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March 03, 2015, 07:12:16 pm
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| |-+  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Bacon King, Dallasfan65)
| | |-+  Between Two Majorities: 2014-2030.
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Author Topic: Between Two Majorities: 2014-2030.  (Read 5435 times)
Reagan Revolutionary
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« Reply #100 on: March 02, 2015, 09:43:49 pm »
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Still enjoying it, and I agreed with your analysis about the Clintons and the black vote. Do you think then that ITTL O'Malley might have done well among African-Americans in the primary?

Apologies for missing this. No. I don't think so. O'Malley saw his Lieutenant Governor lose - and this is in a state that has among the highest African American populations in the country, I think ... so I don't think O'Malley is that type to win African American voters ... (I imagine a lot just stayed home).  Their choices weren't appetizing in either case; a white liberal who focused on social issues or Hillary Clinton so ...
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« Reply #101 on: March 02, 2015, 09:58:44 pm »
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http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=203474.msg4507542#msg4507542

Please see this for the latest article; some of you may be inclined to click on Page 5 and miss that story. It's about the Clinton and Walker scandals.
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« Reply #102 on: Today at 02:17:23 pm »
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Second Presidential and third debate.

Summary: I'm going to do a tl;dr on the second and third presidential debates, because essentially, I want to do election night now and I've written like tens of thousands of words at this point about election 2016. Clinton recovered in the second debate, and dominated it, partially because the topic was foreign policy. Walker's a Governor, she's a former Secretary of State. Third debate, Walker recovered, won by a slight margin. Topics included energy (he won), tax reform (he won again), ethics (she got in a good shot in about John Doe probes), budget deficits (tie; she got in a good word about Walker's Wisconsin budget 2013-2015, he got in a good word about needing to reduce the deficits and debt blah blah blah). Entitlement reforms, slight edge to Walker, who made the case for reform, but Clinton landed strong blows about the Walker ideas.

Final poll had Walker up 49-48% in Pew, Gallup had 48-48%, Rasmussen 49-48% Clinton. No late breaking scandals happened; etc etc. Walker and Clinton are fighting for a handful of states.

Let's do election night.
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« Reply #103 on: Today at 02:38:30 pm »
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7:00 PM EST

Jim: "Good evening, and welcome to Election Night 2016. On tap tonight is a Presidential race, 34 U.S. Senate races, the entire House of Representatives, and 13 governorships. Republican Governor Scott Kevin Walker is facing off against Democratic former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, for the Presidency, in what's expected to be a very close race.

We're going to the map, at this hour, at the 7:00 hour. Bob?"

Bob: "Well, Jim, we're now projecting that Governor Scott Walker has won Indiana, Kentucky, and Georgia, while Vermont has gone Democratic. None of this represents a surprise, at this hour. We're seeing the Governor posting considerable margins in these red states, and all of these states went the same way they're going tonight, four years ago."

"Bob, thanks for the heads up. We're also being told that Senator Rand Paul, Republican of Kentucky, has won re-election to the U.S. Senate from Kentucky, with about 57% of the vote, according to our models. We're also hearing that Senator Dan Coats has also coasted to re-election in Indiana, with 58% of the vote according to our models, in Indiana. Johnny Isakson, another Republican from Georgia, also has won re-election at this hour."

"Jim, you're overlooking the governors. We know that Peter Shumlin, after his 2014 scare, is doing much better tonight, and analysts are expecting Shumlin to prevail in Vermont with 55% of the vote, tonight. Mike Pence, also in fairly good shape, after his narrow 49-46% win four years ago. We're not ready to project the governorship of Indiana, just yet, though."  

"Bob, can we extrapolate anything from these results? At this hour? Anything from the exit polls?"

"Jim, nothing meaningful. We need to see more results and our team is matching exit polls with the results in specific counties to see what we can draw, in terms of conclusions."



Presidency

Walker: 35
Clinton: 3
Undecided: 0 (of states closed)

Senate

33 Republicans - 36 Democrats

House of Representatives

(We're not doing the House. I don't want to calculate all the gains and losses). There'll be commentary along the night).
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« Reply #104 on: Today at 02:48:06 pm »
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7:20 PM EST

"Bob, we're back at the 7:20 hour, with more calls. The state of Virginia, we're reporting, is too close to call, at this hour. We're not seeing many reports out of there, although traditionally, Virginia results are late in the evening, because it takes a while for Fairfax and the north counties to return, while the South comes in first. South Carolina, we're seeing Tim Scott re-elected, with an astounding 68% of the vote, first African American Senator since reconstruction. No change in that state's House delegation. We're not seeing any change in Kentucky's delegation, or Vermont's, or at this point, Georgia. But we'll keep you updated."

"Jim, we're also projecting that Governor Walker has won the state of South Carolina."

Presidency: Walker - Clinton - Undecided: 44-3-13.
Senate: 34 Republicans - 36 Democrats

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« Reply #105 on: Today at 02:59:00 pm »
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7:30 PM EST

Jim: "Melanie,  welcome to the election night crew here. First of all, we have some news for you. It's now the 7:30 PM hour, on the East Coast, and we have some information. We're going to go to Bob, who will relay that information. Bob?"

Bob: "We're now projecting that North Carolina is too close to call. Senator Richard Burr, who faced second tier opposition, has been re-elected to the U.S. Senate. Kay Hagan took a pass here, and the energy went towards the gubernatorial race, which we cannot project at this hour, by the way. Burr, winning 53% of the vote, at this hour, although that may go up, may not. Democrats are seeing this as kind of a missed opportunity, Presidential style turnout going on here. Ohio, also another state too close to call. Rob Portman, the Republican vice presidential nomination, we can't project his re-election to the U.S. Senate just yet. It's an interesting state of affairs there. West Virginia, Republican for Walker. The gubernatorial race cannot be called at this point, between Joe Manchin and David McKinley, Republican. Polls showed Manchin with an edge going into this race, but West Virginia has become rapidly more Republican in the last several years, on the state level."



(Green: Undecided).

Presidency: Walker - Clinton - Undecided: 49-3-46.
Senate: 34 Republicans - 36 Democrats

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« Reply #106 on: Today at 03:15:11 pm »
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8:00 PM EST Hour

Melanie: "OK, the 8:00 hour has come up and we're ready to make some projections. So far, the map is not looking that different from 2012, really. We're now projecting Florida, Maine, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan all too close to call. We're projecting that Secretary Clinton has won the states of Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Washington DC, Illinois. Republican Governor Scott Walker has won Missouri, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, and Oklahoma. Now, before we move onto the Senate and gubernatorial races, there has been some discussion over the Maine numbers. Bill?"

Bill: "Melanie, thanks for that run down. We're seeing some numbers out of Maine and exit polling indicated that it is a very close race. Two years ago, Governor Paul LePage won re-election to Maine's governorship, 60% turnout there, and what we're seeing tonight, Governor Walker tapping into blue collar white resentment, a lot of blue collar white votes are going for him tonight. But we're seeing if Maine will stay Democratic as it did four years ago, or if Maine will flip tonight."

Jim: "Thanks, we'll see. Now onto the Senate races. Folks - first the big popular vote map. Roughly 2-3% precincts reporting nationwide."

Walker: 1,890,853 - 54.19%
Clinton: 1,549,719 - 44.42%
Others: 48,4864 - 1.39%

Jim: "We'll have some updated numbers for you, from the key battleground states, for you, at 8:30 PM. We're going to roll out some numbers. And in a few moments we'll have the Senate and gubernatorial races covered."



Presidency: Walker - Clinton - Undecided: 92-75-119.

(I'm taking a break now, we'll resume in a few hours).
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« Reply #107 on: Today at 03:20:34 pm »
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Keep up the great work!
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« Reply #108 on: Today at 06:45:38 pm »
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It's rare I adjust an article, because I think there are so many errors in it. In the Senate recap I had published a while ago here, three states had Democratic nominees that aren't simply likely at this point. The new analysis is below. To wit, Russ Feingold is now the Democratic nominee in Wisconsin, Ted Strickland the Democratic nominee in Ohio, and Pat Murphy is the Democratic nominee in Florida. I apologize; more due diligence should have been done before making the article.

More information below, including the competitive governor races.

==============

A number of changes are being waved through.

The Ohio Senate race is no longer a cake walk. Ted Strickland is battling Rob Portman and Portman has held a lead throughout the fall campaign. He has been focused on being the vice presidential running mate, and is running 5-7% points ahead of Strickland. The Ohio Republican Party has been doing much of the leg room, with Portman flying in to rallies at times, for both Walker/Portman and his re-election. The fact that Ohio is a battleground state helps him.

Wisconsin, simply replace Ron Kind with Russ Feingold. But instead of Feingold leading, both men have been roughly in a dead heat all campaign long. In Florida, Rubio is facing off Pat Murphy. Everything else is the same.

Pat McCrory is battling Attorney General Roy Cooper. In Missouri, Catherine Hanaway is the Republican candidate versus Chris Koster. For U.S. Senate Roy Blunt is facing off Secretary Kinder. In Oregon, Gov. Kate Brown is facing off Dennis Richardson, the 2014 nominee. In Montana, it looks like Steve Bullock has token opposition.  NH is also close, with Maggie Hassan versus Kelly Ayotte.

Joe Manchin is facing off Bill Cole, West Virginia Senate President. Kamala Harris is the Democratic nominee in California, while Chris van Hollen is the Democratic nominee in Maryland.

================

Anyway let's get back to it.
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« Reply #109 on: Today at 07:00:22 pm »
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8:15 PM EST

"And a few calls for the U.S. Senate races and a few gubernatorial races. Senator Marco Rubio has defeated Patrick Murphy, 52-46%, much closer than his win six years ago. Rubio has won the Cuban community and both sides thought him a strong contender. After Patrick Murphy clinched the Democratic nomination against Debbie Wasserman Schultz, he began as the underdog. But we've seen Murphy close the race and he starts out a strong contender for Florida Governor in 2018, possibly.

In Connecticut, you'll see on the big board that Richard Blumenthal has been re-elected to the U.S. Senate. In Maryland, Representative Chris van Hollen moves up to the U.S. Senate, as he defeats token Republican opposition. The Pennsylvania race between Pat Toomey and Joe Sestak is too close to call, and Illinois, likewise, between Tammy Duckworth and Mark Kirk. In Missouri, we're able to project that Roy Blunt has won re-election against Secretary of State Jason Kander, 55-44%. Kelly Ayotte is still battling Maggie Hassan in a close battle.

Richard Sessions and James Lankford, both Republicans, coast to re-election in Alabama and Oklahoma, respectively."

Walker - Clinton - Others

Scott Walker: 3,038,871 - 51.66% - 92 electoral votes
Hillary Clinton: 2,762,543 - 46.96% - 75 electoral votes
Others: 81,420 - 1.38%

U.S. Senate

Republicans: 39
Democrats: 38
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« Reply #110 on: Today at 07:11:24 pm »
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8:30 PM EST

Melanie: "And now we have a call in Arkansas. Scott Walker has taken the state, roughly 57-41%, showing that Secretary Clinton isn't pulling in the kind of white support her husband did in the 1990s.  

Bob: "We have no projections for the Governorship of Missouri. Former Republican State House Speaker Catherine Hanaway is in a race against Attorney General Chris Koster. Bill, any sense of the trendlines at this hour?"

Bill: "We're seeing that Secretary Clinton is holding the Democratic base but she isn't expanding it. Blue collar whites are moving towards the Walker camp, from what we're seeing, but Latinos, and other minority groups have stuck with Secretary Clinton. It's going to be a very close race. The popular vote is narrowing as more states come in. We're going to see more information coming in."

9:01 PM EST

Melanie: "We have a new round of projections to come.  We're projecting now that Secretary Clinton has carried New York, New Mexico, while Governor Walker has carried Louisiana, Nebraska, Kansas, Wyoming, Arizona, Texas, North Dakota, and South Dakota. Wisconsin, Minnesota, Colorado, they're all too close to call at this hour."

Bill: "We're looking at a number of Senate races and we'll have some information for you as well as gubernatorial races. We'll have them for you in a few moments."

Scott Walker (Republican): 7,563,413 - 52.65%
Hillary Clinton (Democratic): 6,603,153 - 45.96%
Others: 199,672 - 1.39%



Totals:  14,366,238
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