Future voting patterns....
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Beet
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« Reply #50 on: March 22, 2004, 07:28:22 PM »
« edited: March 22, 2004, 07:29:13 PM by Beet »

Don't you think thats because of the picture of the SWAT team guy pointing a automatic rifle at a 5-year old being held by his uncle in his own house? The administration of that event has passed now, and so have passions.
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opebo
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« Reply #51 on: March 22, 2004, 11:26:09 PM »

Ok, you are all probably right - PA is trending GOP, and Indiana is very politically static.

I was actually just thinking of PA as demographically and economically the most static state, forgetting the political focus here.
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12th Doctor
supersoulty
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« Reply #52 on: March 23, 2004, 12:16:50 AM »

Don't you think thats because of the picture of the SWAT team guy pointing a automatic rifle at a 5-year old being held by his uncle in his own house? The administration of that event has passed now, and so have passions.

I think that that may have had some effect, but I also think that the fact that Bush spent A LOT of time reaching out to the Cubans and hispanics in general had a lot to do with it too.
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12th Doctor
supersoulty
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« Reply #53 on: March 23, 2004, 12:18:47 AM »

Ok, you are all probably right - PA is trending GOP, and Indiana is very politically static.

I was actually just thinking of PA as demographically and economically the most static state, forgetting the political focus here.

Like I said before though, the New Dealers are dying off fast, so the demographic of this state is going to change a lot real soon.  It could fall as fast as 3 EV's by 2010.  And the state will swing GOP as the 30-49 Reaganites take over.
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12th Doctor
supersoulty
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« Reply #54 on: March 23, 2004, 01:09:18 AM »

No body answered my question:  How do you change the numbers for the EV's of the states?
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12th Doctor
supersoulty
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« Reply #55 on: March 23, 2004, 01:21:47 AM »

This is what I see for the EC by the 2020 election




The colors don't mean anything, I will post a map with the trends tomorrow.  Not enought time tonight, but these are my EC predictions.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #56 on: March 23, 2004, 04:36:38 AM »

Er... GOP % in the South were higher in 1988, 1984 and 1972 (usually around 70%)... and in the Deep South, 1964.
Virginia is clearly trending Democrat and Texas got more Republican as it got less Southern...

Check your facts before spewing partizan rubbish everywhere...
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CTguy
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« Reply #57 on: March 23, 2004, 09:55:31 AM »

I'm too lazy to make a map, but here's my predictions:



The Cuban vote isn't desolidifying, on the contrary, in 2000, Bush got a higher percentage of it than any candidate since Nixon.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/sfl-acubapoll21mar21,0,2025102.story?coll=sfla-news-sfla

The Cuban vote is in fact desolidifying if we are talking about future voting patterns...  a majority of Cubans born in the United States plan to vote against Bush this election...  While Bush is mainly popular in the over 65 anti-Castro community that is dying out.  Don't ask me how but I have a lot of connections in the Cuban community of South Florida and I know this group is definitely not going to go for Bush by a wide margin again...  

Also, if we are talking about the cuban community as a whole...  Cubans barely went for Bush last time.  The Cuban community in New Jersey and New York is staunchly democratic...  Lets not forget only half of Cubans live in the Miami metro area... the ones outside of there are not as unified in their voting...  

And like someone said the Elian Gonzalez thing galvanized and unified the Cuban vote last time... if you look at the last few elections before then the Cuban vote even in Florida had been trending dem...  Bush's brother being governor of Florida also probably helped...  If you factor out those two influences and had a controlled environment the vote would look very different...

Besides Cubans are now a minority of the Florida hispanic population so unless they vote as a 90% block the way black voters in the state do, they won't have much impact.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #58 on: March 23, 2004, 11:44:36 AM »
« Edited: March 23, 2004, 11:47:09 AM by Gustaf »

Here's a map of the 1964 election with battleground states (within 5% of national average) in green, blue for Goldwater and red for LBJ. Just to give a little perspective on trends...







Dem: 207 EVs

Rep: 163

Tossup: 168
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Gustaf
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« Reply #59 on: March 23, 2004, 11:54:13 AM »

The close election of 1976, with wrong EV stats on the map this time...grey for tossups.

Dem: 115

Rep: 102

Tossup: 321



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12th Doctor
supersoulty
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« Reply #60 on: March 23, 2004, 11:57:32 AM »

The SW will not trend Dem.  The most growth in Nevada, for instance, isn't from hispanics, but from middle class white who are moving to Las Vegas, which has an increasingly vibrant and diverse economy.  Colorado, same thing except Denver, not Vegas.  The growth among hispanics mirrors the economic groups of the whites.  GOP holds the west.

As for the south, it is more GOP today than ever in history.  Occaisonal Dem strength is not a sign of them making inroads, but a sign of their last dying breaths after holding the place for 150 years.  Case in point, as Texas grew and became more diverse and metropolitan to become what it is today, the state suddenly decided to throw out Anne Richards in favor of George W. Bush in 1994 and handed the Republicans control of the state legislature in 2002.  When Texas was the backwater rural state of Lyndon Johnson, it was reliably Democrat, but it has voted Republican for President in every cycle since 1976, even when the Dems put a Texan on the bottom of the ticket in 1988, a southerner at the top in 1980 and 2000,  and two southerners on the ticket in 1992 and 1996.  As the Carolinas and Georgia become urban and wealthy, don't expect them to vote like Washington and New York.

Finally, Florida.  This state leans strongly GOP for everything except President.  The reason, as someone said is the FDR era Dems who retired to Florida and support Dems on the Social Security issue.  They will die off or Social Security will go bankrupt, whichever comes first, and the Dems will lose their only card in FL.  GOP holds.

Note that I said that the corols on my map don't mean anything.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #61 on: March 23, 2004, 12:05:22 PM »

1988:

Dem: 146

Rep: 191

Tossup: 201



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Gustaf
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« Reply #62 on: March 23, 2004, 12:17:24 PM »

1956:

Dem: 131

Rep: 148

Tossup (green): 252

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dunn
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« Reply #63 on: March 23, 2004, 12:22:10 PM »

how do you put the green?
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Gustaf
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« Reply #64 on: March 23, 2004, 12:23:10 PM »


In the EC calcualtors for previous election Leip put in indepednent for some, so I use that to get the right EV-numbers on the map...
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12th Doctor
supersoulty
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« Reply #65 on: March 23, 2004, 12:26:59 PM »

I'm too lazy to make a map, but here's my predictions:



The Cuban vote isn't desolidifying, on the contrary, in 2000, Bush got a higher percentage of it than any candidate since Nixon.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/sfl-acubapoll21mar21,0,2025102.story?coll=sfla-news-sfla

The Cuban vote is in fact desolidifying if we are talking about future voting patterns...  a majority of Cubans born in the United States plan to vote against Bush this election...  While Bush is mainly popular in the over 65 anti-Castro community that is dying out.  Don't ask me how but I have a lot of connections in the Cuban community of South Florida and I know this group is definitely not going to go for Bush by a wide margin again...  

Also, if we are talking about the cuban community as a whole...  Cubans barely went for Bush last time.  The Cuban community in New Jersey and New York is staunchly democratic...  Lets not forget only half of Cubans live in the Miami metro area... the ones outside of there are not as unified in their voting...  

And like someone said the Elian Gonzalez thing galvanized and unified the Cuban vote last time... if you look at the last few elections before then the Cuban vote even in Florida had been trending dem...  Bush's brother being governor of Florida also probably helped...  If you factor out those two influences and had a controlled environment the vote would look very different...

Besides Cubans are now a minority of the Florida hispanic population so unless they vote as a 90% block the way black voters in the state do, they won't have much impact.

To be honest, I sometimes forget that there is a Cuban community outside of FL and that they do tend to Dem.  So I'll give you that.  If these statistics are true, then it does seem that you have a point there, because I can honestly say that I hadn't seen anything like them before.  So my mistake.

But, I believe that the pull that racial politics now has on our nation will soon disipate.  Why you ask?  The emergence of Hispanics as the #1 minority group in the country possed an enourmous conundrum to the Dems.  They have to find a way to reach-out to young Hispanic voters without alienating young black voters.  I simply don't think it can be done.  The result will be that, one way or the other, the Dems will have no chioce, but to stop playing racial politics and if that occurse then there will be a huge change in the electorate.

I honestly believe that the first black or Hispanic president, whomever he or she maybe, will be a Republican, because the Republicans will be the only party that won't play it up into a big deal.  

If that person is a Democrat then the Dems won't be able to handle the concept maturely.  I don't mean all Dems, but I'm sure that the Dem leadership would be unable to do so.  If they do that then they will lose and the cause of having a non-caucasian president will probably be held back another 20 years.

No offense meant, that's just the way I feel.
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dunn
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« Reply #66 on: March 23, 2004, 12:31:18 PM »


thanks
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MarkDel
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« Reply #67 on: March 23, 2004, 12:31:55 PM »

Supersoulty,

I agree. The first Black or Hispanic President of the United States will come from the Republican Party. Why? Because the Republicans will nominate a minority candidate who is an American first, a Republican second and a minority third. The Democrats will nominuate someone who is a Democrat first, a minority second, a "citizen of the world" third, and an American fourth!!!
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Gustaf
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« Reply #68 on: March 23, 2004, 12:35:36 PM »

Supersoulty,

I agree. The first Black or Hispanic President of the United States will come from the Republican Party. Why? Because the Republicans will nominate a minority candidate who is an American first, a Republican second and a minority third. The Democrats will nominuate someone who is a Democrat first, a minority second, a "citizen of the world" third, and an American fourth!!!

Lol...there's a point to that...
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12th Doctor
supersoulty
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« Reply #69 on: March 23, 2004, 12:36:28 PM »

Supersoulty,

I agree. The first Black or Hispanic President of the United States will come from the Republican Party. Why? Because the Republicans will nominate a minority candidate who is an American first, a Republican second and a minority third. The Democrats will nominuate someone who is a Democrat first, a minority second, a "citizen of the world" third, and an American fourth!!!

Exactly my point.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #70 on: March 23, 2004, 12:38:23 PM »

Supersoulty,

I agree. The first Black or Hispanic President of the United States will come from the Republican Party. Why? Because the Republicans will nominate a minority candidate who is an American first, a Republican second and a minority third. The Democrats will nominuate someone who is a Democrat first, a minority second, a "citizen of the world" third, and an American fourth!!!

Exactly my point.

The counter-argument id of course that a Democratic minority candidate would probably stand a much better chance of winning.
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #71 on: March 23, 2004, 12:52:54 PM »

Supersoulty,

I agree. The first Black or Hispanic President of the United States will come from the Republican Party. Why? Because the Republicans will nominate a minority candidate who is an American first, a Republican second and a minority third. The Democrats will nominuate someone who is a Democrat first, a minority second, a "citizen of the world" third, and an American fourth!!!

Exactly my point.

The counter-argument id of course that a Democratic minority candidate would probably stand a much better chance of winning.

The Dem canidate would be a lot more radical.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #72 on: March 23, 2004, 12:54:27 PM »

Supersoulty,

I agree. The first Black or Hispanic President of the United States will come from the Republican Party. Why? Because the Republicans will nominate a minority candidate who is an American first, a Republican second and a minority third. The Democrats will nominuate someone who is a Democrat first, a minority second, a "citizen of the world" third, and an American fourth!!!

Exactly my point.

The counter-argument id of course that a Democratic minority candidate would probably stand a much better chance of winning.

The Dem canidate would be a lot more radical.

Not necessarily.
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #73 on: March 23, 2004, 12:56:36 PM »

Supersoulty,

I agree. The first Black or Hispanic President of the United States will come from the Republican Party. Why? Because the Republicans will nominate a minority candidate who is an American first, a Republican second and a minority third. The Democrats will nominuate someone who is a Democrat first, a minority second, a "citizen of the world" third, and an American fourth!!!

Exactly my point.

The counter-argument id of course that a Democratic minority candidate would probably stand a much better chance of winning.

The Dem canidate would be a lot more radical.

Not necessarily.

Yes they would be.  99 percent of all elected black politicans that are Dems are lunatics.  The only one I see that isn't is Harold Ford.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #74 on: March 23, 2004, 12:57:31 PM »

Supersoulty,

I agree. The first Black or Hispanic President of the United States will come from the Republican Party. Why? Because the Republicans will nominate a minority candidate who is an American first, a Republican second and a minority third. The Democrats will nominuate someone who is a Democrat first, a minority second, a "citizen of the world" third, and an American fourth!!!

Exactly my point.

The counter-argument id of course that a Democratic minority candidate would probably stand a much better chance of winning.

The Dem canidate would be a lot more radical.

Not necessarily.

Yes they would be.  99 percent of all elected black politicans that are Dems are lunatics.  The only one I see that isn't is Harold Ford.

WE're talking about a distant future, and it doesn't have to be a black. It could be a Hispanic, or even a Jew, as long as it can be considered an ethnical minority.
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