flagging economy, whose labor market still hasn't recovered. 

If the Republicans can find a nominee whom Iowa voters also like, they have a better chance of flipping that state in 2012 than they do anything in the West.
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Akno21
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« Reply #5 on: February 20, 2011, 04:10:53 pm »
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Why does Rick Santorum get to be part of your Republican amalgamation?

And the GOP's path to victory is the economy not getting much better. Which states they focus on won't make a whole lot of difference.
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brittain33
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« Reply #6 on: February 20, 2011, 04:15:32 pm »
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This isn't a path to victory, it's a collection of states that gets the Republicans to 270. The path to win those states is still very unclear.
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anvi
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« Reply #7 on: February 20, 2011, 04:24:10 pm »
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About a dozen states will be very tough and competitive fights.  Obama is not a shabby campaigner, and he is not exactly inept at raising money and mobilizing people either.  But the GOP has some wind at its back.  Lots will happen in the next year and a half too.  It will be interesting. 
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #8 on: February 20, 2011, 04:29:18 pm »
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If you are a Republican in the current environment, the first priority is securing Florida, then going after OH,IA, and VA.  The GOP is mathematically out of the running without FL, and the Midwest is probably an easier region to flip than the Mountain West.  

If you are Obama, your first priority should be securing PA, then VA and CO.  If Obama wins those three, then he has been re-elected.  With VA and PA, he needs just one of NM, NV, or IA to get to 270.  Expect a lot of campaigning action in VA on both sides, and a lot of Republican activity in FL.  Obama might be better off pulling some resources out of FL and using them to pin down CO, NV, NM, and NH.  I expect FL to go Republican if the election is any closer than 2008.  
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« Reply #9 on: February 20, 2011, 04:30:34 pm »
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I'd say Florida and Ohio would be easier for the GOP to win back than Virginia.
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King
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« Reply #10 on: February 20, 2011, 04:37:35 pm »
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The Presidency is just a bonus for the GOP on the tails on a declining economy.

It'd far more reasonable for them to try and win the Senate and just have a non-threatening Presidential candidate like Huckabee or Romney who won't scare off the voters.
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« Reply #11 on: February 20, 2011, 04:54:07 pm »
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The Presidency is just a bonus for the GOP on the tails on a declining economy.

It'd far more reasonable for them to try and win the Senate and just have a non-threatening Presidential candidate like Huckabee or Romney who won't scare off the voters.

Do you think Obama's the new FDR or something? It seems like you think that it's impossible for Republicans to win the Presidency in 2012.
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« Reply #12 on: February 20, 2011, 05:01:03 pm »
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But HERE is Obama's path to winning every state.  For starters, hold all his 2008 states.  Should be doable.  He's won them before.  Then win Missouri which he almost won in 2008.  Then some other states like Montana and who knows, Tennessee.  Then once those are secured focus on winning the remaining states.  If he can pull this off he's pretty much on his way to winning all 50 states.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #13 on: February 20, 2011, 05:10:20 pm »
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The Presidency is just a bonus for the GOP on the tails on a declining economy.

It'd far more reasonable for them to try and win the Senate and just have a non-threatening Presidential candidate like Huckabee or Romney who won't scare off the voters.

Do you think Obama's the new FDR or something? It seems like you think that it's impossible for Republicans to win the Presidency in 2012.

I don't think many of us here believe that Obama is unbeatable in 2012.  I definitely don't.  I think what may of us are coming to realize is that if the election is close, which is looking increasingly likely, Obama has a significant edge over any potential opponent.

Obama is personally much more popular than the rest of the the Democratic Party, and the electoral math strongly suggests that the GOP will be running into the Al Gore problem unless they win >51% of the PV.  He's much more of an Eisenhower than an FDR, and this is reflected in the increasingly bright congressional picture for Republicans, which should probably be their first priority.
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opebo
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« Reply #14 on: February 20, 2011, 05:15:41 pm »
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This Ginromdaorum guy sounds too scary even for Republican voters.  A little foreign too.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #15 on: February 20, 2011, 05:23:23 pm »
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Interesting analysis, but I think that economic conditions and demographics changes things a bit.  I agree with the OP that  the GOP path to victory starts with holding the McCain states then grabbing IN, NC, OH & FL. But this would only be possible if we assume that the economy is actually a bit worse than it is today. As for the 'final four' states I agree that NV and IA are in the list, but if you look at polling over the last few months then CO and NM are safer for the dems than PA and VA, especially NM which seems almost out of reach. PA seems especially vulnerable due to the economy.

So the 'final battleground' scenario (again assuming worsening economic conditions but not a double-dip recession), would look like this:

GOP candidate: 253
Obama: 240

« Last Edit: February 20, 2011, 05:25:20 pm by Likely Voter »Logged

pbrower2a
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« Reply #16 on: February 20, 2011, 05:25:41 pm »
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I agree with the consensus above; Iowa makes a much better target for the GOP to flip in 2012 than any Western state. 

Nevada Democrats held their jobs in 2010 even in the worst of years, and when you combine the 15% Hispanic population, strong union organization in Vegas and Reno and the strength of the women's vote, which the GOP hasn't much been trying to win lately, I think Nevada is definitely lean Dem in 2012. 

Iowa, on the other hand, has turned right.  The once popular Dem governor Chet Culver was beaten handily last year, Grassley easily kept his seat, and Democrats who held their seats in the CDs housing Des Moines, Cedar Rapids and Iowa City only did so by narrow pluralities.  Iowa has a negligible liberal population, and voters who gave the state to Obama in 2008 did so because of a flagging economy, whose labor market still hasn't recovered. 

If the Republicans can find a nominee whom Iowa voters also like, they have a better chance of flipping that state in 2012 than they do anything in the West.

I had doubts about Iowa being a hold for President Obama in 2012 until I saw this poll about a month ago:

Quote
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 50%
Disapprove...................................................... 43%
Not sure .......................................................... 7%

The 2010 election may have been a fluke, one in which the bulk of the campaigning was done by shadowy front groups. If those front groups succeed again in 2012, then liberalism is dead in America for decades. But if they don;t succeed...

The GOP nominee will not have any ties to Iowa, and that is about what the GOP would have to do to flip the state.

Liberal-leaning voters are less likely to vote in off-year elections. It will be up to the Tea Party types to show coherent, effective solutions to economic problems while not offending secular sensibilities of too many people. So far the Hard Right has not been so convincing.

The GOP has to hope for one of several things to happen for it to fully consolidate power (including the defeat of President Obama) in 2012:

1. The President  has a crippling scandal that breaks before then.

2. The President has an affair, especially with a non-black woman.

3. The economy melts down again and the Democrats are largely seen culpable.

4. The President faces a military debacle (North Korea invades and conquers South Korea) or diplomatic debacle as a shaky ally of the US becomes ferociously anti-American, as was so with Iran in 1979. Egypt may have looked like such an opportunity, but that chance for Presidential failure seems to be resolved as well as possible for the US.

5. The Religious Right makes big gains among the populace and creates a big new chunk of the electorate willing to vote for any hardships in This World if they bring favor at the Pearly Gates.

6. The GOP manages to have a charismatic nominee (person unknown) who can appeal across regional lines (like Ronald Reagan) with the prospect of a better world through greater profits and lower pay.

President Obama did little to refute the Orwellian bilge from the Hard Right in 2010. With himself as the prime target and knowing it, he will campaign against every calumny. Don't count on the same Hard Right campaign of soundbite smears to be as effective in 2012 as in 2010.   Voters will well know the code words of the Hard Right in 2012.  
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #17 on: February 20, 2011, 05:36:16 pm »
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Another thing to consider, is that PPP's polling has NC voting in line with the simulated "national margin" and VA voting slightly to the left of it, with CO, NV, and NM voting left of VA.  While I remain unconvinced of this, it would be a severe challenge for the GOP if NC has actually shifted that  dramatically.  If NC ends up being EVEN PVI or only R+1, then the Democratic electoral college advantage becomes insurmountable unless the GOP wins PA or WI.
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GPORTER
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« Reply #18 on: February 20, 2011, 05:48:56 pm »
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Under Reaganfan's scenario, I think the GOP is more likely to carry Colorado than Nevada...
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« Reply #19 on: February 20, 2011, 06:39:43 pm »
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So what you're saying is that all the GOP candidate has to do is win enough states to pass 270 EVs? Simple enough, I suppose. In reality it's going to come down to who the Republicans nominate and how good they are stating the obvious.

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« Reply #20 on: February 20, 2011, 08:16:12 pm »
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The Presidency is just a bonus for the GOP on the tails on a declining economy.

It'd far more reasonable for them to try and win the Senate and just have a non-threatening Presidential candidate like Huckabee or Romney who won't scare off the voters.

Do you think Obama's the new FDR or something? It seems like you think that it's impossible for Republicans to win the Presidency in 2012.

Presidents far less successful or interesting than FDR have won re-election without contest.

It's not impossible, but things are clearly not trending in that direction.  He is far more popular than the Democratic party as a whole and the opposition doesn't have a home run hitter.

At best, I see at as 2004.  Bush could have been beaten, but the Democrats couldn't have beaten Bush.  The race might be close, but on election night the result will only be in doubt to Diebold conspiracy theorists.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #21 on: February 21, 2011, 01:07:05 pm »
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If you are a Republican in the current environment, the first priority is securing Florida, then going after OH,IA, and VA.  The GOP is mathematically out of the running without FL, and the Midwest is probably an easier region to flip than the Mountain West.  

If you are Obama, your first priority should be securing PA, then VA and CO.  If Obama wins those three, then he has been re-elected.  With VA and PA, he needs just one of NM, NV, or IA to get to 270.  Expect a lot of campaigning action in VA on both sides, and a lot of Republican activity in FL.  Obama might be better off pulling some resources out of FL and using them to pin down CO, NV, NM, and NH.  I expect FL to go Republican if the election is any closer than 2008.  

Depending on how this union thing plays out, I think the absolute utter ceiling for any Republican is WI/MI/PA, with WI probably a bit easier than the other 2.

You can give up VA if you win WI. It's 3 less electoral votes, but those 3 aren't determinative. Either Iowa or Nevada would put you at 269 instead of 272, and 269 is still a GOP win.
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« Reply #22 on: February 21, 2011, 04:03:07 pm »
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This is the only way I see it, and NH would probably be a lean for Obama. VA, FL, NC, OH, IN, CO are the best possibilities, unless someone can flip Wisconsin.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #23 on: February 21, 2011, 05:47:39 pm »
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if the republicans win every R+ PVI state and the EVEN state of Colorado plus every D+1 state, they still only have 254 votes. So that leaves the D+2 states to be the deciding factor. Those states are Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #24 on: February 21, 2011, 06:13:13 pm »
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If you are a Republican in the current environment, the first priority is securing Florida, then going after OH,IA, and VA.  The GOP is mathematically out of the running without FL, and the Midwest is probably an easier region to flip than the Mountain West.  

If you are Obama, your first priority should be securing PA, then VA and CO.  If Obama wins those three, then he has been re-elected.  With VA and PA, he needs just one of NM, NV, or IA to get to 270.  Expect a lot of campaigning action in VA on both sides, and a lot of Republican activity in FL.  Obama might be better off pulling some resources out of FL and using them to pin down CO, NV, NM, and NH.  I expect FL to go Republican if the election is any closer than 2008.  

Depending on how this union thing plays out, I think the absolute utter ceiling for any Republican is WI/MI/PA, with WI probably a bit easier than the other 2.

You can give up VA if you win WI. It's 3 less electoral votes, but those 3 aren't determinative. Either Iowa or Nevada would put you at 269 instead of 272, and 269 is still a GOP win.

WI and PA are the Republican "checkmate" states in the coming election, meaning that it becomes virtually impossible for the Dems to win with their present coalition if the GOP takes either of these states. 

However, it's an extremely bad idea for the Republicans to give up on VA when neighboring NC is polling left of FL and the Democrats are holding their national convention there.  NC and FL are Democratic checkmate states in 2012, and if NC truly votes left of both FL and OH, then it becomes a huge problem for the GOP.  Similarly, if the Dems give up on OH and IN, then they need to be extremely careful about the message they are sending to PA and WI.

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