Did John McCain win white Oklahoma Democrats?

[tpfkaw]

I bet he did.  By at least 10 points, I'd guess.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#OKP00p1

No.

[Hash]

Maybe he won registered white Democrats, given that Democrats dominate registration with like 48%.

[FloridaRepublican]

No he didn't, but it wouldn't surprise me if they did vote for the Republican candidate in the near future.

[tpfkaw]

Maybe he won registered white Democrats, given that Democrats dominate registration with like 48%.

That's what I meant.  Party registration, not identification.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Party registration, not identification.

Have a look at the county map; of course he did.

[Nichlemn]

Party registration, not identification.

Have a look at the county map; of course he did.

That isn't a reliable indicator, because no areas are close to 100% white Democrats. It's very easy to win a majority of a majority (or plurality) and still lose in a landslide if other groups are heavily against you. See for instance how 55% of voters disapproved of Bush and 57% of them voted for Obama, but 93% of the Bush approvers voting for McCain allowed McCain to win 65% of the vote.

[Nichlemn]

Maybe he won registered white Democrats, given that Democrats dominate registration with like 48%.

Let's crunch the numbers to see how likely this is. 48% of registered Oklahoma voters are Democrats according to the Oklahoma State Election Board. 41% of voters IDed as Democrats in 2008, and 30% of voters IDed as white Democrats. The latter voted 59-41% for Obama. We don't know but let's be generous and assume that virtually all of "lapsed Democrats" are white.

How would the 7% of "lapsed white Democrats" Democrats have to have voted in order for McCain to have won registered white Democrats overall? About 90% for McCain. Considering that McCain only won identified independents by a 64-36% margin and identified Republicans by 95-5%, this seems unlikely if the exit poll is accurate.

I would imagine the result was fairly close, though. Lapsed Democrats probably gave a higher percentage of their vote to McCain than independents. A decent number of independents are probably "Democrats in all but name". But if you're registered as a Democrat and still vote like one, you're probably going to ID as one too. My guess is that McCain won about 80% of lapsed Democrats, meaning he lost about 48-52 among registered white Democrats.

[Nichlemn]

No he didn't, but it wouldn't surprise me if they did vote for the Republican candidate in the near future.

Maybe one who wins statewide by an even bigger margin than McCain did. But I imagine the trend is negative because of lapsed Democrats dying off or getting around to changing their voter registrations. For instance, Reagan probably won white Democrats in 1980 despite the fact he won the state by a smaller margin than McCain (60-35%) because Oklahoma had many more registered Democrats then. 

[Nichlemn]

Something else that intrigues me is the fact that Obama only won non-white voters by a 62-38 margin according to the exit poll. Since about half of all non-white voters were Native American, perhaps McCain won them? Or maybe exit polling had a Republican bias for minorities. (This isn't as good an explanation as it might seem though, because it would also require a Democratic bias for whites, considering the exit polls and final results were very similar).

[Mechaman]

Something else that intrigues me is the fact that Obama only won non-white voters by a 62-38 margin according to the exit poll. Since about half of all non-white voters were Native American, perhaps McCain won them? Or maybe exit polling had a Republican bias for minorities. (This isn't as good an explanation as it might seem though, because it would also require a Democratic bias for whites, considering the exit polls and final results were very similar).

It probably has to do with the Native American voters.  In this state everybody and their grandmother identifies as "Native American" so the results could be skewed.  A lot of these people don't even look Native American and are so very white.  Quite a few of these people are indistinguishable from the average Republican voting white suburbanite and vote the same.  They are almost as annoying as the Irish, just with a lower SPF rating.
[/political incorrect rant]

[Gustaf]

Nichlemn: you seem to be assuming that all of the self-ID'd Democrats are registered Democrats. This is not necessarily true, since we're assuming that some of these voters are identifying themselves wrongly.

Also, I'd add that registered Democrats who don't even identify themselves as Democrats seem likely to be very GOP-voting.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What I mean by 'look at the county map' isn't McCain winning everywhere, but him winning by miles in the parts of the state that are overwhelmingly Democrat by tradition and presumably registration:



Of course in Oklahoma defining 'white' is potentially tricky.

[memphis]

What I mean by 'look at the county map' isn't McCain winning everywhere, but him winning by miles in the parts of the state that are overwhelmingly Democrat by tradition and presumably registration:



Of course in Oklahoma defining 'white' is potentially tricky.

A map of Oklahoma is deceptive. There are very few people in all but a few counties.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's not really true. Population map:



Anyways, just to make sure what I'm getting at is fairly clear, this is Oklahoma in 1988:

[memphis]

A majority of the population lives in either OKC metro or Tulsa metro. Granted, rural Oklahoma is not as empty as rural Nevada, but it is vary sparse nonetheless. Take a look at the CD map.

All the rural CDs approach either metro Tulsa or OKC and even then are quite large. There just aren't many folks living in little Dixie. Far more Dems in the cities, even if they are a minority there.

[Mechaman]

Very good analysis Realpolitik.

I think a lot of it has to do with the change in cultural values amongst the parties.  I mean that is why places that have always been Republican, especially Tulsa County, have gravitated very little in how they act in national elections while areas like Little Dixie have swung hard GOP in recent years.  Places like Tulsa County would still be GOP if the Republican Party of Oklahoma supported third trimester abortions and civil unions for gays, places like Okmulgee and McIntosh, traditionally Democratic, probably would cling to the Democratic Party if they nominate a centrist to the ticket.

Ironically the die hard loyalty of urbanites to business and the rural folks to traditional values seems to work well for the GOP in Oklahoma.