The GOP path to victory

[Skill and Chance]

If you are a Republican in the current environment, the first priority is securing Florida, then going after OH,IA, and VA.  The GOP is mathematically out of the running without FL, and the Midwest is probably an easier region to flip than the Mountain West.  

If you are Obama, your first priority should be securing PA, then VA and CO.  If Obama wins those three, then he has been re-elected.  With VA and PA, he needs just one of NM, NV, or IA to get to 270.  Expect a lot of campaigning action in VA on both sides, and a lot of Republican activity in FL.  Obama might be better off pulling some resources out of FL and using them to pin down CO, NV, NM, and NH.  I expect FL to go Republican if the election is any closer than 2008.  

[Skill and Chance]

The Presidency is just a bonus for the GOP on the tails on a declining economy.

It'd far more reasonable for them to try and win the Senate and just have a non-threatening Presidential candidate like Huckabee or Romney who won't scare off the voters.

Do you think Obama's the new FDR or something? It seems like you think that it's impossible for Republicans to win the Presidency in 2012.

I don't think many of us here believe that Obama is unbeatable in 2012.  I definitely don't.  I think what may of us are coming to realize is that if the election is close, which is looking increasingly likely, Obama has a significant edge over any potential opponent.

Obama is personally much more popular than the rest of the the Democratic Party, and the electoral math strongly suggests that the GOP will be running into the Al Gore problem unless they win >51% of the PV.  He's much more of an Eisenhower than an FDR, and this is reflected in the increasingly bright congressional picture for Republicans, which should probably be their first priority.

[Skill and Chance]

Another thing to consider, is that PPP's polling has NC voting in line with the simulated "national margin" and VA voting slightly to the left of it, with CO, NV, and NM voting left of VA.  While I remain unconvinced of this, it would be a severe challenge for the GOP if NC has actually shifted that  dramatically.  If NC ends up being EVEN PVI or only R+1, then the Democratic electoral college advantage becomes insurmountable unless the GOP wins PA or WI.

[Skill and Chance]

If you are a Republican in the current environment, the first priority is securing Florida, then going after OH,IA, and VA.  The GOP is mathematically out of the running without FL, and the Midwest is probably an easier region to flip than the Mountain West.  

If you are Obama, your first priority should be securing PA, then VA and CO.  If Obama wins those three, then he has been re-elected.  With VA and PA, he needs just one of NM, NV, or IA to get to 270.  Expect a lot of campaigning action in VA on both sides, and a lot of Republican activity in FL.  Obama might be better off pulling some resources out of FL and using them to pin down CO, NV, NM, and NH.  I expect FL to go Republican if the election is any closer than 2008.  

Depending on how this union thing plays out, I think the absolute utter ceiling for any Republican is WI/MI/PA, with WI probably a bit easier than the other 2.

You can give up VA if you win WI. It's 3 less electoral votes, but those 3 aren't determinative. Either Iowa or Nevada would put you at 269 instead of 272, and 269 is still a GOP win.

WI and PA are the Republican "checkmate" states in the coming election, meaning that it becomes virtually impossible for the Dems to win with their present coalition if the GOP takes either of these states. 

However, it's an extremely bad idea for the Republicans to give up on VA when neighboring NC is polling left of FL and the Democrats are holding their national convention there.  NC and FL are Democratic checkmate states in 2012, and if NC truly votes left of both FL and OH, then it becomes a huge problem for the GOP.  Similarly, if the Dems give up on OH and IN, then they need to be extremely careful about the message they are sending to PA and WI.