Colorado the next California?

[5280]

With the influx of people from the west coast and north east moving to this state, do you think it will become more expensive and people start to move out of CO in a couple of decades (2040-2070)? I notice my home state has become more left-wing recently and some (mainly Conservatives) are moving to cheaper cost of living states.

[phk]

Probably.

ex-Californians who move to Colorado are somewhat liberal, unlike those who head to Idaho or Arizona.

[5280]

I agree, keep getting that vibe from new people who move here.  Also, I think Texas will become the new Colorado, moderate and less 'cowboy'

[Holmes]

Colorado will be Colorado and Texas will be Texas. But in terms of having similar politics to California, I don't think so. It's hard to look at the 2010 results in Colorado and make any sense of them because Republicans chose such horrible candidates, but the Denver suburbs and the latino pockets are becoming more Democratic, and Colorado Springs and surroundings are staying Republican. So the state should lean Democratic more than not in the near future.

But the liberal parts of Colorado don't have as much sway as the liberal parts of California do in statewide politics. I mean, the majority of statewide candidates in California are from the Bay Area. But I don't liberal politicians will have as much support in Colorado as they do in California.

[Person Man]

So Colorado will probably look more like the upper midwest than west coast...and perhaps Texas will eventually look more like Florida.

[freepcrusher]

I look at it this way: The Front Range reminds me of politically of southern California, or at least southern california 25-30 years ago.

Denver and Boulder is sort of like LA. It is the big city and the main event. Both cities are culturally liberal and have a lot of things to do. Denver is similar to LA too in that it has a large hispanic population.

Arapahoe county sort of reminds me of the area between LA and Orange County like Lakewood or Long Beach. Very swing territory.

Douglas County reminds me a lot of Orange County. Basically masterplanistan.

Colorado Springs is like San Diego in the sense that it has a huge military presence and a right wing reputation.

The Rocky Mountains is sort of like the pacific ocean and the plains to the east is kind of like the desert.

Greeley of course is Bakersfield. A country @$$ town in the hinterlands with a lot of mexicans and rednecks.

[Person Man]

I look at it this way: The Front Range reminds me of politically of southern California, or at least southern california 25-30 years ago.

Denver and Boulder is sort of like LA. It is the big city and the main event. Both cities are culturally liberal and have a lot of things to do. Denver is similar to LA too in that it has a large hispanic population.

Arapahoe county sort of reminds me of the area between LA and Orange County like Lakewood or Long Beach. Very swing territory.

Douglas County reminds me a lot of Orange County. Basically masterplanistan.

Colorado Springs is like San Diego in the sense that it has a huge military presence and a right wing reputation.

The Rocky Mountains is sort of like the pacific ocean and the plains to the east is kind of like the desert.

Greeley of course is Bakersfield. A country @$$ town in the hinterlands with a lot of mexicans and rednecks.

Wow. Makes a lot of sense.

[Mechaman]

I look at it this way: The Front Range reminds me of politically of southern California, or at least southern california 25-30 years ago.

Denver and Boulder is sort of like LA. It is the big city and the main event. Both cities are culturally liberal and have a lot of things to do. Denver is similar to LA too in that it has a large hispanic population.

Arapahoe county sort of reminds me of the area between LA and Orange County like Lakewood or Long Beach. Very swing territory.

Douglas County reminds me a lot of Orange County. Basically masterplanistan.

Colorado Springs is like San Diego in the sense that it has a huge military presence and a right wing reputation.

The Rocky Mountains is sort of like the pacific ocean and the plains to the east is kind of like the desert.

Greeley of course is Bakersfield. A country @$$ town in the hinterlands with a lot of mexicans and rednecks.

Wow. Makes a lot of sense.

Holy sh*t.  That is so true.

[Sbane]

I look at it this way: The Front Range reminds me of politically of southern California, or at least southern california 25-30 years ago.

Denver and Boulder is sort of like LA. It is the big city and the main event. Both cities are culturally liberal and have a lot of things to do. Denver is similar to LA too in that it has a large hispanic population.

Arapahoe county sort of reminds me of the area between LA and Orange County like Lakewood or Long Beach. Very swing territory.

Douglas County reminds me a lot of Orange County. Basically masterplanistan.

Colorado Springs is like San Diego in the sense that it has a huge military presence and a right wing reputation.

The Rocky Mountains is sort of like the pacific ocean and the plains to the east is kind of like the desert.

Greeley of course is Bakersfield. A country @$$ town in the hinterlands with a lot of mexicans and rednecks.

Mostly agree. Disagree with Colorado Springs being comparable to San Diego though.

[Napoleon]

Wouldn't Boulder be the equivalent of the Bay Area (white liberals) and Denver is LA (diversity)? Colorado Springs would probably be Orange County.

[freepcrusher]

Mostly agree. Disagree with Colorado Springs being comparable to San Diego though.

Today, I would agree with you disagreeing. San Diego County, despite voting for Whitman and Fiorina, is now competitive territory for both parties. 25-30 years ago, it was just as conservative/republican as Colorado Springs is now.

[Smash255]

Need to see the 2012 results first, but more than likely (and the polls back this up), Colorado looks like its going to surpass swing state and become more of a Dem lean state

The Denver suburbs becoming more and more Democratic as well as the continued Hispanic growth will make it harder and harder for Colorado Springs and Douglas to be able to out vote Boulder and Denver  Also with Douglass's continued growth, while still likely to be quite Republican will be less and less so.

[5280]

From 1984 to 2008, you can see how the counties from the mountains were blue and went red.  Denver county stayed red from 1984 and so on. Boulder county voted for Reagan!

1984 (last election year of Rep reliable status)


1988 (turning point of swing state status)


1992


1996


2000


2004


2008 (turning point of turning Dem?)


2012 (my guess)


If the GOP cannot get Jefferson county, Broomfield county, or Arapahoe county, then it's probably a lost cause.

[Person Man]

I really wanna see a 50.50 universal shift county map.

[DS0816]

2012 (my guess)


If the GOP cannot get Jefferson county, Broomfield county, or Arapahoe county, then it's probably a lost cause.

My guess (though I'm responding without scrutinizing too much of your map) Larimer (Fort Collins) and greater Denver counties of Arapahoe (Littleton) and Jefferson (Golden) vote the same. Been the routine.

I predict Barack Obama will, as he did in 2008, win those counties for re-election in 2012 … while he carries the State of Colorado with a margin that is, as was the case in 2008, closely reflective with of his national margin.

[5280]

2012 (my guess)


If the GOP cannot get Jefferson county, Broomfield county, or Arapahoe county, then it's probably a lost cause.

My guess (though I'm responding without scrutinizing too much of your map) Larimer (Fort Collins) and greater Denver counties of Arapahoe (Littleton) and Jefferson (Golden) vote the same. Been the routine.

I predict Barack Obama will, as he did in 2008, win those counties for re-election in 2012 … while he carries the State of Colorado with a margin that is, as was the case in 2008, closely reflective with of his national margin.

It will be a closer election, he's more likely to lose more counties in 2012.  The economy hasn't improved one bit unless you like living in a big government society, vote for Obama in 2012 (I'm not).

[Person Man]

That would be like Obama staying in the mid 40s though. Unless there is a MASSIVE and SUSTAINED meltdown- we lose a war or large skirmish or go into a double-dip, it appears his floor is 49-50%.

[DS0816]

2012 (my guess)


If the GOP cannot get Jefferson county, Broomfield county, or Arapahoe county, then it’s probably a lost cause.

With President Obama winning re-election in 2012, make the following county changes:

• Flip some of your R’s to the D’s: Larimer (Fort Collins) and Jefferson (Golden); as well as Las Animas (Trinidad), Ouray (Ouray), Huerfanao (Walsenburg), San Juan (Silverton), Routt (Steamboat Springs), and LaPlata (Durango)

• 2008 R to 2012 D Pickups: Garfield (Glenwood Springs) and Chaffee (Salida)

• ^ 60% D: Routt; along with Gilpin (Central City), Gunnison (Gunnison), Clear Creek (Georgetown), Saguache (Saguache), Summit (Breckinridge), Lake (Leadville), Eagle (Eagle) and, of course, Pueblo (Pueblo)

At this point, I’d figure on Obama getting re-elected nationally with a margin around 10.50% over his Republican opponent. With Colo., he’d carry the rising bellwether beween 12.00% and 12.49%.

[5280]

2012 (my guess)


If the GOP cannot get Jefferson county, Broomfield county, or Arapahoe county, then it’s probably a lost cause.

With President Obama winning re-election in 2012, make the following county changes:

• Flip some of your R’s to the D’s: Larimer (Fort Collins) and Jefferson (Golden); as well as Las Animas (Trinidad), Ouray (Ouray), Huerfanao (Walsenburg), San Juan (Silverton), Routt (Steamboat Springs), and LaPlata (Durango)

• 2008 R to 2012 D Pickups: Garfield (Glenwood Springs) and Chaffee (Salida)

• ^ 60% D: Routt; along with Gilpin (Central City), Gunnison (Gunnison), Clear Creek (Georgetown), Saguache (Saguache), Summit (Breckinridge), Lake (Leadville), Eagle (Eagle) and, of course, Pueblo (Pueblo)

At this point, I’d figure on Obama getting re-elected nationally with a margin around 10.50% over his Republican opponent. With Colo., he’d carry the rising bellwether beween 12.00% and 12.49%.

'With President Obama winning re-election in 2012, make the following county changes'

You have that wrong because you don't know if he's going to get reelected. Don't assume Colorado is going Democrat automatically in 2012.  What if Obama decides to get the police to arrest Tea Party Members for disagreeing with him for no apparent reason? (It's over exaggerating)

What boggles my mind is some of you 'assume' he's going to win no matter what happens to the US.

[Person Man]

Under that logic, we should prepare for California to vote for Huckabee and Texas to vote for Obama. Could happen, but its not in the realm of likely events.

[Sbane]

2012 (my guess)


If the GOP cannot get Jefferson county, Broomfield county, or Arapahoe county, then it’s probably a lost cause.

With President Obama winning re-election in 2012, make the following county changes:

• Flip some of your R’s to the D’s: Larimer (Fort Collins) and Jefferson (Golden); as well as Las Animas (Trinidad), Ouray (Ouray), Huerfanao (Walsenburg), San Juan (Silverton), Routt (Steamboat Springs), and LaPlata (Durango)

• 2008 R to 2012 D Pickups: Garfield (Glenwood Springs) and Chaffee (Salida)

• ^ 60% D: Routt; along with Gilpin (Central City), Gunnison (Gunnison), Clear Creek (Georgetown), Saguache (Saguache), Summit (Breckinridge), Lake (Leadville), Eagle (Eagle) and, of course, Pueblo (Pueblo)

At this point, I’d figure on Obama getting re-elected nationally with a margin around 10.50% over his Republican opponent. With Colo., he’d carry the rising bellwether beween 12.00% and 12.49%.

'With President Obama winning re-election in 2012, make the following county changes'

You have that wrong because you don't know if he's going to get reelected. Don't assume Colorado is going Democrat automatically in 2012.  What if Obama decides to get the police to arrest Tea Party Members for disagreeing with him for no apparent reason? (It's over exaggerating)

What boggles my mind is some of you 'assume' he's going to win no matter what happens to the US.

I think the question is whether it's likely Obama is going to win re-election. Though I will admit his chances of getting a 10%+ margin is much lower than his chances of re-election.

[Mechaman]

2012 (my guess)


If the GOP cannot get Jefferson county, Broomfield county, or Arapahoe county, then it’s probably a lost cause.

With President Obama winning re-election in 2012, make the following county changes:

• Flip some of your R’s to the D’s: Larimer (Fort Collins) and Jefferson (Golden); as well as Las Animas (Trinidad), Ouray (Ouray), Huerfanao (Walsenburg), San Juan (Silverton), Routt (Steamboat Springs), and LaPlata (Durango)

• 2008 R to 2012 D Pickups: Garfield (Glenwood Springs) and Chaffee (Salida)

• ^ 60% D: Routt; along with Gilpin (Central City), Gunnison (Gunnison), Clear Creek (Georgetown), Saguache (Saguache), Summit (Breckinridge), Lake (Leadville), Eagle (Eagle) and, of course, Pueblo (Pueblo)

At this point, I’d figure on Obama getting re-elected nationally with a margin around 10.50% over his Republican opponent. With Colo., he’d carry the rising bellwether beween 12.00% and 12.49%.

'With President Obama winning re-election in 2012, make the following county changes'

You have that wrong because you don't know if he's going to get reelected. Don't assume Colorado is going Democrat automatically in 2012.  What if Obama decides to get the police to arrest Tea Party Members for disagreeing with him for no apparent reason? (It's over exaggerating)

What boggles my mind is some of you 'assume' he's going to win no matter what happens to the US.

I think the question is whether it's likely Obama is going to win re-election. Though I will admit his chances of getting a 10%+ margin is much lower than his chances of re-election.

^^^^
This.
Especially considering the extreme possibility that he would have to win the election in order to win the popular vote by 10% (barring extreme voter fraud).

[DS0816]

I think the question is whether it’s likely Obama is going to win re-election. Though I will admit his chances of getting a 10%+ margin is much lower than his chances of re-election.

If 2012 is re-election for President Barack Obama, who was first elected in 2008 with a margin of 7.26% and an electoral-vote count of 365, he will likely have gains with both; that’s because the history shows incumbent tends to gain in popular vote, national margin (over his challenger), and Electoral College total.

Looking at those elected to a second term (not counting the non-consecutive for Grover Cleveland—despite also gaining—who was unseated in 1888 and returned to unseat Benjamin Harrison as a party pickup in 1892) …

Republican v. Democrat (1856…)
• Abraham Lincoln (R): 1860 first/regional election (10.13% over popular-vote runner-up Stephen Douglas, D), 180 electoral votes; 1864 re-election (10.08% over challenger George McCellan, D), 212 electoral votes.
Re-election margin increase: –0.05%; Electoral vote increase: +32

• Ulysses Grant (R): 1868 first election (5.32% over popular-vote runner-up Horatio Seymour, D), 214 electoral votes. 1872 re-election (11.80% over challenger Horace Greeley, D), 286 electoral votes.
Re-election margin increase: +6.48%; Electoral vote increase: +72

• William McKinley (R): 1896 first election (3.31% over popular-vote runner-up William Jennings Bryan, D), 271 electoral votes; 1900 re-election (6.12% over challenger William Jennings Bryan, D), 292 electoral votes.
Re-election margin increase: +2.81%; Electoral vote increase: +21

• Woodrow Wilson (D): 1912 first election (a three-way race with 18.67% over unseated William Howard Taft, R), 435 electoral votes; 1916 re-election (3.12% over challenger Charles Evans Hughes, R), 277 electoral votes.
Re-election margin increase: –15.55%; Electoral vote increase: –158

• Franklin Roosevelt (D): 1932 first election (17.76% in unseating incumbent Herbert Hoover, R), 472 electoral votes; 1936 re-election (24.26% over challenger Alf Landon, R), 523 electoral votes.
Re-election margin increase: +6.50%; Electoral vote increase: +51

• Dwight Eisenhower (R): 1952 first election (11.18% over popular-vote runner-up Adlai Stevenson, D), 442 electoral votes; 1956 re-election (15.40% over challenger Adlai Stevenson, D), 457 electoral votes.
Re-election margin increase: +4.22%; Electoral vote increase: +15

• Richard Nixon (R): 1968 first election (0.70% in a three-way race while winning popular-vote over incumbent party nominee and Vice President Hubert Humphrey, D), 301 electoral votes; 1972 re-election (23.15% over challenger George McGovern, D), 520 electoral votes.
Re-election margin increase: +22.45%; Electoral vote increase: +219

• Ronald Reagan (R): 1980 first election (9.75% in a three-way race with unseating incumbent Jimmy Carter, D), 489 electoral votes; 1984 re-election (18.22% over challenger Walter Mondale, D), 525 electoral votes.
Re-election margin increase: +8.47%; Electoral vote increase: +36

• Bill Clinton (D): 1992 first election (5.56% in a three-way race with unseating incumbent George Bush, R), 370 electoral votes; 1996 re-election (8.52% over challenger Bob Dole, R), 379 electoral votes.
Re-election margin increase: +2.96%; Electoral vote increase: +9

• George W. Bush (R): 2000 first election (–0.52% in a three-way race losing the popular vote to, but prevailing in the Electoral College, over incumbent party nominee and Vice President Al Gore, D), 271 electoral votes; 2004 re-election (2.48% over challenger John Kerry, D), 286 electoral votes.
Re-election margin increase: +2.98%; Electoral vote increase: +15

Averages for those elected to a second term:
• Re-election margin increase (all 10 individuals) +4.13%
• Electoral vote increase (all 10 individuals) +31

• Re-election margin increase (9 individuals; minus Wilson, the only two-termer with less electoral votes) +6.31%
• Electoral vote increase (9 individuals; minus Wilson, the only two-termer with less electoral votes) +52

• Re-election margin increase (8 individuals; minus Wilson, the only two-termer with less electoral votes, and Nixon, also on the side of extremes who set a record gain far too uncommon) +4.30%
• Electoral vote increase (8 individuals; minus Wilson, the only two-termer with less electoral votes, and Nixon, also on the side of extremes who set a record gain far too uncommon) +31

An “average” re-election in 2012 for Obama? This hints that, if the president wins re-election, his historical average of a popular-vote margin would be between 11.39% to 13.57%. And Obama’s historical average of an electoral-vote count would be between 396 and 417. (Not factoring in reallocation of electoral votes here, nor other such applicable elections of two-term presidents of the past.) Does this mean I would predict the level of margin and/or electoral votes? Yes and no. I don’t discount anything; but I don’t buy into the notion that, with re-election, he would emerge like 1916 Woodrow Wilson, because the 28th president’s two elections were very different for a number of reasons (including realignment; Wilson was the only Democrat during a period for Republicans).

[Person Man]

a twelve point/55-43 victory for Obama would probably be what he has now plus Arizona, Missouri, Georgia and maybe something from the northern plains. That's probably everyone who would vote for him, right?

[backtored]

Coloradans have not become more "left-wing."  In fact, if you take the last 20 years out as a case study, the opposite might be more true.  Remember Tim Wirth, Pat Shroeder, Gary Hart, and Ben Nighthorse Campbell (D) in the 1970s?  Environmentalists moved to Colorado seeking a fresh, open lifestyle and turned Colorado politics to the left.  Then the oil-bust in thte 1980s crushed the economy and opened the door to investment in the 90s.  Focus on the Family, Doug Bruce, and most of Douglas County then entered the scene and turned the state dramatically to the right.

By the way, Bruce and Focus on the Family are both from California.  Most Californians who moved here in the 90s were conservative southern California families escaping the high taxes and shady morals of the new California.  They settled in Douglas and El Paso counties--GOP hotbeds in Colorado.

Most of the GOP gains in the late 1990s and the Democratic gains in the last several years have been artificial.  The GOP beat the Democrats at turnout, and now Democrats are winning that game and have been dominating the money game since Tim Gill and Pat Stryker figured out what a 527 was.  But the state remains mostly conservative, with liberal pockets in Boulder, parts of Denver, and the ski resorts.  We have a split legislature, the GOP has a edge in congressional seats, both senators are center-left Democrats, the governor is a centrist Democrat, the school board of education is Republican-controlled, and every other statewide office is in GOP hands.  Frankly, that's how Colorado politics has looked for a long, long time.  Independent, divided, and unpredictable.

Finally, the last census showed that the highest growth in Colorado is happening in Weld, El Paso, Douglas, and Mesa counties.  What do each of those counties have in common?  They are the most reliably Republican parts of the state.  Boulder and Denver counties, on the other hand, where Democrats cash in the most votes, have anaemic growth rates.  And Pueblo County, the conservative blue collar Democratic county, is trending Republican.  Democrats continue to win with moderate Democrats doing very well in Larimer, Jefferson, and Arapahoe counties.  But democraphics do not favor the Democrats, and Colorado will likely continue to grow more Republican as the GOP learns to match the liberal money advatnage that has held the state hostage.